XAO Technical Analysis

kennas said:

Well, we'll see on Monday mfp. You putting a dollar on a 170 point loss? I think that's what you're saying?

I think we may touch around 5650 (-150) and bounce. The cat will be unconscious and maybe climb to around between 6000-6200 in the coming weeks until it settles into a stuper for the following 12 months ish.

On the other hand, the market will do anything it damn well likes!!

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mfp said:

No i never said 170 point loss, that's pushing it, and no i'm not putting a dollar on anything! Lost enough of those already. But it is interesting you think -150 is a possibility for Monday and i'm talking complete nonsense for suggesting -100.

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Nyden said:

Yes, but as I stated before MFP; that is far too logical. You are placing intellect on the market itself, as if it is an entity that needs to now 'make up' for losses...

(Once again, to repeat myself; this is nonsensical logic. By that argument, we're due in for some gains from the rallies we missed over the last 11 days!)

It does not work that way, selling is not some kind of exact science, where suddenly people sell because they should have on Friday. They aren't going to suddenly stop selling because we've now equalized with the Dow, either. They sell from their own interpretations of news, & their own fears of what the dow will do next.

As stated; these buyers / sellers, do not need to worry about what the Dow will do Monday night, because it's closed. This means there will be a lot less fear in the markets; & we may see some fundamental buying, or technical buying based on some expected rally : - especially on the resources front.

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mfp said:

I agree with you Nyden, it is definitely not an exact science. Therefore, are you also saying that our market could actually fall "harder" than the US market? Or does the fact it is not an exact science only work in our favour? For example, rather than mention the rallies we missed over the last 11 days, what about the rallies we've had over the last 5 years that the US hasn't? Don't forget the XAO has piled on about 154% (about 2700 to 6850) from its recent bear market low while the DOW only rose about 102% (about 7000 to 14160).

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mfp said:

Or does the fact it is not an exact science only work in our favour?

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Nyden said:

Furthermore, unless you're short in the market MFP, it isn't very nice to wish for people to continue to lose more money. : (Little sarcasm there) Perhaps it's just part of the 'lost' communication of the internet, but you're coming off sounding a little arrogant. You were fortunate enough to pick a good time to sell, & you now seem convinced that since you're out, the markets must now fall to all time lows?

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mfp said:

If you were out of the market would you wish for it to continue to fall or reverse and go up? All time lows!! Now that would be nice.

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mfp said:

No i never said 170 point loss, that's pushing it,

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tech/a said:

Thursdays low wont be taken out Monday.
Great opportunity day Monday.

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kennas said:

However, the bears are, overall, in control right now. Damn you Wayne!!!

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wayneL said:

Yeah but we're doing all the bloody work at the moment, get off your @ss you bulls, we need a break!

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kennas said:

Sorry if I left out anything, but until Chindia starts to subside, I think the Aussie economy will be long term up.

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WASHINGTON - THE size of China's economy is overestimated by some 40 per cent based on the most current measures, but it is still the world's second-largest, the World Bank said yesterday.

China still ranks as the world's second-largest economy with more than 9 per cent of world production, but that was lower compared with 14 per cent under the old methodology.

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kennas said:

OK.

Short term interest rate cuts to calm and provide.
Institutions ordered to halt rate rises.
Policies to change ARM and fix easy lending principles.
Failures of morgage lending arms and liquidity distributed to continue solvency.
Institutions with failing business units linked to easy credit/sub prime sack CEOs, change policies, and grown brains.
US citizens stop buying the latest V8 pick up, every year, and start using public transport.
China continues to grow at 10% pa for the next 15+ years and overtakes the US as the world's greatest economy around 2030 ish.
India follows China very closely and they become the world's economic and military super powers by the year 2040.
Australia provides India and China with the bulk of their resources over the next 20 years, supporting our economy, so that any short-mid term perceived economic fallout from the US fails to effect economic growth in Australia out to 2040 ish.
High probability of a world war concentrated in the Middle East/W Asia with 'superpowers' staking claims on energy. Depending on time frame, the US may fail to a Russian/Chinese/? coalitian - who does Australia side with? - cultural ties will probably rule
Around 2050 ish, BRIC slows down and Australia's resources become less important due to world growth and alternatives to building and construction.
Australia is in deap doo doo....

Sorry if I left out anything, but until Chindia starts to subside, I think the Aussie economy will be long term up.

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wayneL said:

Holy Crap! Whose side are you on?

The first 5 or 6 points would guarantee world economy megadoom!

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GreatPig said:

Another thing to consider. After the last two sharp down runs the turning point was signalled by a red bar with a long tail, as we had on Friday.

In both cases it didn't jump up the very next day, but did start to rally after 2 or 3 (trading) days. Of course the second one didn't last long, but was a small opportunity.

GP

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trembling Hand said:

One of the things that continues to amaze me is that when we reach these extreme oversold levels way to many people/novices (that's just a guess) look to the US for direction. But these reversals start in Asia not the US.

21st of Nov 05 we stopped going down and rallied the US a week later

14th of June 06 we stopped going down and rallied the US the same night.

16th of August we made a low. the US did the same that night.

People still look to the US for direction without the evidence that the US is what you should be looking at.

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mfp said:

I'm completely out of the market and loving watching this slaughter unfold, so for me this is not only positive thinking, but I would say realistic thinking.

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