XAO Banter Thread

[nunthewiser]

I'll be taking most of my free carried profits, maybe tomorrow... just in case I'm wrong and the bears are right and a major C is underway.

If I'm right I'll buy back at lower prices.

And if your wrong ?

No trailing stops?

I may be looking at a bearish scenario shortly but im also a realist in the fact i could be wrong and not selling my in profit longs until they dictate to me to bail out via my trailing stops ( which may or may not be right , but they are MY levels of concern if hit).......

No hedging of positions? just a straight out sell it all ?

 

[nunthewiser]

Sorry whiskers if my post came accross as agressive .

Nothing wrong with taking the cash off the table at anytime one wants or thinks thats the time to do it ..

Your cash after all .

Just rather surprised that someone that uses tech analysis for there trading is going down that path when no actual major technical reasons are actually showing for a complete selloff of ones holdings as yet .

each to there own

 

[Whiskers]

And if your wrong ?

No trailing stops?

I may be looking at a bearish scenario shortly but im also a realist in the fact i could be wrong and not selling my in profit longs until they dictate to me to bail out via my trailing stops ( which may or may not be right , but they are MY levels of concern if hit).......

No hedging of positions? just a straight out sell it all ?

I didn't take offence nun... just I am confident we will correct back further before we go higher and mainly use the opportunity to change the bias of my stratergy and portfolio if things pan out as I expect.

Not a big fan of hedging. I just watch closely and mostly sell on a combination of signals when I think they've about done their run... as in top picking or ocassionally didn't fire as I thought they would.

All I'm holding atm is some medium and small miners and explorers.

I've got a nice profit out of the particular sector and stocks and coming to an opinion that when this current wave of corrections including base metal prices is over, assuming it's only a minor correction another sector is undervalued and is poised showing signs of out performing the pack, like that famous EW expression, a good third wave impulse,

So I may put some back into same stocks, spread portfolio into potential undervalued sector stocks or stay mostly cash if big wave C eventuates. I may short currency or gold as the case may be, but not likely to short larger stocks mainly because I haven't paid them much attention lately. I've been mainly focused on and got better returns on some of the medium and smaller ones that got a real hammering on the way down since I like bottom picking too.

 

[nulla nulla]

With thanks to Colin Twiggs of Incredible charts, the following chart puts the building "sovereign debt" situation in perspective. At the moment global markets are literaly stumbling from one crisis to another while trying to convince themselves everything is getting better. As Mr Twiggs states "You can't borrow your way out of a financial crisis".

The chart below compares projected 2010 deficits to net public debt, both expressed as a percentage of GDP. Nations below the diagonal line risk falling into financial distress. The diagonal represents two risk factors as a single measure: (1) the larger your public debt, the more precarious your position, and (2) the greater your current deficit (below zero) the faster your financial position will deteriorate. The US, for example, with net debt below 60 percent is in the same risk category as Italy, because it is running larger deficits. Greece and Japan are obviously in the worst position, but the UK and Ireland*, with deficits greater than 10 percent, risk joining them within the next five years. If you invest in bonds, as PIMCO does, countries above the diagonal line would offer the least risk of default or inflation.
The further a country is below the diagonal, the closer it is to "junk bond" status.

 

[nunthewiser]

Intresting stuff Nulla ......... poor ole Norway sitting all safe annd sound on its lonesome

FWIW i have entered another 3 short positions 1 more financial and 2 resources . ALL small positions , no sheep stations involved ..

I could be wrong , often am.

I still hold longs and have no reason to exit as yet.

 

[gooner]

Intresting stuff Nulla ......... poor ole Norway sitting all safe annd sound on its lonesome

The wonder of sitting on gigalitres of crude oil. Another resource economy that seems to be doing OK? Australia

 

[chops_a_must]

I think we'll head towards about 5200 and pulling back into the low 4000s, even high 3000s at the end of the year.

 

[nulla nulla]

I was surprised at how close Germany is to being on the wrong side of the indicator. They seem to trumpet how the other Euro members should be managing their economies and they are borderline themselves.

 

[nulla nulla]

Thanks for the links Satanoperca. I have loaded them up here so anyone else interested can get some perspective of how other traders are reviewing the live data/information that influences trading/entry/exit points.

 

[Little_Luka14]

Does anyone have experience trading the Garltley 222 pattern. Seems like a good example at the moment with the XA downleg from the recent high and a good even ABCD pattern following up. Sorry my image is so sketchy....any tips?

Some of the resorce blue chips like BHP, WPL and RIO are matching up very strongly too....(although its nothing revolutionary for blue chips and index to mirror each other). Looks like a clear sell if this pattern carries out...unfortunately.

I can also see a head and shoulders pattern about to complete, neckline at 4520, second shoulder about to complete matching up with our october high. Any thoughts......?

I dont usually like to try and pick tops/bottoms but these two patterns stood out to me.

 

[Kryzz]

Thanks for the links Satanoperca. I have loaded them up here so anyone else interested can get some perspective of how other traders are reviewing the live data/information that influences trading/entry/exit points.

Is that webiress nulla? What broker too if u dont mind me askin?

Cheers

 

[nulla nulla]

Is that webiress nulla? What broker too if u dont mind me askin?

Cheers

You would need to ask "satanoperca". It is "Iress" based but not sure if it is the comsecIress version or one of the other platforms. I was trying to determine how to set up an interday (1 minute) chart with the trade volumes and satanoperca kindly provided some samples.
Unfortunately it looks like he uses a full screen on high resolution, where-as I combine my interday chart with a weekly chart, depth screen, trading analysis and watch list.

 

[donkeykong]

ASX slipped under the 4800 mark again today, hopefully this is the start of a clear movement rather than the narrow ranging which has been happening over the past week.

 

[MRC & Co]

With thanks to Colin Twiggs of Incredible charts, the following chart puts the building "sovereign debt" situation in perspective. At the moment global markets are literaly stumbling from one crisis to another while trying to convince themselves everything is getting better. As Mr Twiggs states "You can't borrow your way out of a financial crisis".

The chart below compares projected 2010 deficits to net public debt, both expressed as a percentage of GDP. Nations below the diagonal line risk falling into financial distress. The diagonal represents two risk factors as a single measure: (1) the larger your public debt, the more precarious your position, and (2) the greater your current deficit (below zero) the faster your financial position will deteriorate. The US, for example, with net debt below 60 percent is in the same risk category as Italy, because it is running larger deficits. Greece and Japan are obviously in the worst position, but the UK and Ireland*, with deficits greater than 10 percent, risk joining them within the next five years. If you invest in bonds, as PIMCO does, countries above the diagonal line would offer the least risk of default or inflation.
The further a country is below the diagonal, the closer it is to "junk bond" status.

Interesting post Nulla Nulla. Thx.

But what about private debt? Japan for example, is in a much better situation than most other nations.

 

[white_goodman]

Interesting post Nulla Nulla. Thx.

But what about private debt? Japan for example, is in a much better situation than most other nations.

essentially borrowed the debt from themselves

 

[Naked shorts]

essentially borrowed the debt from themselves

yaaa
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/08/167701/japans-brewing-fiasco/

 

[MRC & Co]

essentially borrowed the debt from themselves

Exactly, which is where that chart does not provide a good example of 'soverign risk'.

 

[BNECBD_DayTrader]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree, for a little while at least, then I think the next leg will be to 5000...

 

[BNECBD_DayTrader]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree, for a little while at least, then I think the next leg will be to 5000 ...

Will be interesting to see what the David Jones does tonite ...

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Will be interesting to see what the David Jones does tonite ...

They having a sale ?