XAO Banter Thread

[nulla nulla]

Although the xao continues to creep higher, the two speed economy is becomming more and more evident. One share that I have previously used as a barometer of investor confidence is MQG. MQG is normally reflective of the degree of investor risk appetite. At the moment MQG is languising while the xao is reaching for new (recent) highs.

No doubt resources will continue to underpin our economy but the rest of the sectors are still sorting themselves out and haven't shaken off the fallout from the gfc, imo.

One good thing is that money appears to be getting cheaper and a lot of companies are refinancing debt at better rates. At least there is one good thing happening in the non resource sectors atm.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Well, here we are... new territory. I guess a correction will happen at some point but right now, we're newly into the highest point since the GFC.

 

[Julia]

Perhaps, but still a long way from the pre-GFC highs, something that should give everyone who was sucked in by advice to "just hold on, it will all be OK" food for thought.

More generally, on the GFC and moral hazard, this article is worth a read.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank-bailouts-mask-a-system-in-decay-20110410-1d9f0.html

 

[Boggo]

Perhaps, but still a long way from the pre-GFC highs, something that should give everyone who was sucked in by advice to "just hold on, it will all be OK" food for thought.

Agree Julia, that is a single digit profit fund manager approach to locking in their annual fees.

The XAO is in an interesting area on the weekly chart, if it gets through 5130 it is definitely a positive sign.

Just my

(click to expand)

 

[PinguPingu]

Heavy negative signs from overseas markets tonight..

 

[Gringotts Bank]

No one has predicted a low turning point yet, which I suppose to mean we have a lot further to go, downwards.

I think maybe 4800 or 4630.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

20/21 April seemed weak, despite decent gains on Ords.

Today very subdued again. Little participation in the smaller end of town. Market desperate for good news.

 

[sammy84]

Are we in a position now where when the AUD strengthen further this will have a negative effect on our market?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Hopefully that's the low for the day (-59).

 

[sammy84]

I like today's price action. Today's rejection of weakness at minor support coupled with a weakening of the AUD (hopefully the AUD is undergoing a slight retrace as we speak and RBA decision tomorrow could spead this up). Was stopped out of one position at the open. Will be scanning for long set-ups tonight.

 

[sinner]

Starting to see signs of small cap underperformance, this is the XSO weekly (XKO minus XTO = XSO), the oscillator down the bottom plots the relative strength of XSO vs XAO on a 52 week basis.



At least in the Aussie markets, it seems like smallcaps lead the moves.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I agree. Small caps are all I trade and there has been very few opportunities in the last week or so. Everything I buy gets rapidly sold off and it's time to stay out altogether I think.

The markets in general (world markets) have gone too long without positive news and it's starting to take its toll. The Osama/Obama thing is irrelevant to economic performance, as the DOW showed last night.

 

[sinner]

So you don't short, Gringotts?

How do you make money when the market is going down? Just stay flat?

Small cap weakness, easy money on the short side if you can find a pig with too much lipstick on already.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Well I can normally find enough long opportunities even in bear phases, but I am finding it tough going at the moment. So no, I don't short. Taking some advice from your signature and letting the mud settle. I've decided to trade only if the futures indicate a green day. Day trading only at the moment.

 

[nulla nulla]

Where to from here? If it doesn't find support here at 4800 will 4600 be next?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Asian markets are driving the XAO much moreso than the US at the moment... obviously. But if we can't manage a solid 40-50+ points tomorrow, we're headed for approx. 4700 (trend line).

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I wouldn't say these trend lines are all that convincing. But they are the best i can find. They indicate a small reversal upwards, with a high of approx. 4900 this week. Or, a drop to 4700 if we don't put on decent gains tomorrow. IMO.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I can't see any reason for the market to turn back up with any strength. Main reason is that sentiment sucks. I think we'll get another pause, similar to what happened 4-8 days ago. Sticking with the Heineken- Asahi chart. Trendlines @ 4724 (today's close) and 4690 (minor) and 4650.

 

[nunthewiser]

personally think it sitting around a major pivot point and would expect a bounce around here.

i could be wrong

often am

 

[Gringotts Bank]

If it holds above +60 for the day I'll have to re-enter before close. But only for some gap action overnight for stocks with high $ turnover. NEN is the only contender for that sort of trade at the moment. edit: IDO too. been gapping lately.

I like to see runners. For me, specs stocks that are running through multiple price steps and putting on 40%+ signify a healthy market sentiment. Not seeing it yet. Volumes still low too.