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XAO Banter Thread

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Indications point to a rally end in the next week. The big question is are we half way through a correction or is the low in. Can't help thinking the worst medium term with terrorism/conflict in the conscious and bull run exhaustion.
 
Wysiwyg said:
Indications point to a rally end in the next week. The big question is are we half way through a correction or is the low in. Can't help thinking the worst medium term with terrorism/conflict in the conscious and bull run exhaustion.
Click to expand...

Question is if you were long from the recent bottom would you close your long now ?
The best entry is always on a retest, last July was a classic. (made a motza on BHP). So with any luck we will have one of those soon in line with xmas rally (if that is to be), then things will be much more clear.
With all this macro - economic news some times the market completely ignores it.
 
I wonder if we are going to see this downward trend breaking thorough the most recent low of 5121 If so, will we be going into 2015 below the 5000 level?

​
 
piggybank said:
If so, will we be going into 2015 below the 5000 level?
Click to expand...

There is an ascending long term trendline that goes back from 1974 and the market needs to colapse next few weeks -only in this way it could reach this trendline below 5000 which currently sits at 4880 area. A slow decline won't make it below 5000.
Market touched that line a numerous times in the past and each time it provided a good support for an uptrend to stay intact. I personally think that it won't get even close to it and the rally to new highs will resume soon.


 
rimtas said:
There is an ascending long term trendline that goes back from 1974 and the market needs to colapse next few weeks -only in this way it could reach this trendline below 5000 which currently sits at 4880 area.
Click to expand...
Interestingly, trend lines are only trend lines until the next trend line marker is formed. Still, at least a reference point for chart analysis. This is a monthly showing the trend lines, low to low, before and after GFC. Start points with trend lines, as with all T/A, are subjective. Scaled logarithmic.


 
Hi,

Interesting charts above so thanks to the members for sharing them and your thoughts with use. I don't see it going down as far as 4000 points and if I am wrong (as I often am) this wouldn't bode well for the country as a whole.

However, I have noticed that the past couple of days of action has seen it break through the 38.2 Fib followed by today's break thorough and close below the 50% Fib which is a bit of a worry.

​
 
Wysiwyg said:
Start points with trend lines, as with all T/A, are subjective.
Click to expand...

One must use a proper basis for analysis, then subjectivity will be gone...
In most cases each Impulsive wave stays within the channel.
I must stress that I do not draw the lines, market does. I just connect the points which market thinks are important, and miraculasly you have a line, right?

How about those charts, what do they tell you? Probably that market needs to return to the 1000 mark to touch the main trendline again. But when? Can it go much more upwards before it breaks down? Sure. It can go parabolic on the log scale in the second chart. And only then break.





 
This is a real "banter" comment as my TA skills are more than deficient.

Market volatility seems at a very high level. I'm too mature (aka "old") to be a trader.

Any thoughts on the extent to which the current downtrend is directly linked to the iron ore price and the implications of that for our economy?
 
I doubt that iron ore decline has any implications on economy.
New lows in iron ore, but near new highs in the markets. And markets leads the economy, so iron ore is closer to the bottom than to the top. if there was a direct connection between ore and economy, AUS would be in depression by now.
 

I appreciate your expertise and the comments above Rimtas. I wonder then to what extent sentiment is the key driver and the connection of this to economic realities?

I read your posts with interest and you may have provided this info before, or may choose not to do so: Wondering if you are a full-time professional analyst / trader or whether this is a part-time absorbing interest / involvement?

You certainly are prepared to take the time to make regular and significant posts to ASF - thank you.

I remember you also said that you don't like losses... (who does?) and I imagine you are more skilled at not experiencing this than most posters on ASF...

But is it fair to assume you have experienced losses occasionally? Only asking as a I assume becoming the perfect investor an unachievable aspiration for mere mortals like me.

If "put on the spot" where do you see the XAO at the end of the year?

Please continue with your fascinating posts.
 
rimtas said:
....How about those charts, what do they tell you? .........


View attachment 60355


View attachment 60356
Click to expand...

Actually, while your horizontal time period increments in both charts are uniform (in the time between each other), the value of the increments in between the vertical reference values are not uniform. Accordingly the configuration of the charts (giving the appearance of lines moving across the page at an angle of approx 45 degrees) is false.

If the vertical value increments in both charts were uniform in value, the line angles in both charts would appear to be much steeper and probably better show the significant swings during the history of bull and bear markets.

Is it possible to show both charts again with uniform increments on the vertical axis?
 
log scale is a must if you think about performance as %
do you care that in 1960 a shared increased by 2 $ (a sizable amount then) or more that it increased by 30%?
absolute values are meaningless after inflation in long time scale so the use of logs...and I assume the reason rimtas uses them?
 
Noticed our futures market has bounced off a low. Up more than 1% at the moment in line with a significant rise in the U.S. Tough to call a short term bottom on our market but a decent bounce up anyway.
U.S. blow off top?
 
Re: XAO Technical Analysis

Porper said:
Why 4800? What's the analysis behind that call?
Click to expand...


* Australian economy is cactus
* Most ASX companies are in big debt
* US is shaky
* China is shaky
* Europe is cactus

Biggest export for australia has died in the ****......nothing good happening with economy jobless rate gets higher by the month, budget blow out and collapse of oil.

once oil collapses share market usually follows next.

But what would i know...
 
Perhaps Porper was wondering how you arrived at 4800, is it a technical level or you just pulled it out of thin air?

Seems pretty accurate for all the macro elements you pointed out...
 
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