Re: XAO Analysis
Most people think the same as you Chops.Usually the crowd are wrong so could be time for a quick hard bounce.
Yes some people will get burnt and yes, maybe even ruined but to be honest it is all about protecting capital and with the strong performance over the past few years people should be able to get out without losing too much.
We can still trade but must limit losses with stops or be prepared to "invest" with a longer time frame in mind.There is no doubt that we will be higher than we are now in a few years at most.
I really don't think insults like that are necessary. I'd be mortified, fearing for my life to be honest, if everyone thought like me. Wouldn't be enough chemists in Australia for everyone.
All that has been necessary of late, is to be just in front of the herd. In fact, I remember messaging ithaeekret about feeling the US markets were delaying the inevitable. The next night, started this run. I called this breakdown partly anyway, alongside Willow's charts.
Contrarians have been smashed. They have been buying US financials for months. There is way too much power in the herd at the moment to fight it.
The futures are telling a tale. If there is a capitulation on open, and if it looks like coming back, I will close my shorts, hang on to my longs. Opposite for the opposite etc. So was I just a part of the herd... or were they following my tracks? You tell me!
I worry because we have a situation where short term traders, swing traders and dip buyers (not to mention all the buy and holders piping up on this page) may all be stuck in long positions, and looking to close them all at once. We may witness a long squeeze on a magnitude we have not seen before here in a long time.
And you full well know there is no way of controlling risk, or protecting capital in these potential black swan events. So that's why I worry. I imagine things gapping stops en masse is not pleasant to witness. But we know most people here don't use stops, full stop. Which is even more frightening.
I think it's rich someone espousing risk management, who holds INL.
The next level is the August intraday low. Futures are holding that at the moment by the looks. I'm not sure how valid that support is though. Would like to see another gap down and rally tomorrow. Friday's obviously wasn't it... Really just need SOME evidence of a bottom. I have a long term negative bias. But I see this level of support smashing as not helpful or healthy IMO.