XAO Technical Analysis

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wouldn't be surprised by a bit of a bounce in the afternoon. (Some rate cutting rumours from the US, plus the generally oversold market. I'm tempted myself to use some of my cash to buy some 'bargains', but then again today's bargain could be tomorrow's disaster - catching falling knives and all that. )

I decided to take the plunge & make a couple of purchases, so far sitting on small losses. Starting to think it was a mistake! Although, even cash isn't "king", as interest rates don't even keep up with inflation!


The fact that I've bought, means we'll go down tomorrow :

Is this a record though? Surely we're close to it! 10 days of straight losses, just amazing. Then again, no one complained when we had 10 days of straight gains.

I think for sentiments sake we need at least one green day, just to lift the mood.

& dhukka, wouldn't it be exciting then if tomorrow we broke the record!

 

[zhang66777]

Re: XAO Analysis

It wasn't clear from your post that you meant 1 or 2 days breath. To me, that is not stopping for breath. But if you want to be technical, then no I don't think in the chart I posted there are any strict falls of 10 days.

It's pretty much irrelevant though. The markets are going down and it will bottom when it bottoms. As has been said many times by many people, there will be sucker rallies on the way down.

thanks a lot, i am just learning how to find the suitable point to short, i am not sure the market will keep going down without any rally or it will have one sucker rally on the way down, i guess you answered my question, thanks a lot

 

[zhang66777]

Re: XAO Analysis

In the last 24 years I could only find one instance of the XAO falling 10 days straight,

9/13/1990 1494.9 -1.2%
9/14/1990 1480.1 -1.0%
9/17/1990 1477.4 -0.2%
9/18/1990 1472.3 -0.3%
9/19/1990 1451.7 -1.4%
9/20/1990 1446.8 -0.3%
9/21/1990 1428 -1.3%
9/24/1990 1412.5 -1.1%
9/25/1990 1393.8 -1.3%
9/26/1990 1385.7 -0.6%

thank you so much to dig so deep for me, really appreciate

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just some more pointless statistics;

This is one of the worst runs I could find. XAO fell 17 out of 19 sessions in late 1984.

11/19/1984 775.1 -0.9%
11/20/1984 771.2 -0.5%
11/21/1984 774.3 0.4%
11/22/1984 772.7 -0.2%
11/23/1984 770.1 -0.3%
11/26/1984 765.6 -0.6%
11/27/1984 752.5 -1.7%
11/28/1984 751.2 -0.2%
11/29/1984 745.3 -0.8%
11/30/1984 749 0.5%
12/3/1984 740.1 -1.2%
12/4/1984 737.7 -0.3%
12/5/1984 737.6 0.0%
12/6/1984 727.2 -1.4%
12/7/1984 726.1 -0.2%
12/10/1984 724.2 -0.3%
12/11/1984 724 0.0%
12/12/1984 721.2 -0.4%
12/13/1984 716.4 -0.7%

 

[zhang66777]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just some more pointless statistics;

This is one of the worst runs I could find. XAO fell 17 out of 19 sessions in late 1984.

11/19/1984 775.1 -0.9%
11/20/1984 771.2 -0.5%
11/21/1984 774.3 0.4%
11/22/1984 772.7 -0.2%
11/23/1984 770.1 -0.3%
11/26/1984 765.6 -0.6%
11/27/1984 752.5 -1.7%
11/28/1984 751.2 -0.2%
11/29/1984 745.3 -0.8%
11/30/1984 749 0.5%
12/3/1984 740.1 -1.2%
12/4/1984 737.7 -0.3%
12/5/1984 737.6 0.0%
12/6/1984 727.2 -1.4%
12/7/1984 726.1 -0.2%
12/10/1984 724.2 -0.3%
12/11/1984 724 0.0%
12/12/1984 721.2 -0.4%
12/13/1984 716.4 -0.7%

would you mind to tell me where you found this kind of info, by the way, you think that is pointless, then would you mind to tell me the market direction in your opinion, it will fall straight to 5500 or this week some time it will become green for one or two days then fall again or before 5500, it will stop falling somewhere

i am just totally lost, welcome any opinion, thanks

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

would you mind to tell me the market direction in your opinion, it will fall straight to 5500 or this week some time it will become green for one or two days then fall again or before 5500, it will stop falling somewhere

i am just totally lost, welcome any opinion, thanks

If we knew this with any certainty, we would all be gazillionaires.

I think you are right with what you say above. 100% certainly a possibility.

 

[Real1ty]

Re: XAO Analysis

would you mind to tell me where you found this kind of info, by the way, you think that is pointless, then would you mind to tell me the market direction in your opinion, it will fall straight to 5500 or this week some time it will become green for one or two days then fall again or before 5500, it will stop falling somewhere

i am just totally lost, welcome any opinion, thanks

zhang.

By the sounds of things you are an experienced investor/trader so the best thing for you to do is make up your mind before you do anything.

You said, you are lost, that's ok.
Then what you need to do is work out, with as much confidence as you can, where you think the market is going to go in the short term and long term

You won't lose any physical money by not buying, only what you MIGHT have made.
Nobody on here can tell you where or when the bottom of the market is but most can tell you which direction they think the market is heading.

That's a starting point for you, where do you think the market is heading, down, up or sideways?

Don't get too technical and try and pick bottoms and bounces etc, work out the actual trend or direction you believe it is going to take first.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

would you mind to tell me where you found this kind of info, by the way, you think that is pointless, then would you mind to tell me the market direction in your opinion, it will fall straight to 5500 or this week some time it will become green for one or two days then fall again or before 5500, it will stop falling somewhere

i am just totally lost, welcome any opinion, thanks

You can get this info by downloading historical prices from Yahoo Finance. Only goes back to 1984 for the XAO but much further for US indices. I like looking at statistics like these but I think they are pointless to a certain degree in that they are of little use in predicting the future.

Where do I think the market is going? I think kennas answered that as well as anyone could. I have no idea and have little interest in picking bottoms. About as specific as I can be is to say that I think it will go down further from here. That doesn't mean it won't bounce. In fact I fully expect we will get some short sharp clearing rallies but they will ultimately fail and the market will continue lower.

 

[zhang66777]

Re: XAO Analysis

zhang.

By the sounds of things you are an experienced investor/trader so the best thing for you to do is make up your mind before you do anything.

You said, you are lost, that's ok.
Then what you need to do is work out, with as much confidence as you can, where you think the market is going to go in the short term and long term

You won't lose any physical money by not buying, only what you MIGHT have made.
Nobody on here can tell you where or when the bottom of the market is but most can tell you which direction they think the market is heading.

That's a starting point for you, where do you think the market is heading, down, up or sideways?

Don't get too technical and try and pick bottoms and bounces etc, work out the actual trend or direction you believe it is going to take first.

thanks a lot, make my mind much more clear.

 

[zhang66777]

Re: XAO Analysis

You can get this info by downloading historical prices from Yahoo Finance. Only goes back to 1984 for the XAO but much further for US indices. I like looking at statistics like these but I think they are pointless to a certain degree in that they are of little use in predicting the future.

Where do I think the market is going? I think kennas answered that as well as anyone could. I have no idea and have little interest in picking bottoms. About as specific as I can be is to say that I think it will go down further from here. That doesn't mean it won't bounce. In fact I fully expect we will get some short sharp clearing rallies but they will ultimately fail and the market will continue lower.

totally agree, thanks

 

[mfp]

Re: XAO Analysis

im so glad i sold everything yesterday

Me too, sold off the last 30% of my holdings yesterday. I'm loving this today, don't want to offend anyone but i really do hope the market heads towards 5000 and below now as i suspect it will.

 

[GreatPig]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just took a quick look back along the XAO to the '87 crash, and since then, the biggest peak to trough drop I can see (from visual inspection only) before a new significant upward period was from mid '89 to the start of '91, when it fell from about 1782 down to about 1204. That's a 32.4% drop.

The next biggest looks to me to be the period between Mar 2002 and Mar 2003, where it dropped from about 3440 down to about 2666. That's a 22.5% drop.

From the most-recent high (based on the close value) at around 6854, a 22.5% drop would take it to about 5312, and a 32.4% drop to about 4633. 5800 is a drop of 15.4%. 5312 is back to about the May 2006 peak, while 4633 is around the Sept 2005 peak.

So there's still room for more...

GP

Edit: the '87 crash itself was about 50%.

 

[kash]

Re: XAO Analysis

That's what we want, all out panic, to make things nice and cheap. Although the last time we looked likely for a big sell-off Helicopter Ben came in with mid meeting cut to the discount rate, any bets on a mid meeting rate cut tonight?

Is the mid meeting cut tonight? They are saying .5%. Could this stop our free fall!!! The aussie market in general is still quite strong

 

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

Is the mid meeting cut tonight? They are saying .5%. Could this stop our free fall!!! The aussie market in general is still quite strong

Kash, it's a rumor. Probably won't substantiate to anything

 

[Synergy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Is the mid meeting cut tonight? They are saying .5%. Could this stop our free fall!!! The aussie market in general is still quite strong

You would have to assume a .5% cut would be just about fully built into the market now? a .75% cut my lift spirits but geez this is getting hard to take.

 

[grace]

Re: XAO Analysis

From the posts I read today, everyone thinks we are in a bear market, would that be correct. Is there much hope of reaching our previous high this year?

 

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

From the posts I read today, everyone thinks we are in a bear market, would that be correct. Is there much hope of reaching our previous high this year?

Hmm, I don't think that's correct. A lot of people still believe this to be a correction.

Well, fortunately we're at the beginning of the year, a whole 12 months left to perhaps recover Or do a lot more damage!

I think the general consensus is that no one really knows where our bottom is. No one knows if the US will be able to lift spirits, there's just a lot of theory out there, but very little fact.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Is the mid meeting cut tonight? They are saying .5%. Could this stop our free fall!!! The aussie market in general is still quite strong

Mid-meeting cut is a rumour, Wall Street supposedly sold off last night partially because they didn't get a mid meeting cut. IMO, being only 2 weeks from a Fed meeting I have my doubts that the Fed will cut before then. Even if they do I expect it to to have the same effect the last 3 rate cuts have had.

That is that there will be a short sharp rally that will fail to break through new highs and we will ultimately end up lower than we are today.

 

[Real1ty]

Re: XAO Analysis

Grace.

Hopefuly this will help

What do you think it would take to turn around the market and give investors some positive sentiment?

Then ask yourself

What are the chances of that happening

Nyden: There is never any fact in the future direction of a sharemarket but there is plenty of facts to be researched and how many of them are positive?

 

[mayk]

Re: XAO Analysis

Market especially in US is acting quite stupid. Intel gave a 51% increase in profit and its stock price was hammered. What else do you except 100%? In normal scenario it would have lifted the stock price a bit higher.. We are living in crazy times.

Because of the current market sentiment I donot think we will see a bull in the first quater of this year, after intel smashing I don't think anyone else will be spared unless like IBM it exceeds -some god forsaken expectation.

I have decided to convert all my holdings into cash ( I am a fool for not doing it earlier ), and wait for this mad-rush-to-bottom to finish and then will start shopping around for the best oranges in the market.

Now nothing matters it seems majority of the banks and financial institutions want a recession so that they can be rescued by US government and Fed. I think major players are manipulating the US stock market and 'engineering' a crash.