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XAO Banter Thread

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CanOz said:
Yeah, that's the SPI Burnsy...the contract closes sometime before the cash opens, giving you a heads up to where the cash will open...It just follows the S&Ps anyway.

CanOz
Click to expand...

Ok thanks CanOz , that shows you how much I know........
 
MrBurns said:
Ok thanks CanOz , that shows you how much I know........
Click to expand...


A lot of people don't realize that australia has a pretty good electronic after hours index future session...access to this data is to always on your basic bank broker sites...understandable.

CanOz
 
This week the xao dropped a further 20 points. This compares favourably with the 100 point drop the previous week. The market reaction to the news out of China, that their domestic growth was regaining momentum, was almost over looked early in the week as our market continued to head down.

Fortunately the news seeped through and our resource sector started to regain some impetus on Thursday/Friday which helped offset the retraces of the financial & property sectors along with Woolworths and Telstra. NAB issued a shock report. Profit down on the exposure to the UK which is starting to look like a bottomless pit to everyone but the chairman of NAB. Telstra was up on the Defence contract then down on the SA acquisition.

The immediate future looks bleak. Europe keeps rearing its' head as a basket case (Spain & Greece in particular with their high unemployment and economic uncertainty). The U.S has been hit with a massive storm adding further disruption to their markets already effected by the U.S. presidential elections. I suspect we are going to have a correction until the U.S election outcome is resolved and some of the storm rebuilding stimulus takes effect. If we don't stailise and rebound from here our next support level appears to be arround 4380.

 
This week, the sellers have tried to recover the support 4532, but were rejected down. Sellers still aggressive, but the trend up is not compromised.

 
sometimes in a short pos, the picture sez, this is fake......et volia...prior to local news we make a wrong-looking spike down and a buy buy buy bar appears.....

hsi bully again

the xjo moves counter to gold and alongside hsi....again, the buy buy buy bar appears prior to hsi open....so far so good......

mebe it's a day of futures playing over genuine sellers.......certainly looks that way to me.....the end of day stats are likely to support that.....
 
dbl bottom day on XJO.....even tho it ended in the red, what was notable was the XSO was in the green for the bulk of the session and being it's the risky end of the wedge it tends to support the XJO's reach into support......the cfd i am holding overnight hit down to 4220 this morning on the drag n drop SPX selling (slightly oversold by the looks) i was hanging for it to hit 4210, oh well, got most of the move......gold is a nice green backdrop for XJO too

curious the VIX has been held within tight reign/range and can be easily read to mean one of two things, there isnt any real fear or that the real fear is still come for a capitulative low...so, not much help really.....lulz at reading all the opines on the subject tho :

the XJO cfd is being bought up after the 10 min auction has closed ....doesnt look like a sell set-up thus far

$$
 
S&P500 finished on it's low just below 200 moving day average and Apple has moved into bear territory.
Not convinced of a major move down yet but, next few days should be telling in terms of providing a lead for XAO
 
notting said:
S&P500 finished on it's low just below 200 moving day average and Apple has moved into bear territory.
Not convinced of a major move down yet but, next few days should be telling in terms of providing a lead for XAO
Click to expand...

i'd rather follow the DAX for a lead especially on the back of the recent sell down kicked off by them...often-times down to whom is following whom as an excuse for a swing.....the SPX has had a steller year compared to the XJO and the best we've done is a marginally positive year over year

3 years of XSO v SPX
depends on the time frame and the approach used, i guess
 
While we are down for the third week running, the drop this week was almost non existant compared to the previous week and miniscule compared to the week before that. Never the less the upward euphoria appears to have hit a wall (a fiscal cliff edge do I hear?).



I can't see congress sending the economy into depression so I expect the debt ceiling will get lifted again (more of the same). Naturally there will be some argy bargy before the 11th hour decisions. I wouldn't be surprised to see our market drift down to the 4100-4200 area before settling into another sideways upwards trend back to the 4500-4600 levels.
 
Yes, the German tern is possibly the major influence on the recent down glance rather than elections and fiscal boogy cliff for the undertaxed rich.
German weakness likely due to stronger Euro against the US$ after QE3.
I had breakfast with an international fund board man this morning.
Was telling me manufacturing in France is all but dead!
I'm wondering how unusual it is to have oil relativly weak against what was a topping out S&P, haven't been able to understand oil recently. Maybe all the gas is having an effect?
 
The banks going ex-div today accounted for 21 points on the XJO, so we actually finished the day flat (as indicated by the SPI). Germany economic news appears to be part of the headline, but I am suprised to see the pause of QE in UK receiving little attention.

The over market is going ok but really weak patches in miners, mining services and energy... 3 days ago I was sure that we are running up to a nice xmas rally.
 
Joules MM1 said:
and in 3 days time, mebe, things like look nice again.....plenty in the time-tank till crissy
Click to expand...

erm, might need an extension on that idea, stopped out of longs.....german selling and no one wants to hold below longs; gargling barbed wire......futures in strong retreat
 

Ha!
 
Joules MM1 said:
and in 3 days time, mebe, things like look nice again.....plenty in the time-tank till crissy
Click to expand...

I think odds are against the Christmas rally this time round.
We had no real Sept/Oct weakness, which usually creates plenty of space for Santa, in fact markets were unseasonably strong.
We have the focus on FC, which is going to dominate and will probably play out till January.
We also have the reinstated democrat king spouting reinvigerated socialist hakas, and lots of dissalutioned republicans who have all the happy money not going anywhere.
There is also talk of loomng recessions in Euroland and even US.
Doesn't make for too much merry cheer.

However, underlying the current mood, we have QE3 and King Draghis' superpowers which should make markets consolidation rather strong.
The fact that oil has not risen with the markets bodes well for global stimulus so it's in pretty good shape really. Well, as far as a turd can have a nice shape I suppose.
 
I think it's going to roll over, following the DAX, and renewed sentiment about the US fiscal cliff.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
I concur. Expecting a 120 point drop from here to 4360, from the busted h&s top.
Click to expand...

Another -60(?) from here and then a moderately strong reversion back to the mean.

A second possibility is a bounce tomorrow off the long term support at 4400. Maybe this is more likely. Looking oversold.
 
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