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XAO Banter Thread

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I'm finding it much harder to find entries (I allocate an amount each month) into anything on my watchlist lately. Stocks that at least I consider quality are resilient at the moment. Still looking for an opportunity this month, it could be the first time since I started (perhaps I'm getting less eager to just buy something) that I look like carrying an amount over to the next month. It's actually not a bad feeling, feels like my decision making is becoming clearer and less imbued with emotions. Plenty of stocks that might be ok for a short-term bounce have come up, but I try not to deal in those, because I don't trust my overall accuracy over that period.
 

Apart from three smaller long term anchor parcels (2 wbc & 1 syd) we are completely cashed out as at close of trade Friday 13/7/12 (first time in three years).
All our traders are holding recent highs and we are waiting for retraces to get back in. Given the resurgence of the european sovereign debt issues (Spain) we are not in a hurry and are happy to wait for better opportunities.

Mind you, if I was a shorter, there are some opportunites in reit's, infrastructure and finance atm imo.
 
sinner said:
This opinion is based on your channel analysis, right?
Click to expand...

Channel analysis, news and opinion of irrational changes that have spiked some shares. syd retraced 7c today. would have been a good short, tighter now though.
 
Joules MM1 said:
looks like some sails can be retrimmed......4375 xjo looks good......

any particular level you think we can achieve from here?
Click to expand...

Hi. Today's hammer and a close of 4152 would keep the breakout of 19-7-12 intact. If it stays below that, I'd have to say the breakout might fail. New overhead, at approx. 4225. What's your view?
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Hi. Today's hammer and a close of 4152 would keep the breakout of 19-7-12 intact. If it stays below that, I'd have to say the breakout might fail. New overhead, at approx. 4225. What's your view?
Click to expand...

on the XAO....gotchya......

there's inverted h&s's far as the eye can see including the xjo and spx, so that's a second reason to stick with the upside plan......that plus the sentiment is way too heavy......the exact levels are fudgeable and the xjo target ratio of 4375(ish) is a 100% of the left shoulder to head and other orthodox patterning appear to be playing out which keeps our risk levels fairly close at hand right now.......still in a very large distribution set-up as far i am reading the plays......should be some very good short to med term plays for fair value stocks
 
The xao reacted badly to the International markets last night. With the dow down a further 120 in after market trading it was no surprise when the xao headed for 4100. Fortunately it found support at 4114 and the miners and finance sector staged a slow recovery. Once again investors bailed out of mining for safe havens in yield producing shares like the reit's, telstra and to some extent wow (and later in the day banking). As previously stated I think a few of these are now at a premium and I'm curious to see how long they can hold their recent highs.



It will be interesting to see where the International markets go tonight. Spain is grabbing the headlines but the Greece situation is sticking its' head up again in the background and a lot of investors are obviously panicking.
 

Are you still seeing this? I think I agree.

Big miners/energy are looking for support and the banks seem full steam ahead so perhaps there is a little bit of life in the short/medium term?? Also TLS which is like the anti trend had a decent range bar down today after having a go at getting to $4 so maybe some fundies are looking to cyclical out of defensives and into growth?

If we push to 4400ish on the XJO does your longer term distribution theory still hold or does it change things?
 

we're in the usual lackadaisical day of upwards churn on the back of o/s momentum.....even without the euro shpiel last night i think we need to go up and at least retest the zone where selling enters most across the board.....we would need to break upside in an impulsive manner but even then, with recent patterning suggesting we're in large cyclic exiting, i think, we are likely to get another cupla head fakes before we can make a solid low....everytime these "other view" ideas come into shape they just fall apart and cement never seems to dry.......my best guess is to be on very small time scales with any plays unless there's a stock play at fair value with higher than historic yield on offer in which case the volatility is a negligible factor.....
 
.....i got long the xjo cfd at 4145 yesterday and closed 1/3 today at 4190.....i think we can get a lot higher in the index but it's tenuous action and for mine not an endorsement to buy anything......
 
Ya well said Joules.

TLS actually finished slightly in the green today but did see some resistance on higher volume fwiw.

Have a good weekend.
 
Todays recovery/rebound is probably artifical based on irrational exuberance because some dork came out and said "we will not let the euro fail".
With respect, they only have so much capital they can use to bail out the likes of Greece, Portugal & Spain from their soveriegn irresponsibility and from the sounds of it the capital is going to run out before they get arround to saving italy. Ooops!!



Next week will be interesting. Will the shorters come back and push down through the stop losses of the enthuisiastic overly exuberant buyers of today, causing a sell down? Or have they closed out their shorts and retreated leaving the xao to break out upwards?
 
More evidence of the AUD influence, here is MSCI World priced in AUD and NYSE in AUD. The chart's aren't normalised so it's more about correlation than magnitude of moves.




Interesting to note, the AORD is doing much better than either index shown since the start of June!

IIRC 2010s underperformance was due to the announcement of the MRRT. 2012 performance much more inline with international stocks.
 

poss to expand on that, sinner?

what is the influence over or on?
 
Important R breached yesterday which has the potential to indicate a regime change.

i.e. cover active mean reversion shorts and wait for long setups, neutral/bullish bias above 39.5.

Preferable setup is a low volatility drift, I've highlighted some (far from ideal) examples on the ROC(1).

I guess it's also time to size up the momentum portfolio on Friday.



P.S: Anyone holding SLF? I've got some in my super since Feb, doing lovely.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
What's your view?
Click to expand...

so far so good, GB

soon as the cash closed, in fact, soon as the 10 min post cash auction was complete the cfd went positive and neever looked back.......the pre-cash spx cfd also went pos well prior to the news annoc, implying by action, that the news was well written into price........buyers engaged albeit on lower volumes......there's a bunch on technical ideas in the xjo that call for more upside......keeping a close eye on money flows

 
On the monthly chart, the Coppock Indicator has turned positive. Although it has a long lag time, it seems to be discussed a lot by more conservative investors such as Alan Hull and Colin Nicholson.
 
tinhat said:
On the monthly chart, the Coppock Indicator has turned positive. Although it has a long lag time, it seems to be discussed a lot by more conservative investors such as Alan Hull and Colin Nicholson.
Click to expand...

Walter Murphy says of the 35 global indecies he tracks 28 are positive curve, too

edit:

ah...there we go:

The MSCI All-Country Index fell 0.2% for its second straight decline. The Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 28 of the 35 non-US markets that we follow on a daily basis.
Click to expand...
http://www.wminsights.com/Commentary/PublicBlog.aspx
 
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