XAO Banter Thread

[tinhat]

After seven weeks of higher closes for the XAO you would expect some sort of pull-back. Note that the week ending 28 December 2012 was the first time the XAO had not closed down for the week after having crossed above the upper bollinger band during the previous week. The previous occasion was 18 February 2011 right before the Japanese tsunami.

The XAO has moved above the upper bollinger band on the weekly chart during the course of trading during the last four weeks of trading. The last time that happened was the week ending 25 February 2011 which saw the beginning of the Japanese tsunami mini-crash. The previous occasion was the week ending 28 October 2009.

The Shanghai composite is showing signs of taking off on a good bull run at least in the medium term which might lose some momentum over the Chinese new year and then resume.

Me bull at least for the first quarter of this calendar year.

 

[willstor]

I would say analysts interpretations of results as they are announced will dictate direction from here.

 

[CanOz]

The Shanghai composite is showing signs of taking off on a good bull run at least in the medium term which might lose some momentum over the Chinese new year and then resume.

Actually it's in bull market terroritory now....as defined by a 20% increase....

CanOz

 

[Trembling Hand]

I would say analysts interpretations of results as they are announced will dictate direction from here.

Surely you are joking?

 

[Logique]

When I look at the daily XAO chart, I think gee this could run in 2013, but looking at the weekly, I'm not convinced.

I found this article on the net, it's a good US context read for techies, one thing that did stand out is the historically high P/E of the US market (>22), but reversion to long term mean P/E could indicate a quite a large market fall in 2013.

The inevitable stock market crash of 2013
http://www.triwealth.com/the-inevitable-stock-market-crash-of-2013/

 

[kid hustlr]

Surely you are joking?

lol'd

Anyone make anything out of the early intraday highs? 6 of the last 8 sessions we post a high in the morning then fade away for the rest of the day. Eyeballing the last 3 months it looks to happen pretty frequently on the SPI (even in an upward trend) but the occurrences have been even more severe the last couple of weeks.

Big boy distribution?

 

[notting]

Big boy distribution?

Yep

 

[kid hustlr]

She liked those consumer expectations + job numbers

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I sold everything today. Top of channel. I don't think the pullback will be strong, but that's what I'm waiting for.

 

[MrBurns]

I sold everything today. Top of channel. I don't think the pullback will be strong, but that's what I'm waiting for.

Brave move

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Brave move

I think I'm a bit out, but hopefully not too far.

 

[stevier95]

What are everyone's thoughts about the future movement of the XAO over say the next few weeks.
Sentiment seems to be picking up a bit.
ASX200 added 1.3% this week, the biggest weekly gain in around 7 weeks.

 

[burglar]

... we post a high in the morning then fade away for the rest of the day. ...

I noticed this several times recently while watching both NAB and the XAO
Then it occurred to me that NAB might be a pretty big component of the XAO

 

[Gringotts Bank]

If 4823 doesn't mark the top today, I'll eat my hat.

 

[skc]

If 4823 doesn't mark the top today, I'll eat my hat.

XAO's high today is 4803 so...

Enjoy that hat

 

[Trembling Hand]

If 4823 doesn't mark the top today, I'll eat my hat.

Based on what? Outside the fins it looks neutral. My super duper "never fail RSI" is saying that actually most stocks are in a basing pattern and could pop higher the next 5-10 days.

What sort of top are you talking?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Here's my chart. I need a new hat anyway. Thinking back to 4720, something along those lines.

 

[skc]

Here's my chart. I need a new hat anyway. Thinking back to 4720, something along those lines.

What are you useing for your XAO chart? The numbers look different to those on Iress

 

[Gringotts Bank]

What are you useing for your XAO chart? The numbers look different to those on Iress

My cursor was sitting on that number (4844) when the screen shot was taken! I have 4799 at the moment.

 

[kid hustlr]

I'm still leaning towards further movement to the longside. My limited experience tells me sell offs generally happen quickly and given the steady churn we've had over the last several weeks i think we go up from here.

Also is that 2 inside days in a row?