XAO Banter Thread

Trembling Hand · 14 February 2014

malagets said:
We are headed for a lower low and we will test the GFC low
again in the years ahead. Up move of the last 5 years has .been a correction of the larger trend which is down.
Same thing happened in the Dow post the crash of 29, the Nasdaq crash of 2000, the Nikkei 225 crash of 1990, and the Shanghai Composite Index now.

Cheersl

Its like every time someone says we are going down to the GFC lows the market explodes higher. Face it bears your wet dream has come and gone and all you guys are left with is Shouldas, couldas and of course wet sheets...

clayton4115 · 14 February 2014

No reason to buy the dip

http://www.morningstar.com.au/technicalanalysis.mvc/article/no-reason-to-buy-the-dip/6352/1

qldfrog · 14 February 2014

Hi Th,
we will see again in 3 months (june) if your gains since october 13 are so good, my cash returns a pitiful 4% at the banks, but very happy to have disengage late last year.
I might be wrong but I keep sleeping.
and I do not risk much.
My short options might cost me a bit but I can write them off with no issue.
If I win, I will be really well off, and I still put some money on things like telstra, wpl while protecting them with put option,
There is no way I would go long any further in the current circumstances

Porper · 14 February 2014

qldfrog said:
Hi Th,
we will see again in 3 months (june) if your gains since october 13 are so good, my cash returns a pitiful 4% at the banks, but very happy to have disengage late last year.

There are many traders and investors that agree with you qldfrog and think a massive downturn is imminent. But most have been Bearish for years and just wont accept that this market can keep tracking higher. It can...and it is. If the doom and gloom brigade are correct then having money in any bank will be extremely risky anyway so not too much protection there.

The old argument from the bears suggesting Gold can only go up during a stock market panic simply doesn't have any substance. Gold could very well follow the market higher from here as it has in the past.

clayton4115 · 14 February 2014

i think i have to agree with qldfrog, i too am quite bearish and the US market in particular is ripe for a massive correction. I have alot of short positions open at the moment, i am taking a bit of a hit but i have to ride it out i suppose.

Trembling Hand · 15 February 2014

qldfrog said:
Hi Th,
we will see again in 3 months (june) if your gains since october 13 are so good,

They are not my gains, they are simply the way the market has been acting. Every next event has supposedly been the bears next big event where we will all we see sanity return to the world. I got dumped on saying that the tapper would cause a rally. How did that turn out for the bears again?

I guess you guys still have the hope of a lower high here. :robot2:

qldfrog · 15 February 2014

Hi TH,
I just took a bit of an exception to the "Face it bears your wet dream has come and gone an.."
we both have been here for a while, I am a bear but not always have.
I believe being bear now especially in Australia is a perfectly sane attitude, even after this crazy( for me )week, we are still 200pts below the XAO highs of late last year, I have seen no results justifying the current valuations, real unemployment is scary and when I work in the city: offices are empty while suburban industrial areas are full of for sales/for lease.30% as a count of hand
I am in Brisbane and that is maybe why I have such a doom/gloom view, it could be the situation is different in Melbourne /sydney;
I do know in Brisbane at least, this is the hardest it has been for a long while worse than during the GFC in my opinion...
so my feelings..
I wish for you you are right but I am not alone to be gloomy :while shares are going up, gold and bonds are going up as well.
In my teaching book, it can /should not be so, so something will have to give...
No personal attack intented BTW
Cheers

clayton4115 · 15 February 2014

gold and silver going up, maybe a precursor of things to come?

Porper · 16 February 2014

clayton4115 said:
gold and silver going up, maybe a precursor of things to come?

Not sure why people think Gold rallying means equity markets going down heavily. Maybe this chart will help. Draw your own conclusions.

Porper · 16 February 2014

Here is something for the Bears to keep their hopes up...courtesy of Marketwatch

Garpal Gumnut · 16 February 2014

Porper said:
Here is something for the Bears to keep their hopes up...courtesy of Marketwatch

Thanks Porper.

A good post, so good that I did a google search on "Absurd Charts" and the full article from which you took your graph was top.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/02/that-viral-chart-predicting-another-1929-stock-market-crash-its-absurd/283762/

Exhibit A: The chart above that's been making the rounds again. It shows how the stock market today looks””dun, dun, dun””just like it did in 1929. Hurry up and invest with the geniuses who first identified this spooky pattern before it's too late!

Except don't. Please don't. Double y-axes have their time and place, but too often they're the first, last, and only refuge of charlatans and cranks. That's because you can use them to make almost anything look like a pattern.

Suppose, for example, that you had some stock prices from a historic boom and bust. And then suppose that you had some other stock prices from a much, much smaller boom. Well, you can make them look identical if you use devious enough y-axes. All you need is a small range for the small boom, and a big range for the big boom””and voilÃ , you have a "pattern."

Here's what the chart would look like if you weren't trying to scare the bejeesus out of people. First, you index the Dow to 100 starting in February 1928, and see how much it changed in percentage terms between then and December 1929. Then, you index the Dow to 100 starting in July 2012, and see how much it changed in percentage terms between then and now. And finally, you compare those two percentage changes on a single y-axis.

Suddenly our "scary parallel" is neither scary nor a parallel. It's just two lines that look nothing alike. Eerie?

Enclosed is a chart corrected for those pointy headed things with which statisticians bore beautiful women.

gg

Valued · 16 February 2014

I indicated I was short term bearish and I was correct. Since then the market has bounced back. All indications seem to be that the market is bullish. Now it may be that the S&P 500 fails to make its new high or does make it but ends up coming down quickly and this in turn effects the XAO but I do not think it's the most likely scenario. The most likely scenario I think is that the S&P 500 makes its new high and continues to rise and the XAO/XJO follow.

This seems silly. It seems like I have said "the market could go up or down, but up is more likely" which is pretty much what anyone says at any one time. However, the important part is that the turning point is very near. We get to see how the market reacts next week. We should either see it find resistance or go through to make a new high very soon. You would expect this to happen early next week. We get to see how the market acts and reacts when it does make the new high (we are looking for it to find support at old resistance). Since it's so near, I am going to stay out of the market until I see what it does.

There are a few ways the market can go at this point. I expect we will see very bullish or very bearish with bullish more likely. If we see a small trading range I would say that's going to be weakness but it doesn't mean the market is ready to move down right away.

Of course, do your own research as my opinions are my own. I have deliberately omitted technical reasons for my opinions (especially since I could be wrong!).

beachlife · 16 February 2014

Garpal Gumnut said:
Thanks Porper.

A good post, so good that I did a google search on "Absurd Charts" and the full article from which you took your graph was top.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/02/that-viral-chart-predicting-another-1929-stock-market-crash-its-absurd/283762/

Enclosed is a chart corrected for those pointy headed things with which statisticians bore beautiful women.

gg

True for the y axis but the x axis still quite accurately correlates the timing of highs and lows, and the duration of the moves. Long move down on the way soon

nulla nulla · 18 February 2014

the recent highs were getting lower and the recent lows were getting lower also. However for the last week the recent trend has reversed and popped back above the upper downward channel bar.

While the latest Unemployment figures hit 6% this appears to be within or slightly less than was expected. The new car sales figures out this week were also down on the xmas/new year period but there weren't as many sales and the malarkey about Holden and Toyota future production closures (adding to the Ford issues) doesn't help. However the market appears to be taking this in it's stride.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the All Ords move above the recent high of 28 October 2013. Particularly now there is some certainty & confidence coming back into the global markets. Quantative Easing is definitely being scaled back, the European community is settling down and China hasn't collapsed. To me the two year chart suggest the All Ords should continue to track more upward and sideways.

pavilion103 · 18 February 2014

Doesn't look quite as bearish as before.
Interesting that I'm getting a few more setups appearing in Aussie stocks too.

Valued · 18 February 2014

My general outlook now has turned to very bullish The problem with the XAO is that the very big stocks I have been looking at that are leaders in their sectors (stocks like CBA, CPU, IRE, TLS, RHC, PPT etc) don't look ready to make big moves just yet. They may be in the future but they arn't looking at exceptionally bullish to the point of moving right now. The other big banks are not faring as well as CBA overall when you compare them to sector and market performance. They also don't look ready to move right now.

With the US markets very big US stocks look ready to move higher very soon. I suspect the XAO will lag behind them. If it's the start of a large uptrend into new highs for the S&P, the performance should roll over to the medium cap stocks and to overseas markets.

Trembling Hand · 19 February 2014

I would place my on a churn to nowhere. That would actually be the best thing here for the Bulls. Work off a little steam then a cracking breakout.

nulla nulla · 19 February 2014

The price action tomorrow with options settlements will be interesting.

Trembling Hand · 19 February 2014

nulla nulla said:
The price action tomorrow with options settlements will be interesting.

Why is that?

cutz · 19 February 2014

It's just the XJOs expiring tomorrow, nothing interesting ever happens on the day, although it is interesting how the index has rallied to the call open interest over the past week and a bit, coincidental perhaps......

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