XAO Banter Thread

[drsmith]

After a frisky pussy yesterday and a 4% hike in the DJIA last night, there's not much "meow" in the cat today.

It kind of reminds me of what happened in the following two days after the week global markets crashed in October 2008.

 

[skyQuake]

After a frisky pussy yesterday and a 4% hike in the DJIA last night, there's not much "meow" in the cat today.

It kind of reminds me of what happened in the following two days after the week global markets crashed in October 2008.

We've had 2 solid days of intra-rallies. Everyone was just looking for any excuse to sell. Once the cpi figures came out it was quite vicious.
Could easily continue tomorrow if dow has a crap nite.

 

[insanedragons]

Goddamn the manga and anime for Case Closed are both ongoing. But the Berserk manga is even more ongoing for at least 19 years.... When are they both going to end?

 

[nulla nulla]

Straight from Colin Twiggs of Incredible Charts:

"Demand for commodities is so far unaffected, with the Baltic Dry Index breaking medium-term resistance at 3600 to signal a fresh advance. Rising demand for dry bulk shipping — primarily iron ore and coal — is likely to be short-lived considering the Chinese down-turn. Reversal below 2900 would warn of a primary down-trend (if confirmed by the Baltic Panamax Index) — and a bear market for resources stocks".

 

[sammy84]

Todays price action should pretty much invalidate any bullish divergence which was present the last few days. Still the question needs to be asked; is anyone buying today? Are we still catching falling knives?

I won't be buying the aussie session, but if we can show any signs of strength towards the close I might then start scanning for some US setups tonight.

:bbat:

 

[Trembling Hand]

Todays price action should pretty much invalidate any bullish divergence which was present the last few days.

Not for some it will probably confirm it by the time its over.

An example (without todays data),

 

[sammy84]

Not for some it will probably confirm it by the time its over.

An example (without todays data),

Agreed. I was being overly bearish and making that statement on the assumption that those morning levels would hold.

Still not sure whether this is a buy, so much volatility(which can be good from here on a short term basis) in the market. The US staged a pretty good intraday comeback a few days ago, bullish divergence was present, and look how that ended.

It will be interesting to see whether people are going to be wanting to hold over the weekend.

I take it you're short term bullish at these level TH?

 

[nulla nulla]

We seem to have turned bearish in the latter part of May and early part of June. The last two days of last week offered some hope that stability was returning. However it was reported in the news-papers over the weekend, that a lot of Australia's recovery in the sharemarket on Friday was due to the closure of short positions by large hedge funds, taking their money out for the long weekend.
The hedge funds not willing to risk the effect that a rebound internationaly might have on the Australian market on Tuesday.

 

[Logique]

Link: http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...stic-ahead-of-eu-imf-visit-20100614-y9c3.html

Greece optimistic ahead of EU, IMF visit DIDIER KUNZ
June 14, 2010 - 1:39PM

Greek politicians were optimistic ahead of a visit Monday by experts from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to check the government's progress implementing its tough austerity plan.

Early signs suggested that the controversial measures, which have provoked violent street protests and a series of strikes, were bearing fruit.

According to official figures, the overall government deficit in the January-to-May period came to 8.973 billion euros (10.931 billion US dollars) compared to 14.655 billion euros over the same period in 2009.

For Finance Minister Georges Papaconstantinou, these latest figures showed that the government's economic recovery plan was not just on the right track but ahead of schedule.
..............
The efforts of the Athens administration have already been acknowledged abroad.

Handelsblatt, the respected German economic newspaper compared Greece's efforts favourably with the Germany's austerity plan, in an editorial last Wednesday.

"Europeans can now learn from Greece, rather than Germany, how to consolidate a budget," the paper said.

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank also praised the Greek austerity programme in a speech in Vienna Thursday.

"It is based on prudent macroeconomic assumptions... It has the potential to correct long-standing flaws, because it entails a very comprehensive structural reform package," he said.

"We consider that the Greek programme has the appropriate features to succeed," he added.

At the same conference, Greek Prime Minister Georges Papandreou declared: "Today is the first time when I can look to the future with optimism."

"We have taken difficult decisions, tough but necessary decisions. And we are now witnessing the first signs that we are turning the corner," he added.
.......................

 

[satanoperca]

First chapter in the GFC - Lehman Brothers goes broke
Second Chapter - a country defaults on sovereign debt and all hell breaks loose in the world markets
or
Black Swan events occurs. Eg BP well is imploded which causes the crude to flow out at 1,000,000 barrels a day causing the largest and most significant environmental disaster the world has ever seen. Or one of the Koreas gets jack of the current situation and nukes the other.

Whichever the case, the current world economic system is running on a knife edge and sooner or later it will fall and lots of people will get sliced.

As for the XAO, a run up to 4650-4750 based on bullish optimism (got to love that what ever it is) or pull in the last suckers before it starts the next major leg down.

Cheers

 

[Julia]

At the same conference, Greek Prime Minister Georges Papandreou declared: "Today is the first time when I can look to the future with optimism."

"We have taken difficult decisions, tough but necessary decisions.

Goodness, Mr Papandreou must have been listening to our very own Dear Leader who is constantly "taking difficult decisions, tough but necessary decisions".

 

[wayneL]

At last Australia is exporting her culture...

Ahhhh she'll be right mate, she'll be apples.

 

[satanoperca]

At last Australia is exporting her culture...

Ahhhh she'll be right mate, she'll be apples.

But I like apples.

 

[nulla nulla]

Colin Twiggs: "A number of major markets, including the Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite, have indicated the start of a primary down-trend, but there are now signs of a widespread resurgence, with bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) warning of a bear trap".

 

[satanoperca]

THE powerful Bank for International Settlements has judged that the European sovereign debt crisis is shaping up as a repeat of the US subprime mortgage debt meltdown.

Surely this will have an impact on our XAO just like the subprime did.

I'm amazed with all the knowledge and technology in this world that the world financial system is in such a weak and fragile state.

Also the so called discover of a $trillion minerals find in Afganistan is a development worth watching. Starting to make sense why the US are still there, not for the benefit of the people of the land but for their own greed.

Cheers

 

[nulla nulla]

Last nights action on the djia was consistantly positive throughout the trading day. I don't know what the volumes were like. Hopefully we can have another positive day on the xao in the abscence of any negative news from off-shore.

 

[professor_frink]

About average volume nulla nulla

 

[nulla nulla]

We need a break out above the current resistance levels or risk falling back to lower support levels.


In the abscence of increased confidence and increased volumes, in my opinion we are at risk of another correction.

 

[nunthewiser]

We need a break out above the current resistance levels or risk falling back to lower support levels.
View attachment 38002

In the abscence of increased confidence and increased volumes, in my opinion we are at risk of another correction.

Personally think we cactus from here for a lil while and currently positioned with that bias.

i could be wrong and belt my stops fairly quickly.

and gday Nulla

 

[nulla nulla]

G'day gero.
Your abscence from chat is noticable. I hope your building project is going well.
Like you I think we will see another correction. But it may be delayed while the market bounces through the reporting season.
Once that is out of the way, it will be back to the reality of sovereign debt problems overhanging the market.