XAO Technical Analysis

$20shoes · 3 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Possible sticking point tomorrow?? According to an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the XAO is now at a point of resistance (see blue cloud above today's price action). The clous represents a dynamic region of support/resistance.

The lagging Chikou span (jagged purple line) is simply the price action displaced backwards by 26 days, and it has some candles it needs to clear (see brown ellipse around 25th Feb) before a more bullish posture can be assumed.

All the other ellipses on the chart are simply highlighted points of support resistance to show the chart may have some merit.

mickqld · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry for not learning how to post a chart but it appears to me that the DOW , FTSE and ASX charts are all showing on a 10 year weekly cycle a bullish crossover on the MACD. It has been at least 6 months or longer on these 3 indices since there has been a positive MACD cross. May just be indicating a positive turn for a while on the markets.
Comments and criticisms welcome please,

MRC & Co · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

mickqld said:
It has been at least 6 months or longer on these 3 indices since there has been a positive MACD cross. May just be indicating a positive turn for a while on the markets.

You got it.

Just showing what has happened in the markets recently (they have gone up), lagging indicator remember.

Whiskers · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

$20shoes said:
Possible sticking point tomorrow?? According to an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the XAO is now at a point of resistance (see blue cloud above today's price action). The clous represents a dynamic region of support/resistance.

Todays close is pushing against the Bollinger band and your blue cloud $20shoes. The stockastics suggest it has about run it's run for the moment, but another small rise day will make a good neckline for an inverse head and shoulders. Ease off for a few days before charging onwards and upwards.

Tech/a, your leg up looks good to me, but is there a particular reason you think the 5th leg will go so low? I'm not an EW expert.

Edit: Actually if an inverse head a shoulders does form there is a good chance it may invalidate your count, tech/a.

MRC & Co · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Tech, couple of questions. Doesnt EW generally only involve 3 waves down? Layman speak.

Also out of interest, do you ever add geometry to your EW?

tech/a · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Firstly I'm no Elliott Expert. Id say a basic and evolving understanding.
Began dabbling 10 yrs ago and only really seriously looking at it around 12-18 mths ago. One of the few "forward looking" forms of analysis with credence ---in my view.

W
The higher this move goes the shorter the last leg.
As Elliott is dyanamic in form it could also invalidate the current count and Ive marked on the chart where that is.

MRC
Geometry--in basic form ie wave lengths with the addition of time that would bring in some geometry,other than that no. What did you have in mind.

Corrective moves can be 3 waves as in ABC
Larger moves consist of 5 waves down and 3 waves in the up moves.
The 5 waves down form the "A" of a larger 3 wave ABC pattern.

wayneL · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Tech, couple of questions. Doesnt EW generally only involve 3 waves down? Layman speak.

Also out of interest, do you ever add geometry to your EW?

Not all corrective wave patterns are 3 waves. There are more complicated correctives such as triangles (5 waves), double & triple zig-zags. double & triple 3s... and there is nothing to stop a impulse on a down leg.

There is also the question of degree, which can muddy the waters (and have EW theorists punching each other's lights out)

Trembling Hand · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

$20shoes said:
The lagging Chikou span (jagged purple line) is simply the price action displaced backwards by 26 days.

In that case is it just another line for the sake of another line??

MRC & Co · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks fellas,

Nothing in mind really Tech, just finished reading "Trading the SPI" (thats about book number 15 in the last couple months and still havent scratched the surface of my pile!!!! EEEK!) and was interested to see Brett Penfold add geometry to EW in his "triple reversal point swing trading strategy". Also saw him talk about Frank Dilernia (something like that) and his Fibonnaci pivots Wayne.

I never knew you used EW Wayne? Is it one of the things you studied on your way to establishing your trading plan, or something you actually use day to day? Guess the former from observation.

Cheers

$20shoes · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
in that case is it just another line for the sake of another line??

Cloud charts are messy looking but each line has its place. The Japanese have been using Cloud charts since the 1960s. The process took 20 years to perfect starting in the 1940s; it is still commonly used in Japanese markets today. The cloud charts also use wave analysis btw. At a basic level, the study looks for stalling points within a larger move 9, 18 and 26 days ahead. They combine this with the thickness of the cloud plotted 26 days ahead of today's price action to see if the cloud and wave will give an idea of when the market is likely to change trend. Ichimoku day counts are plotted from intermediate his/lows and look for clusters similar to Fibo. However, the study uses a Timespan principle of 9, 18, 26, 33, 42, 65, 76, 129, 172 and 257

Regarding the Chikou span, take a look at my original chart once more. See how the Chikou crosses through the candles on or about the 5th Oct 2007. Now from that point on, trace the line with your eye and tell me what happens each time it hits a candle cluster? (Don't forget that this line represents the price action from 26 days into the future.)...I can count four times where the Chikou has faithfully respected the candles as resistance; and very obviously so. So potentially, it is more than just another line; if it works well on a stock/index (its not always so obvious), it might help us determine how bullish or bearish our posture.

some ichimoku cycles as applied to XAO in pic below (we take the bars) -

wayneL · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
I never knew you used EW Wayne? Is it one of the things you studied on your way to establishing your trading plan, or something you actually use day to day? Guess the former from observation.

Cheers

I worked for a short time at an EW software firm as trader and had a minor hand in writing their EW course. (It was well dodgy financially, so I left.)

I don't annotate the charts or really think about EW per se, but I do mentally note wave structure. I've probably forgotten more about it than I remember, but yes, I use it in a very loose and liberal sense.

nomore4s · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Also saw him talk about Frank Dilernia (something like that) and his Fibonnaci pivots Wayne.

I'm pretty sure Frank posts on this site occasionally.

nomore4s · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Todays bar has a very tight range with high volume and a weakish close.

A warning shot maybe? This wave up may continue for awhile longer but todays bar looks like it might be running out of steam. Some effort in that bar for not much result.

I would also like to see some support around the white box on the next leg down for a continued bullish argument. This area is around the 50% level of this move up from the bottom as well as having that small area of consolidation.

But I do think we will at least test the 5200 level again at some stage.

My

IFocus · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi $20shoes

Thanks for the commentary on Cloud charts have seen others (Kauri / Itha over on the forex) use the cloud but I didn't understand the purpose.

How do you incorporate it into taking a position?

Focus

motorway · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

(Don't forget that this line represents the price action from 26 days into the future

No all the lines represent the past price action

By and large, the calculations for ichimoku charts are similar
to moving average techniques but use the historical highs and
lows rather than a series of closing prices.

They are then displaced forward and backwards

An ichimoku chart is a trend-following system with an indicator
similar to moving averages. What makes it unique, however,
is found in the strategy to time-shift the trendlines to the
past for the delayed line and to the future for the preceding
lines.

The time spans of nine, 26, and 52 may be changed for the
current markets, as securities are not currently traded on
Saturday.

Note the key time spans of nine, 26, and 52 days in his
formulas. The time span of 26 days would correspond to the
number of business days (Saturdays included) in one month
when this charting method was devised and tested. So the time
horizons of nine, 26, and 52 days represent a week and half; a
month; and two months, respectively.

Some other values of these time spans may be more predictive
when the chart is used in today’s markets.

Ichimoku Charts by Ken Muranaka

Displaced Moving Averages.

dyor
motorway

josjes · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

$20shoes said:
Cloud charts are messy looking but each line has its place. The Japanese have been using Cloud charts since the 1960s. The process took 20 years to perfect starting in the 1940s; it is still commonly used in Japanese markets today. The cloud charts also use wave analysis btw. At a basic level, the study looks for stalling points within a larger move 9, 18 and 26 days ahead. They combine this with the thickness of the cloud plotted 26 days ahead of today's price action to see if the cloud and wave will give an idea of when the market is likely to change trend. Ichimoku day counts are plotted from intermediate his/lows and look for clusters similar to Fibo. However, the study uses a Timespan principle of 9, 18, 26, 33, 42, 65, 76, 129, 172 and 257

Regarding the Chikou span, take a look at my original chart once more. See how the Chikou crosses through the candles on or about the 5th Oct 2007. Now from that point on, trace the line with your eye and tell me what happens each time it hits a candle cluster? (Don't forget that this line represents the price action from 26 days into the future.)...I can count four times where the Chikou has faithfully respected the candles as resistance; and very obviously so. So potentially, it is more than just another line; if it works well on a stock/index (its not always so obvious), it might help us determine how bullish or bearish our posture.

some ichimoku cycles as applied to XAO in pic below (we take the bars) -

Thanks $20shoes for taking the time to post the chart. Must say this concept is something new and looks quite amazing after I take time to understand your explaination. It is also quite enlightening to see the convergence of EW analysis and your analysis, both conclusion is that the resistance we are expecting is around 5800 give or take 50 points, and it is high probablity that we are not able to go pass that resistance and go sideways for at least a few month more, now whether it will break to new low and hit 4800 that is the $$$ question. Can you post and update your Japanese chart if it foretells that scenario. Thanks again.

motorway · 4 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Here are some ( no exotic sounding names )

Moving Averages

A 9 period and a 26 period EMA

BUT

Both shifted forwards 26 bars

motorway

IFocus · 5 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

motorway said:
Here are some ( no exotic sounding names )

Moving Averages

A 9 period and a 26 period EMA

BUT

Both shifted forwards 26 bars

motorway

Interesting thanks Motorway, I remember looking at displaced MA's some time ago.........went back to price action / VSA

Broadway · 5 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I noticed MQG and BNB took a hit all day today.
And now with poor employment figures from the US and a down looking USD index, I think next week may just start our next ride down for a while.

I personally hope it doesnt last too long.

vishalt · 5 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Guys,

I have a question?

When will the Aussie market STOP going up? lol

I hope we see 4000 so I can claw in with the cash.

XAO Technical Analysis

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Trying not to become toast.

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Can be found on the bid

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Commonsense isn't that common

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