XAO Banter Thread

[tech/a]

Should the wave 5s end in the coming week or so what would this signal to you?

Short term weakness---unless we see a blow off top (nothing like it so far) OR an impulse sell off
(Also nothing so far).
That being the case a corrective patter could emerge with a continuation of a larger wave 5 pattern
finally culminating in a final top--where we should see both a blow off and an impulse move down.

 

[robz7777]

Short term weakness---unless we see a blow off top (nothing like it so far) OR an impulse sell off
(Also nothing so far).
That being the case a corrective pattern could emerge with a continuation of a larger wave 5 pattern
finally culminating in a final top--where we should see both a blow off and an impulse move down.

Thanks. If we see the corrective pattern extend the wave 5 to breach the 2011 high would you see this as a significant top? Or would we need to have the impulse move down rather than a slight correction which would more likely signal that the market has further to run?

 

[brty]

When I look at that chart, I cannot help but think the dynamic upward movement of the last nearly 600 points, would fit the criteria of a 3rd wave movement moreso than a 5th wave.

I would also expect that there would be some type of reaction/sideways movement during February. Perhaps there will be a fourth wave starting sometime soon, followed by the 5th wave into March/April. This would then follow a fairly typical type of stockmarket yearly pattern.

If there was a larger correction/sideways movement from April onwards, I would expect a certain event in September to resume the rally towards the end of the year.

Prediction is so much fun, as long as we don't allow it to interfere with actual trading decisions based on existing criteria.


brty

 

[howmanyru]

Well, if the idea of the stock market is a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, then this time is approaching. Mum and dad investors will realise they missed the recent bull run and want to dive in. Then a lot of bad news will mysteriously appear in the media causing mum and dad to panic and sell at a loss. Then, as if by magic, everything is OK again, and there is another bull run. (cynical, i know).

 

[kid hustlr]

Who knows tech you might just get that exhaustion top.

I had to check if it was some kind of expiry day after looking at the price action this morning, I was praying for some tin foil hat theories. no such luck.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Well, if the idea of the stock market is a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, then this time is approaching.

Who said that is how it works?

I think it has more to do with skill and work vs stupidity and laziness than strictly the size of your wealth.

 

[skc]

I sold everything today. Top of channel. I don't think the pullback will be strong, but that's what I'm waiting for.

Are you still waiting for a pull back or have you jumped back in?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Are you still waiting for a pull back or have you jumped back in?

I'm not using my momentum strategy, but I am using my mean reversion strategy, which is shorter term. I should have kept the momentum one going in retrospect!

How about your good self?

 

[CanOz]

I'm not using my momentum strategy, but I am using my mean reversion strategy, which is shorter term. I should have kept the momentum one going in retrospect!

Are you using each system on its own regime...for example the mom system on a bull regime and the MR system on a bear regime?

CanOz

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Are you using each system on its own regime...for example the mom system on a bull regime and the MR system on a bear regime?

CanOz

The momentum one hadn't been making anything for a few weeks even in the strong trending market, so I didn't want to use it until it looked like being useful again. The MR was going ok so I started that again this week. XAO just looked too far gone for me to try getting in on any trends.

 

[CanOz]

The momentum one hadn't been making anything for a few weeks even in the strong trending market, so I didn't want to use it until it looked like being useful again. The MR was going ok so I started that again this week. XAO just looked too far gone for me to try getting in on any trends.

You might want to consider adding something so that you can test your judgement calls. Perhaps an equity switch or something. Otherwise you'll get stuck not following the profitable system eventually. That's the thing with systems, you either follow them to the 'T' or don't use them. If you can't test it thn you can never know for sure if your theory, intuition or whatever works.

CanOz

 

[RazzaDazzla]

You might want to consider adding something so that you can test your judgement calls.

Like an index filter? When the index is above a certain line such as a MA, use your trend system.

 

[CanOz]

Like an index filter? When the index is above a certain line such as a MA, use your trend system.

Yeah, exactly. Bull regime (closing above the 50MA) then a momentum system...bear regime (closing below the 50 MA) then Mean Reversion. My gut feel is that the MR system would be better short than long in a bear regime, but I'm probably wrong.

CanOz

 

[Country Lad]

The momentum one hadn't been making anything for a few weeks even in the strong trending market, ..............

Suggest you have a good look at your system, if it is not showing the momentum present in the market, then your system is broken. Mine have been showing strength since early December.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[skc]

I'm not using my momentum strategy, but I am using my mean reversion strategy, which is shorter term. I should have kept the momentum one going in retrospect!

How about your good self?

Going ok. The short term stuff was up 5.25% in Jan so barely beat the market.

Longer term holds up ~10.3% in Jan so slightly more respectable.

Both marked to market so includes open and closed positions.

Suggest you have a good look at your system, if it is not showing the momentum present in the market, then your system is broken. Mine have been showing strength since early December.

Cheers
Country Lad

Any momentum system that predicts an end point is probably not doing itself a favour. Best just to let a trailing stop take you out. Letting open profit slip is inevitable, but it's better than cutting profit short.

Different for mean-reverse system of course.

 

[tech/a]

Strong Pivot point reversal.



As a consequence (not because the XJO is a leading Indicator!!)
I have a long term SHORT FTSE Trade with a stop at 6346
Sold 3 at 6340.
Holding O/N.

 

[CanOz]

I have a long term SHORT FTSE Trade with a stop at 6346
Sold 3 at 6340.
Holding O/N.

You mean 6246 and 6240

 

[CanOz]

Tech, still can't figure out where you had your stop, unless you got stopped out?

CanOz

 

[tech/a]

No took the trade last night on open
Open profit is over 90 ticks.
Short 6340 3 contracts with the stop
At 6346

 

[CanOz]

No took the trade last night on open
Open profit is over 90 ticks.
Short 6340 3 contracts with the stop
At 6346

Ahh, your not talking about the futures contract (Z 03-13), you must be talking about the CFD? The futures contract opened at 6303 yesterday.

No wonder i couldn't find it on my chart.

CanOz