- Joined
- 27 December 2007
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Re: XAO Analysis
That may be true but when you buy a share you are not buying a product. You are buying it to sell again (hopefully for a profit) like everyone else. There's no intrinsic value. Shares prices move based on human ideas about certain things and that's all Therefore consumer confidence is extremely important and the recent sell offs say it all as far as I am concerned. That is also a fundamental!
I have always bought stocks for the long term based on fundamentals but these are the ones i
have lost money in by getting out of the market at this point. It may rebound but it may not but I KNOW I won't lose anymore money. That's more important to me than losing the opportunity to make more money in a market that is just too volatile and dependent on many hidden factors and maybe having to wait three to four years for it get back to previous levels.
I am not a gambler. I only let my shares devalue to the point where I could use the loss as a CGT offset. It began to surpass that point. If there is a real drop in the share market then I want to have some money left to pick up the bargains and not have to wait until prices go up again. I have done enough wishful thinking in the last few months.
I think its important to look at statistics but examine the facts. Look at what is happening with credit. Its so obvious what will happen. When people run out of money ( and that includes big intitutions) they have to start selling things (shares included) and because they are desperate they will take what they can get. Those who have cash are the winners.
Where's all the cash gone that has been liquidated from the sale of shares recently? Somewhere else and I can't see it coming back anytime soon. I for one won't be putting my cash back in the market until this US sub-prime stuff has bottomed out and I am sure I am not alone. I don't believe I am being pessemistic just a realist.
In today's fin review p16. there is an article regarding Goldman Sachs the worlds largest securities firm, describing how they bet on the decline of the sub-prime mortgage market for most of last year and hedged against it. I believe that the entire truth has yet to be revealed and those who know it already have already positioned themselves to deal with it.
my thoughts only and after all only my opinion
this is an interesting article
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theory
That may be true but when you buy a share you are not buying a product. You are buying it to sell again (hopefully for a profit) like everyone else. There's no intrinsic value. Shares prices move based on human ideas about certain things and that's all Therefore consumer confidence is extremely important and the recent sell offs say it all as far as I am concerned. That is also a fundamental!
I have always bought stocks for the long term based on fundamentals but these are the ones i
have lost money in by getting out of the market at this point. It may rebound but it may not but I KNOW I won't lose anymore money. That's more important to me than losing the opportunity to make more money in a market that is just too volatile and dependent on many hidden factors and maybe having to wait three to four years for it get back to previous levels.
I am not a gambler. I only let my shares devalue to the point where I could use the loss as a CGT offset. It began to surpass that point. If there is a real drop in the share market then I want to have some money left to pick up the bargains and not have to wait until prices go up again. I have done enough wishful thinking in the last few months.
I think its important to look at statistics but examine the facts. Look at what is happening with credit. Its so obvious what will happen. When people run out of money ( and that includes big intitutions) they have to start selling things (shares included) and because they are desperate they will take what they can get. Those who have cash are the winners.
Where's all the cash gone that has been liquidated from the sale of shares recently? Somewhere else and I can't see it coming back anytime soon. I for one won't be putting my cash back in the market until this US sub-prime stuff has bottomed out and I am sure I am not alone. I don't believe I am being pessemistic just a realist.
In today's fin review p16. there is an article regarding Goldman Sachs the worlds largest securities firm, describing how they bet on the decline of the sub-prime mortgage market for most of last year and hedged against it. I believe that the entire truth has yet to be revealed and those who know it already have already positioned themselves to deal with it.
my thoughts only and after all only my opinion
this is an interesting article
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theory
