XAO Banter Thread

[nulla nulla]

Hoo ray up she rises, hoo ray up she rises.....like a drunken sailer the xao continues to stagger about, falling down, getting back up and then falling down again.



Meanwhile the trend is my friend, but my bags are packed and i'm ready to jump ship as soon as we hit any more foul weather.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

-25 Monday.

Cancel that. +25, taking it to a high of 4865. Short term top and down leg starting Tues.

 

[awg]

Something very weird just occured.

Channel 10 Finance report at 5.30 Mon 28th, reported we had a very good day with the XAO up 47 points

A great day for the miners with FMG up

It really did just happen, there would be a podcast to backme up surely?

I did finish up for the day, but I just dunno were they plucked that from

must be some other days report

 

[cutz]

Channel 10 Finance report at 5.30 Mon 28th, reported we had a very good day with the XAO up 47 points

Yeah it was pretty weird, maybe it's tommorrow's report.

 

[nunthewiser]

short seems fair to me

the time has come.

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

Cancel that. +25, taking it to a high of 4865. Short term top and down leg starting Tues.

You should have stuck to your guns! The low for the day was down 17 points. Your prediction of -25 was pretty close (I'm ignoring the close ). Interesting to see what happens today. Fairly low volumes traded on the DJ / FTSE over the past few days.

 

[sinner]

Interesting contributions on this thread. Thanks everyone for your thoughts!

FWIW I can see the same wave count posted by Boggo and tech, seems reasonable to me. The R:R is good so long as we don't intersect wave 1 down then it's ok to keep a short bias.

Chart is a little crowded, but all important info.


1. Fib retracement, we retraced nicely the wave 1-2-3 down impulse in wave 4 back to the 61.8%.
2. 55EMA acting as resistance for last high close.
3. Yesterdays action printed as an inside bar. Aggressive traders might be interested in using this as an entry point (in either direction I guess).
4. Raff/linear regression channel. Conservative players should be waiting for a close outside this proposed wave 4 channel before going short for wave 5.
5. Jan-March period is just about finished. March-June period is coming up, we will almost certainly not be anywhere near where we are now by the end of that. In this context a market neutral bet on volatility may be more appropriate than directional trade. 4800 June straddle?

All parameters nicely defined for now, make some hay while the sun shines.

 

[Logique]

..
..
5. Jan-March period is just about finished. March-June period is coming up, we will almost certainly not be anywhere near where we are now by the end of that. In this context a market neutral bet on volatility may be more appropriate than directional trade. 4800 June straddle?..

This is my thinking also Sinner. I've never made much money trading the second calendar quarter. Neutral is good for now. So it's a mix of shorts and longs, to me that's the percentage play atm.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

You should have stuck to your guns! The low for the day was down 17 points. Your prediction of -25 was pretty close (I'm ignoring the close ). Interesting to see what happens today. Fairly low volumes traded on the DJ / FTSE over the past few days.

I just plain got it wrong zzaaxx.

I think the problem with our market right now is that for the past 2 weeks, everyone has been expecting the next corrective phase to hit. When everyone expects the same thing, it either delays the move considerably, or it simply never happens. I got sucked in to the 'group think' without even realizing. A good reason to avoid these sorts of forums!

Once again today, very few DT opportunities. I missed EMS, and the rest of the filed looks blahhh.

 

[aarbee]

I just plain got it wrong zzaaxx.

I think the problem with our market right now is that for the past 2 weeks, everyone has been expecting the next corrective phase to hit. When everyone expects the same thing, it either delays the move considerably, or it simply never happens. I got sucked in to the 'group think' without even realizing. A good reason to avoid these sorts of forums!

Once again today, very few DT opportunities. I missed EMS, and the rest of the filed looks blahhh.

I had a similar experience. I was in five long positions and baled out on 8/3/11. As the market was falling, I was patting myself thinking how clever I am. I am a mechanical systems trader and generally don't look back on my trades, but on 25th just as an exercise I worked out the hypothetical result if I stuck to my system and stayed in my trades. The result was quite illuminating. (See Attached)
Moral of the story: Just stay with your system.
Having said that, I am still very curious to explore the possible advantages of the Wave counting etc and the application of same in my discretionary system which I intend to insulate from my mechanical trading systems.

Cheers

View attachment Lost Profit.doc

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ok I'll have another shot. We just saw the short term top at 4927! It's on a major trend line after all.

I agree that participation is quite important aarbee. Being ready to trade each day, whether you get the signals or not.

 

[sinner]

This is my thinking also Sinner. I've never made much money trading the second calendar quarter. Neutral is good for now. So it's a mix of shorts and longs, to me that's the percentage play atm.

Just for the record, since I posted the idea and thought others might be curious...

BHPZK8/BHPZJ8 $46 straddle June 23rd expiry, going for 1.94/1.795 = $3.735 premium - at market. So you would get paid dollar for dollar short or long below 42.265 or above 49.735, to see a 1:1 on the premium risk, would need to see $53.47 or $38.53 at settlement.

 

[Logique]

ok I'll have another shot. We just saw the short term top at 4927! It's on a major trend line after all...

Today I'm more amenable to that theory Gringotts. Although the two week uptrend is as yet unbroken, tonight is the last session of the first quarter in the US. What happens next will be telling.

 

[nulla nulla]

Moving closer to 5000 and possibly beyond. The 5050 - 5100 level looks like a major resistance point to me.
As previously posted I am expecting another correction, probably triggered by further unrest in the middle east pushing the oil price higher or one of the European lot defaulting on sovereign debt or needing a bailout.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I can't find a single stock that has moved in the last hour. Just like when the tide is at its peak, it appears not to be moving.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Not sure what brought that on (@ 2pm), but a close below yesterday's high would be quite significant, I feel. (ie. 4969).

 

[kingcarmleo]

World markets are looking up, reckon we might go higher tomorrow.

 

[tech/a]

Not sure what brought that on (@ 2pm), but a close below yesterday's high would be quite significant, I feel. (ie. 4969).

Toppy SPI
FTSE and DAX currently.
US has a mind of its own so anything could happen tonight.
Two consecutive closes off its highs by a fair amount--pretty nervy--will come off with a bang if/when it does.

 

[Boggo]

Its at an interesting point at the moment tech/a.

Below is a weekly chart, if this count is correct we need a break through 5130 for a new upward trend to be in place but this scenario is still leaning towards another leg down.

Is this what you see at the moment ?

(I am hoping that it keeps going up, the last month has been my best for 2011 while constantly expecting and predicting a downturn, weird game this eh ! )

The daily chart is in an 'in between' situation until something gives in either direction.

Weekly XAO chart, click to expand.

 

[tech/a]

Pretty well Boggo.

Your spot on in my view.