Re: XAO Analysis
Following on from the analysis in the following posts:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258028&postcount=2843
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258028&postcount=2843
Back then is was assumed Fixed Cycle point red 5 was completed on the 7/2/08. The markets have meandered sideways since then putting in a minor false break low yesterday and as such cycle point red 5 was yesterday. (Unlike the US Indiced whereby this came when expected)
There was slight error in the spacing between the yellow and green lines on the right hand side of the fixed cycles chart. As such the high(red cycle point 6) expected in approx mid March, should have actually read 20-25th March.
Also because the market is trending down, the low came slightly later compared to when the market was in an uptrend and the highs come slightly earlier. Ofcourse when the market is trending up it's the opposite, the highs come late and the countertrend lows come early.
This is known as left translation and right translation, and must be taken into consideration doing such analsysis. For more info see 1st attachment below(from Walter Bresserts site)
In those last posts I made mention of the target dates, 10/11th March and 21 March. Nothing has changed, and although our approximate cycle point date for red 6 is now 20-25th March I am still banking on 10/11 March being crucial(as countertrends should finish early because we are now in a downtrend.) and also because the 11th March has cropped up everywhere I have looked in individual stocks.
However still have 21st March as an alternate just in case it decides to go for another run.
The EW chart in the second attachement is the XJO 8Hr chart. It is a zoomed up chart of the earlier analysis I made. In my opinion blue wave b finished yesterday and the market is about to have upward breakout. Three waves always unfould against the one larger trend. We have had an pink abc up from the 22/1/08 low which I have labelled blue wave a. A zigzag down pink abc with intervening pink wave b contracting triangle, these(contracting triangles) precede the last move in a sequence(pink wave c finishing yesterday) and the move down is usually a thrust usually the same height of the widest point of the triangle. I beleive that completed in the selloff yesterday.That then completes major blue wave b.
So where to now? In the initial analysis I mentioned a target of 6244pts. That was a probable choice based on a perfect squaring of both price and time (0.618 in price and in time from the high). In the current chart if we take the height of major blue wave a and add it onto the low we had yesterday(bluw wave b), we get a target of approx 6244 pts which is another confluence.
To answer chops question from the "Elliott Wave Analsysis Thread" of is the move down from the peak impuslsive(ie are we now in a wave 4?) ? I don't beleive this to be the case(but ofcourse admit that I can be wrong), however will stick with the current count above as the top count for now
Cheers