XAO Banter Thread

[Gringotts Bank]

so far so good, GB

soon as the cash closed, in fact, soon as the 10 min post cash auction was complete the cfd went positive and neever looked back.......the pre-cash spx cfd also went pos well prior to the news annoc, implying by action, that the news was well written into price........buyers engaged albeit on lower volumes......there's a bunch on technical ideas in the xjo that call for more upside......keeping a close eye on money flows

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Your target looks safe Joules.

My chart is slightly different. Can't post it at the moment, but thinking 4330 looks about right as a short to medium term high.

 

[Joules MM1]

Your target looks safe Joules.

My chart is slightly different. Can't post it at the moment, but thinking 4330 looks about right as a short to medium term high.

hows that chart coming along, GB

xjo cfd hit symmetry resis 4306 precash early this morning and sold off most of the session inviting shorters and weak longs to let go .....i think we'll get through that level overnight which use to be popular sports a few years ago so no reason we cant continue that tradition

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Joules, I'm liking these parallels because they seem to be getting a few touches. Last circle is round about 4350... depending how long it takes to get there (since it's sloping).

 

[nulla nulla]

The recent highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher. On the back of the recent euphoria about the "save the euro" and "U.S jobs" the international markets are spiking again and our xao is having an upward burst. Is it sustainable though?



Or will we do an about face when we reach 4500?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

High of 4347. I'm thinking this leg might be finished soon.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Not much of a pull back. Long again tomorrow.

 

[Logique]

This is the chart that has me watching it closely, especially with the price of gold looking well supported at 1600.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Not much of a pull back. Long again tomorrow.

GB as the great systems designer you are I would love to know what edge you have discovered that tells you to go long after the market has ran 200 points in 10 days. Especially considering the last 2 years!!

Surely if you're looking to get long the edge is an entry at the bottom of the range rather than the top?!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

GB as the great systems designer you are I would love to know what edge you have discovered that tells you to go long after the market has ran 200 points in 10 days. Especially considering the last 2 years!!

Surely if you're looking to get long the edge is an entry at the bottom of the range rather than the top?!

The big miners and banks are overbought (12 day ROC). But on occasion, overbought conditions can continue to run. So I'm looking for another little spurt, because there are a lot of mid cap stocks with big gaps and long green candles and that doesn't tend to happen at a top.

 

[Joules MM1]

This is the chart that has me watching it closely, especially with the price of gold looking well supported at 1600.

a few challenges of intepretation with these charts......first, low volume can imply low participation not a clear bullish divergence, this looks more like an instrument going into winters rest, a final volume purge might be a signal to get long where......

second both indicia highlighted have a tendency to revert to zero, that is, they'll move back to neutral bias until price levels out, like a concussive effect a skimming stone on water, they are simply mimicing what youre already seeing in the price itself......the bb isnt really telling you anything other than what both highlighted indicia are saying: the evidence is in the price itself

youre trying to nail a bottom here on anecdotal ideas that are (of themselves) yet to be proven, afterall, gold can be said to be holding up at 1600 which is different to finding and testing a low and moving decisively away (up) plus gold was making it's (nominal) new altime highs in sept 11 distinctly not supporting this chart, cdnx

ideas to mull over

edit:

i should say that the indicia reacts in a wider sweep even tho the price swings are much smaller relative to the recent momo of the decline so when you see a divergent signal what youre actually seeing is a commensurate response by the indicia, afterall, the indicia is not linearly connected to length of price only the swing event, imho

 

[sinner]

GB as the great systems designer you are I would love to know what edge you have discovered that tells you to go long after the market has ran 200 points in 10 days. Especially considering the last 2 years!!

Surely if you're looking to get long the edge is an entry at the bottom of the range rather than the top?!

You can short-term swing trade the right stocks at the top of the index range:

e.g. http://engineering-returns.com/2010...-trending-stocks-within-an-overbougth-market/

In fact, I do like this sort of setup much more than swinging from the bottom of the range, returns are much better correlated to "bull markets" here which means less concern from me that I'm buying into the start of a trend change.

 

[Joules MM1]

Joules, I'm liking these parallels because they seem to be getting a few touches. Last circle is round about 4350... depending how long it takes to get there (since it's sloping).

GB, thanks.......only just saw your chart now.......we're clearly in an upward corrective phase, imho.....thus, if i take orthodox regime such as the wave principal, the 50% level of the upwards channel suits very well as a rejection point (we're there right now) so we have some wood to chop before a bunch of money gets to buying and gives it another spirt upwards.....although i havent studied the xao like the xjo, i'll wager there's a few ratio'd resistances in this zone too as we hit into the vpoc and encounter more selling......

i like this view

 

[Joules MM1]

The big miners and banks are overbought (12 day ROC). But on occasion, overbought conditions can continue to run. So I'm looking for another little spurt, because there are a lot of mid cap stocks with big gaps and long green candles and that doesn't tend to happen at a top.

strength in today.....slow burn-ups tend to have follow-through.....the US seems to be in a correction within an uptrend and the HSI looks similar......

excepting the p!ss poor volumes

 

[Gringotts Bank]

strength in today.....slow burn-ups tend to have follow-through.....the US seems to be in a correction within an uptrend and the HSI looks similar......

excepting the p!ss poor volumes

Yeh plenty of stocks moving up freely, but on small vol. The big red candle on the Ords seems a distant memory. Indian summer.

 

[Joules MM1]

hoopla ! XXJ 80+

 

[Gringotts Bank]

There's been times in the past where you'd buy every stock that rose 6% (at +6%) on high volume, sell at EOD, and make a killing. It's happening again. The ease of movement factor is as high as I've ever seen.

 

[Joules MM1]

looks like some sails can be retrimmed......4375 xjo looks good......

any particular level you think we can achieve from here?

made it and small slap today, looks innocuous enough.....mebe a few sideways days this week

 

[tinhat]

made it and small slap today, looks innocuous enough.....mebe a few sideways days this week

Just looking at my portfolio - CBA and TLS both ex-div today so that is going to put a dampener on the indexes.

 

[skc]

Just looking at my portfolio - CBA and TLS both ex-div today so that is going to put a dampener on the indexes.

16.4pts on the XJO due to ex-div today. So we are actually up a bit.

Basically the premium between the XJO and SPI tells you there is roughly another 15-20pts in dividend is coming out of the index between now and the Sep expiry.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I think like the top will be rounded and irregular, rather than sudden and clearly defined. That means it's still low risk trading environment, IMO.