XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
- Start date
Nyden
G.E. Money Genie
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
- Posts
- 1,368
- Reactions
- 1
Re: XAO Analysis
Sigh. Can we just have one bloody green day? The US has been having quite a few of them! Whole world was up, but the good ol' ASX has to buck the trend
When did Australian investors become so nervous? What exactly is this based on?
The Australian economy is in fair shape, we have good fundamentals, we're not going into a recession, & as far as I can see - base metals aren't plummeting. There's no logic here!
We sell off on some fearful rumor, & decide not to buy back in when it doesn't pan out.
Our market needs to start focusing on our base metal stocks again, & ignore banks, & property
Sigh. Can we just have one bloody green day? The US has been having quite a few of them! Whole world was up, but the good ol' ASX has to buck the trend
When did Australian investors become so nervous? What exactly is this based on?The Australian economy is in fair shape, we have good fundamentals, we're not going into a recession, & as far as I can see - base metals aren't plummeting. There's no logic here!
We sell off on some fearful rumor, & decide not to buy back in when it doesn't pan out.
Our market needs to start focusing on our base metal stocks again, & ignore banks, & property
- Joined
- 24 March 2006
- Posts
- 570
- Reactions
- 0
Re: XAO Analysis
i am agree with you..
hate looking at my portfolio every day just to see they are all red.
really confuse what will drive our market up
Sigh. Can we just have one bloody green day? The US has been having quite a few of them! Whole world was up, but the good ol' ASX has to buck the trend
The Australian economy is in fair shape, we have good fundamentals, we're not going into a recession, & as far as I can see - base metals aren't plummeting. There's no logic here!
We sell off on some fearful rumor, & decide not to buy back in when it doesn't pan out.
Our market needs to start focusing on our base metal stocks again, & ignore banks, & property
i am agree with you..
hate looking at my portfolio every day just to see they are all red.
really confuse what will drive our market up
Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
Re: XAO Analysis
I guess we are tagging the Nikkei... which after a day off yesterday... is a tad nervous of C et al...
Cheers
..........Kauri
I guess we are tagging the Nikkei... which after a day off yesterday... is a tad nervous of C et al...
Cheers
..........Kauri
Whiskers
It's a small world
- Joined
- 21 August 2007
- Posts
- 3,266
- Reactions
- 1
Re: XAO Analysis
So far so good. The 61.8% retracement might just hold yet. But my few stocks are all in the XMJ and it's holding fine.
All you EW's are a bit quiet!
What signals are you getting?
I'm going with those who claim a turnaround early next week.
There's still good support yet. Until 6018.9 is comprehensively broken, I'm not too worried about roaming bears.
They'll probably have to go hungry fo a bit longer yet.
So far so good. The 61.8% retracement might just hold yet. But my few stocks are all in the XMJ and it's holding fine.
All you EW's are a bit quiet!
What signals are you getting?
Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
Re: XAO Analysis
My post from 03/01/08.. a bit quiet sose I don't see much to add... so far anyways....
Cheers
.........Kauri
My post from 03/01/08.. a bit quiet sose I don't see much to add... so far anyways....
Cheers
.........Kauri
Attachments
Re: XAO Analysis
Try not to check the market everyday if you dont have to.
That may help.
Sigh. Can we just have one bloody green day? The US has been having quite a few of them! Whole world was up, but the good ol' ASX has to buck the trend
The Australian economy is in fair shape, we have good fundamentals, we're not going into a recession, & as far as I can see - base metals aren't plummeting. There's no logic here!
We sell off on some fearful rumor, & decide not to buy back in when it doesn't pan out.
Our market needs to start focusing on our base metal stocks again, & ignore banks, & property
Try not to check the market everyday if you dont have to.
That may help.
- Joined
- 8 November 2007
- Posts
- 314
- Reactions
- 0
Re: XAO Analysis
Seventh day down in a row, metal prices up, gold and oil up, Dow Jones up at least twice in those seven sessions, but we're down. I must admit, I never thought today would be a negative day, especially after the smooth trading day overnight in the US for once, would of thought that would of added to the positive mood for once. But looks like the Centro mess is just adding to the negativeness overall. Disappointing really.
My only question for the experts here is; what's the next support level for the XJO/XAO? We opened firmly at above the 6000 mark, then peaked at 6040, and dipped down to around 5940 with some support there. So if 5940 is broken tomorrow what's the next down leg to?
Seventh day down in a row, metal prices up, gold and oil up, Dow Jones up at least twice in those seven sessions, but we're down. I must admit, I never thought today would be a negative day, especially after the smooth trading day overnight in the US for once, would of thought that would of added to the positive mood for once. But looks like the Centro mess is just adding to the negativeness overall. Disappointing really.
My only question for the experts here is; what's the next support level for the XJO/XAO? We opened firmly at above the 6000 mark, then peaked at 6040, and dipped down to around 5940 with some support there. So if 5940 is broken tomorrow what's the next down leg to?
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
- Joined
- 1 November 2006
- Posts
- 4,636
- Reactions
- 3
Re: XAO Analysis
It did (well rumours anyway). I traded off it. But C was up for the day. But who knows how the US markets will react? They've had a history of reacting incredibly strangely to bad news. Futures are down a bit at the moment.
Nyden and others, the all ords are not dominated by miners, apart from BHP and RIO. Overall, our market is led by retailers and financials. I'm not sure how many times people have to say this...
thanks for that! i thought that news had come out during yesterday's trading day!! I read it on bloombergs before the US market closed this morning at 7?
It did (well rumours anyway). I traded off it. But C was up for the day.
But who knows how the US markets will react? They've had a history of reacting incredibly strangely to bad news. Futures are down a bit at the moment.Nyden and others, the all ords are not dominated by miners, apart from BHP and RIO. Overall, our market is led by retailers and financials. I'm not sure how many times people have to say this...
Nyden
G.E. Money Genie
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
- Posts
- 1,368
- Reactions
- 1
Re: XAO Analysis
Chops, I of course understand this. But are our retailers / financials doing so bad as to warrant 7 days of losses? Last I saw, we had record sales over the Christmas break. Last I heard, our banks aren't going bankrupt.
Essentially, it is my belief that our shopping, & spending habits are doing fine. Do our banks lend to Americans? Not as far as I know. So I guess I just don't understand, as on a fundamental basis things seem to be alright here. But, I guess fundamentals are out the door right now, aren't they Markets are all fear, & panic
I guess it just frustrates me that a few stocks can do so much damage out of stupidity. CNP should have never even hit $1, it should have bombed & remained at 40c. The buy-in on that was pure 100% gambling, & that rubbish belongs on the roulette table, & not in the markets. The downfall on that, coupled with more darn rumors from the US triggered yet more fear, & cost us the green day we would have had.
Chops, I of course understand this. But are our retailers / financials doing so bad as to warrant 7 days of losses? Last I saw, we had record sales over the Christmas break. Last I heard, our banks aren't going bankrupt.
Essentially, it is my belief that our shopping, & spending habits are doing fine. Do our banks lend to Americans? Not as far as I know. So I guess I just don't understand, as on a fundamental basis things seem to be alright here. But, I guess fundamentals are out the door right now, aren't they
Markets are all fear, & panicI guess it just frustrates me that a few stocks can do so much damage out of stupidity. CNP should have never even hit $1, it should have bombed & remained at 40c. The buy-in on that was pure 100% gambling, & that rubbish belongs on the roulette table, & not in the markets. The downfall on that, coupled with more darn rumors from the US triggered yet more fear, & cost us the green day we would have had.
Nyden
G.E. Money Genie
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
- Posts
- 1,368
- Reactions
- 1
Re: XAO Analysis
I know you're right Nizar, & I'm sure you know you're right as well!
Easier said than done though in current market conditions, I'm an investor; but of course I don't want to see my capital halved.
What's even more difficult is trying to keep a level head, & not becoming irrational with the rest of the mob.
I guess you become addicted to watching the markets like a hawk, it's like a car-crash; very difficult to look away!
I know you're right Nizar, & I'm sure you know you're right as well!
Easier said than done though in current market conditions, I'm an investor; but of course I don't want to see my capital halved.
What's even more difficult is trying to keep a level head, & not becoming irrational with the rest of the mob.
I guess you become addicted to watching the markets like a hawk, it's like a car-crash; very difficult to look away!
- Joined
- 6 December 2007
- Posts
- 436
- Reactions
- 0
Re: XAO Analysis
You have to remember that the market is working on what is going to happen in the future, and to a far lesser extent the past.
I think a lot of people have undersold the effect the Banks have had, raising interest rates independent of the RBA.
We have high inflation, banks raising rates, possibly the RBA raising, a possible recession in the US and a probable global slowdown, record oil etc etc.
Maybe the Australian market has positioned itself for the inevitable while the US places their faith in Ben to pull them out of the shizzle?, yeah good luck with that.
Our markets are not all fear and panic, and by the way you are talking you either haven't seen many fear markets or have forgotten.
I think you might need to re evauate your strategy because if you are frustrated now in this current market, you might be pulling your hair out at some stage this year.
Chops, I of course understand this. But are our retailers / financials doing so bad as to warrant 7 days of losses? Last I saw, we had record sales over the Christmas break. Last I heard, our banks aren't going bankrupt.
Essentially, it is my belief that our shopping, & spending habits are doing fine. Do our banks lend to Americans? Not as far as I know. So I guess I just don't understand, as on a fundamental basis things seem to be alright here. But, I guess fundamentals are out the door right now, aren't they
I guess it just frustrates me that a few stocks can do so much damage out of stupidity. CNP should have never even hit $1, it should have bombed & remained at 40c. The buy-in on that was pure 100% gambling, & that rubbish belongs on the roulette table, & not in the markets. The downfall on that, coupled with more darn rumors from the US triggered yet more fear, & cost us the green day we would have had.
You have to remember that the market is working on what is going to happen in the future, and to a far lesser extent the past.
I think a lot of people have undersold the effect the Banks have had, raising interest rates independent of the RBA.
We have high inflation, banks raising rates, possibly the RBA raising, a possible recession in the US and a probable global slowdown, record oil etc etc.
Maybe the Australian market has positioned itself for the inevitable while the US places their faith in Ben to pull them out of the shizzle?, yeah good luck with that.
Our markets are not all fear and panic, and by the way you are talking you either haven't seen many fear markets or have forgotten.
I think you might need to re evauate your strategy because if you are frustrated now in this current market, you might be pulling your hair out at some stage this year.
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
- Joined
- 1 November 2006
- Posts
- 4,636
- Reactions
- 3
Re: XAO Analysis
Credit is an international fundamental, and the basis of it is dictated from the US. These are really really basic things.
If you are going to say things like that, perhaps you should take a look at your position in the market. Our banks have eventually admitted exposure to sub-prime. Some of our councils have been caught up. As far as I'm aware, per capita we are the most in-debted nation in the western world. Spending habits are fine I'm sure.Essentially, it is my belief that our shopping, & spending habits are doing fine. Do our banks lend to Americans? Not as far as I know. So I guess I just don't understand, as on a fundamental basis things seem to be alright here. But, I guess fundamentals are out the door right now, aren't they
Credit is an international fundamental, and the basis of it is dictated from the US. These are really really basic things.
- Joined
- 23 September 2007
- Posts
- 454
- Reactions
- 0
Re: XAO Analysis
From what I understand, Fund Mangers are the real power behind our little aussie index. They have the funds to move the market and whatever they want, they can usually achieve. Of late, I've heard that FM's are lightening their portfolios of exposure to the equity markets. They are selling anything that looks like a rally to get the best exit prices. They just don't care about what the rest of the world is doing. All they know is they must get the cash off the tables and put safely under the bed. The cash is now being put into things like precious metals and fixed term deposits.
When will they come back? when they think the market is stable and has a sense of direction again. It's possible they are waiting for even lower prices before coming back... maybe 5800's or even 5500's will get their attention?
Lets all hope that it never gets that far, but if it does, make sure you have some funds ready to trade cos it will be a wicked ride back to the top again!!
From what I understand, Fund Mangers are the real power behind our little aussie index. They have the funds to move the market and whatever they want, they can usually achieve. Of late, I've heard that FM's are lightening their portfolios of exposure to the equity markets. They are selling anything that looks like a rally to get the best exit prices. They just don't care about what the rest of the world is doing. All they know is they must get the cash off the tables and put safely under the bed. The cash is now being put into things like precious metals and fixed term deposits.
When will they come back? when they think the market is stable and has a sense of direction again. It's possible they are waiting for even lower prices before coming back... maybe 5800's or even 5500's will get their attention?
Lets all hope that it never gets that far, but if it does, make sure you have some funds ready to trade cos it will be a wicked ride back to the top again!!
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,018
- Reactions
- 11,006
Re: XAO Analysis
28 Nov
You picked a 'low' around 20 ish Nov which ended up being a bounce up to what looked to be almost a double top to me with a target of about 6000 ish, and then the current more significant move down started about 10 Dec. Since then it's been down, down, down. Not the significant rally you had anticipated from as early as last October.
Any revised time and price projections?
Apologies if you have already done this in the thread somewhere. Ignore this if you have.
28 Nov
WP, Have you officially revised this view as the time cycles for the 7100 high seems a little off.
You picked a 'low' around 20 ish Nov which ended up being a bounce up to what looked to be almost a double top to me with a target of about 6000 ish, and then the current more significant move down started about 10 Dec. Since then it's been down, down, down. Not the significant rally you had anticipated from as early as last October.
Any revised time and price projections?
Apologies if you have already done this in the thread somewhere. Ignore this if you have.
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
- Joined
- 1 November 2006
- Posts
- 4,636
- Reactions
- 3
Re: XAO Analysis
From memory Kennas, he put up some stuff in the EW thread. The last high he projected then, to me, seemed to line up with a retest and fail of resistance (December lows) on the S&P 500.
From memory Kennas, he put up some stuff in the EW thread. The last high he projected then, to me, seemed to line up with a retest and fail of resistance (December lows) on the S&P 500.
Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
Re: XAO Analysis
I think I must have struck it lucky... for once.. by a couple of days anyways.. (posted pre new year) :luigi:
I think I must have struck it lucky... for once.. by a couple of days anyways.. (posted pre new year) :luigi:
Re: The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread
No idea where she is headed.. could have completed a WC and be resuming an uptrend, just as easily could be in a W1-W2 of a deeper WC.. also my very simple count be complete rubbish..
The two time routines point to a period around the middle of January being significant.. possibly.. but as most of the indicated time points are around a week or so apart I guess that if I give them a couple of days leeway either side I can claim ... well...something???
Cheers and a happy and prosperous year to all
.......Kauri
Attachments
- Joined
- 3 March 2007
- Posts
- 574
- Reactions
- 1
Re: XAO Analysis
Going to be ripped apart today, futures down nearly 100.
The Aussie market hasn't had one decent rally since this correction (or bear market) started.
Going to be ripped apart today, futures down nearly 100.
The Aussie market hasn't had one decent rally since this correction (or bear market) started.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
- Joined
- 9 July 2004
- Posts
- 25,581
- Reactions
- 12,707
Re: XAO Analysis
The US went further into the tank after hours too. A shocking open in store for the XAO for sure.
Dow -336 & SP500 -44 at time of writing.
The US went further into the tank after hours too. A shocking open in store for the XAO for sure.
Dow -336 & SP500 -44 at time of writing.