wayneL
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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
I believe there is an exception that applies here, that it can in a highly leveraged market, but only on a daily chart.
But as I say, I'm new at EW and would be interested to know if anyone can put a good explination as to why this exception shouldn't apply here.
I believe there is an exception that applies here, that it can in a highly leveraged market, but only on a daily chart.
But as I say, I'm new at EW and would be interested to know if anyone can put a good explination as to why this exception shouldn't apply here.
Whiskers
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wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: XAO Analysis
A leading diagonal is also a 5 wave pattern (identified by Frost and Prechter) that can form wave one of an impulse of a larger degree. In the leading diagonal, wave 4 CAN overlap wave 1, however, the pattern is a converging one, whereas the current pattern in XAO is diverging.
This destroys its potential as a diagonal.
What do ya mean by a dioganal?
A leading diagonal is also a 5 wave pattern (identified by Frost and Prechter) that can form wave one of an impulse of a larger degree. In the leading diagonal, wave 4 CAN overlap wave 1, however, the pattern is a converging one, whereas the current pattern in XAO is diverging.
This destroys its potential as a diagonal.
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Re: XAO Analysis
I have been working and trading from this chart. I posted this chart originally in the Elliot Wave Analysis Thread about 2 months back. The arrows I put in back then, and are what I expected the pattern of trend to trace out shown by the arrows and trendlines.
As you can see the market overran the expected timeframe for the peak by about 2 weeks. But the pattern of trend appears to be correct(so far) and intact. The initial rally off the lows at on the 22/1 was clearly 3 waves. the subsequent move down has been 3 waves, and the last rally has been 3 waves. This is getting easy isn't it fellas? So what is the most probable wave structure to follow? Most likely another 3 wave structure. These past patterns can gives possible(not certain) clues to the future patterns. I should think there is good chance the last low will act as some type of temporary support fo the sideways pattern.
The projection for sub 5000 I will stick with for now.
Hope this Helps
Cheers
I have been working and trading from this chart. I posted this chart originally in the Elliot Wave Analysis Thread about 2 months back. The arrows I put in back then, and are what I expected the pattern of trend to trace out shown by the arrows and trendlines.
As you can see the market overran the expected timeframe for the peak by about 2 weeks. But the pattern of trend appears to be correct(so far) and intact. The initial rally off the lows at on the 22/1 was clearly 3 waves. the subsequent move down has been 3 waves, and the last rally has been 3 waves. This is getting easy isn't it fellas? So what is the most probable wave structure to follow? Most likely another 3 wave structure. These past patterns can gives possible(not certain) clues to the future patterns. I should think there is good chance the last low will act as some type of temporary support fo the sideways pattern.
The projection for sub 5000 I will stick with for now.
Hope this Helps
Cheers
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Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Again, according to my literature a diagonal (triangle) is most often converging, but can be diverging, albeit uncommon.
Also, wave one of an impulse doesn't necessairly have to be a converging diagonal.
But I'll work on it more over the weekend.
Again, according to my literature a diagonal (triangle) is most often converging, but can be diverging, albeit uncommon.
Also, wave one of an impulse doesn't necessairly have to be a converging diagonal.
But I'll work on it more over the weekend.
Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
We're probably lucky we have Monday off for the hysteria to dissipate, and then we'll have the chance to take in the likely US recovery on Monday. Although, quite happy gold has had a stiffy.
We're probably lucky we have Monday off for the hysteria to dissipate, and then we'll have the chance to take in the likely US recovery on Monday. Although, quite happy gold has had a stiffy.
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Re: XAO Analysis
That should be the end major wave A down, probably no later than November. As you can see it will most likely be a 3 wave structure down. After that I am a bull and would expect a good 1 year rally. Will have some good Cycles Analsyis to help us out as to when rally will be building up. I am quite confident we in a fourth wave here relative to crash of 87 wave 2 which was sharp correction. Law of Alternation guides to wave 4 being sideways or rangebound.
refer to charts 1 and 2 of the following post months back:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258027&postcount=2842
Regarding Ending Diagonals
the following chart is an example of an ending diagonal before the market changes direction abruptly:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=239019&postcount=96
That should be the end major wave A down, probably no later than November. As you can see it will most likely be a 3 wave structure down. After that I am a bull and would expect a good 1 year rally. Will have some good Cycles Analsyis to help us out as to when rally will be building up. I am quite confident we in a fourth wave here relative to crash of 87 wave 2 which was sharp correction. Law of Alternation guides to wave 4 being sideways or rangebound.
refer to charts 1 and 2 of the following post months back:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258027&postcount=2842
Regarding Ending Diagonals
the following chart is an example of an ending diagonal before the market changes direction abruptly:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=239019&postcount=96
Lucky_Country
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Re: XAO Analysis
Doubt we will see the previous lows again.
Does anyone theink they can pick BHP up at $33 again or maybe WPL, STO, RIO back to the levels they were at the last market bottom.
Oil at record highs, massive gas deals being done, Coal price rocketing.
The banks well they have been struggling but the Australian banks have proven to be well placed to handle the sub prime crisis.
Time will tell but our market is prepared to handle the worst.
Doubt we will see the previous lows again.
Does anyone theink they can pick BHP up at $33 again or maybe WPL, STO, RIO back to the levels they were at the last market bottom.
Oil at record highs, massive gas deals being done, Coal price rocketing.
The banks well they have been struggling but the Australian banks have proven to be well placed to handle the sub prime crisis.
Time will tell but our market is prepared to handle the worst.
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Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
We could see the lows again and a bit further, but it just depends on your investment horizon and how you deal with this. Are you a trader or long term investor? This is the problem with a lot of the discussuion here. The trend since 1900 is up.
Lucky_Country
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Re: XAO Analysis
Margin calls were the curse of the previous drop and alot have exited their positions already.
Oil majors will profit bigtime when the market re opens on Tuesday and that includes BHP which as well all know moves the ASX more than any company.
Margin calls were the curse of the previous drop and alot have exited their positions already.
Oil majors will profit bigtime when the market re opens on Tuesday and that includes BHP which as well all know moves the ASX more than any company.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Longterm or short term its going to hit the pocket.
Either from stops or unrealised loss or a munch out of unrealised profit.
Then ofcourse there is the short side.
Longterm or short term its going to hit the pocket.
Either from stops or unrealised loss or a munch out of unrealised profit.
Then ofcourse there is the short side.
wayneL
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Re: XAO Analysis
But BHP is waaaay off its NYSE highs, barely up much at all. Add in some exchange rate change from Friday and it could even be negative on the ASX.
Re: XAO Analysis
Lucky? I'd say we could be very unlucky because i'm sure many would be wanting to dump holdings first thing Monday morning in case the US follows through with another horror night, which is very likely since several stocks i noticed closed exactly at their day low. Watch the sheer panic Tuesday morning if that does eventuate. As for being happy that gold rose $25 or whatever, i think that at best goldies will only hold steady on Tuesday, but who knows what gold will do Monday anyway.
We're probably lucky we have Monday off for the hysteria to dissipate, and then we'll have the chance to take in the likely US recovery on Monday. Although, quite happy gold has had a stiffy.
Lucky? I'd say we could be very unlucky because i'm sure many would be wanting to dump holdings first thing Monday morning in case the US follows through with another horror night, which is very likely since several stocks i noticed closed exactly at their day low. Watch the sheer panic Tuesday morning if that does eventuate. As for being happy that gold rose $25 or whatever, i think that at best goldies will only hold steady on Tuesday, but who knows what gold will do Monday anyway.
Lucky_Country
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Re: XAO Analysis
Lets hope the IO contracts are finalised soon that should give the market a boost especially if they suprise on the upside.
Lets hope the IO contracts are finalised soon that should give the market a boost especially if they suprise on the upside.
IFocus
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Re: XAO Analysis
Most of the stocks hit by margin calls on the last trip south were pretty much basket cases any way. Being in down trends for some time as institution's moved to reduce their risk exposure.
Rising oil price is going to feed back into commodities and economy's in general maybe it will take time may be not.
An oil shock will dent the consumer immediately every where.
My SMSF is still waiting since November 07 for 4800 maybe it will come maybe it wont.
S&P chart from last nigh......thats a big candle down
.
Most of the stocks hit by margin calls on the last trip south were pretty much basket cases any way. Being in down trends for some time as institution's moved to reduce their risk exposure.
Rising oil price is going to feed back into commodities and economy's in general maybe it will take time may be not.
An oil shock will dent the consumer immediately every where.
My SMSF is still waiting since November 07 for 4800 maybe it will come maybe it wont.
S&P chart from last nigh......thats a big candle down
.
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Re: XAO Analysis
You better believe it. Looks like the Aussie construction industry just fell off a cliff: http://economics.hia.com.au/publications/PCI.aspx. HIA/AIG PCI index was down for April and nose-dived for May. Also, house prices are down, so we just might be following the rest of the world, if about 12 months late.
A consumer-led recession is still possible even if mining holds up. 4800 here we come.
Rising oil price is going to feed back into commodities and economy's in general maybe it will take time may be not.
An oil shock will dent the consumer immediately every where.
My SMSF is still waiting since November 07 for 4800 maybe it will come maybe it wont.
You better believe it. Looks like the Aussie construction industry just fell off a cliff: http://economics.hia.com.au/publications/PCI.aspx. HIA/AIG PCI index was down for April and nose-dived for May. Also, house prices are down, so we just might be following the rest of the world, if about 12 months late.
A consumer-led recession is still possible even if mining holds up. 4800 here we come.
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