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i see WHC is up nicely .. is everyone getting lumps of coal for Xmas ??
( i hold WHC 'free-carried' )
( i hold WHC 'free-carried' )
XAO Banter Thread
- Thread starter clayton4115
- Start date
No, I'm holding the slow one, YAL
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no last minute shopping ( on the ASX ) for me it seems
looks like a week end of peeking in dusty corners for forgotten treasures
good luck everybody
stay safe
looks like a week end of peeking in dusty corners for forgotten treasures
good luck everybody
stay safe
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XAO up early then fell in a heap all afternoon. I see that overseas markets fell a little including gold, copper. Did we just follow the bearish sentiment? Is the dip getting bigger? [rubbing hands in anticipation of selloff ]
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25 trading days without touching short term moving averages, digestion should be expected but is it something to read into or not?
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I agree that a pause and dip is natural after such a strong rally. The selling today with no significant news was unexpected after a modest start. The depth of this pull-back will be interesting. I'm slightly bearish as I don't see any reasons for our market to continue higher. I've still got a "buy the dip" outlook so I'm waiting for the dip to pause first.
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It's only Jan 8, I would say most moves should be considered noise.
That said, todays move -0.51% move was well within bounds for both realised and implied volatility
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Good for bboz
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Speculating here and technical analysis isn't really my investing focus but if I look at a chart of the S&P 500 and stand back then what do I see? Looking at a weekly chart:
I see an almost uninterrupted rise from the March 2020 low to a high on 31 December 2021.
Then the market came almost half way back down, with the low in mid-October 2022.
Then trended back up with the latest high being on 29 December 2023 at almost exactly the same level as two years prior followed by an immediate pullback.
A major double top? Two highs, both right at the end of the calendar year, with a low roughly half way in the middle chronologically has me a bit suspicious as to what's going on.....
I wouldn't be having so many bear thoughts if not for the fundamental backdrop of an extended inverted yield curve, the Fed shrinking its balance sheet and so on but if I look at that backdrop, then I look at the chart, well bearish thoughts to occur.....
That's for the S&P500 but there's a reasonable correlation with the ASX usually.
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Not especially bullish that for sure but the fall today allowed me to complete my first bunch of super long term stocks.Speculating here and technical analysis isn't really my investing focus but if I look at a chart of the S&P 500 and stand back then what do I see? Looking at a weekly chart:
I see an almost uninterrupted rise from the March 2020 low to a high on 31 December 2021.
Then the market came almost half way back down, with the low in mid-October 2022.
Then trended back up with the latest high being on 29 December 2023 at almost exactly the same level as two years prior followed by an immediate pullback.
A major double top? Two highs, both right at the end of the calendar year, with a low roughly half way in the middle chronologically has me a bit suspicious as to what's going on.....
I wouldn't be having so many bear thoughts if not for the fundamental backdrop of an extended inverted yield curve, the Fed shrinking its balance sheet and so on but if I look at that backdrop, then I look at the chart, well bearish thoughts to occur.....
That's for the S&P500 but there's a reasonable correlation with the ASX usually.
With my luck, probably not far from the peak but at least not at the peak
Even if you want to enter at current prices, it is often worthwhile to have a trigger buy at a reasonable level vs latest charts
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Does the total return chart change how you feel?
MSCI USA CAPE ratio is also quite extended
(h/t Barclays)
That's for the S&P500 but there's a reasonable correlation with the ASX usually.
There is when there is but there isn't when there isn't.
Our yield curve:
(h/t ASX)
RBA balance sheet (I put 0 faith in CB balance sheets as a market driver but including it for completeness - you can see our market has been resilient to runoff)
(h/t RBA)
MSCI Australia CAPE:
(h/t Barclays)
US vs Australia sector composition
Not to say a selloff in US stocks wouldn't result in some sympathy sales here in Australia but what that means for long run returns is a different story...
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Last ~5 days price action in the XJO
Compared with SPI futures that include overnight trading
seem to indicate some heavy options flow keeping the price pinned at 7500. Next OpEx is on the 18th Jan
Compared with SPI futures that include overnight trading
seem to indicate some heavy options flow keeping the price pinned at 7500. Next OpEx is on the 18th Jan
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I'm staying out of the Aussie resource sector other than gold, iron ore and uranium. Battery minerals are on the nose as prices continue to fall. Billions will be written off soon as mines won't be developed (CHN, RTR, RXM, CXO, LTR). Mines being put into care & maintenance (BHP, IGO, MIN). This may take years to resolve.
Indonesia has wrecked the Aussie nickel miners seemingly oblivious to the destruction of their own country.
XMJ - resource is down 9% from its recent high. QRE - materials ETF is down 10%.
ACDC - lithium ETF is 24% off its high.
Where's an inverse resource/material ETF when we need one?
Indonesia has wrecked the Aussie nickel miners seemingly oblivious to the destruction of their own country.
XMJ - resource is down 9% from its recent high. QRE - materials ETF is down 10%.
ACDC - lithium ETF is 24% off its high.
Where's an inverse resource/material ETF when we need one?
Dona Ferentes
A little bit OC⚡DC
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bit of a rout happening . .. cyclical or what?
from AFR today
.
Wayne might get his ute soon.
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It's a pretty depressing time for our miners. Our explorers will have to cut their costs quickly in order to survive. They'll be able to raise smaller amounts of capital to keep paying their execs but it's going to be impossible to raise huge amounts to develop production facilities.
Yeah, I'd agree with cyclical, as commodities are subject to supply / demand cycle. Currently there's no demand. This cycle trough might be a large one though.
This sector downturn is going to make it tougher to earn short/medium term profits from the ASX market. Our banks are "flying high" making new yearly highs. This pushes the XAO higher while materials are dragging it down.
Yeah, I'd agree with cyclical, as commodities are subject to supply / demand cycle. Currently there's no demand. This cycle trough might be a large one though.
This sector downturn is going to make it tougher to earn short/medium term profits from the ASX market. Our banks are "flying high" making new yearly highs. This pushes the XAO higher while materials are dragging it down.
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When your bullish wide range
gets completely swamped by supply in the overnight market
Back to 7500?
gets completely swamped by supply in the overnight market
Back to 7500?
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The Oanda AU200AUD CFD tracks SPI futures so 7521 shown here as a 50% retracement of the recent upmove is not the same as 7521 on the cash XJO, I actually think it's very very close to XJO 7500
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This is quite insightful.
Getting into an overbought state and staying that way is generally a bullish syndrome.
Some intraday demand already appearing at the 19 day EMA (aka 10% trend)
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