XAO Banter Thread

[Smurf1976]

@Smurf1976 Thanks for sharing a bit more info re your investing strategy. I loved that post.

No worries, I'll post some more......

Currently holding shares in 12 companies (trading ASX listed shares only). 3 are large caps, 3 are mid cap, 6 are small cap.

At present levels 4 of those 12 are a Buy, two of them having an extremely strong signal there, 7 are a Hold and 1 triggered a Sell signal on Friday which will be actioned on Monday.

Still long the S&P 500 and short the ASX via ETF's.

As a bit more analysis, comparing the market leading up to August 14 versus the market over the past 4 weeks:

Prior to 14 August:

*Around 25 directly held shares with some minor fluctuation around that number. This was around 12 large cap, 8 mid cap, 5 small cap with some minor variance over time.

*Long the S&P 500 via an ETF

*Long the ASX via a fund

Since 14 August:

*Mid caps were exited first. Buy signals dried up and Sells triggered.

*ASX fund sold next and short position taken.

*Large caps then exited. Buy signals had already dried up, now Sells triggered.

*Nothing has changed regarding small caps and the S&P 500 ETF in terms of Buy / Sell triggers.

My point isn't so much about my trading as the underlying market. A change occurred mid-August that was quite noticeable and thus far it's still present.

In terms of my own trading though, well total account balance is presently down 1.27% from the all time high. Not ideal but could be worse.

 

[peter2]

@Smurf1976 Thanks again. I'm curious and would like to know what did you see at Aug 14th that indicated a change in the market?

The prior two weeks in the XAO were both up, XAO near new high (just below 6300). US hitting record highs.

 

[Smurf1976]

@Smurf1976 Thanks again. I'm curious and would like to know what did you see at Aug 14th that indicated a change in the market?

Simply that an existing system started identifying fewer opportunities. That's the simplest way to put it really.

Looking at individual stocks, and there's roughly 180 - 190 of them give or take a few which pass the fundamental screen, then simply the SELL triggers outnumbered the BUY triggers and roughly halved the number of stocks held. The mid-caps went first then the large.

Without detailing exactly how the numbers are being crunched, ultimately all of us have the same data and that's the actual trades occurring in the market. That's stating the obvious I suppose but perhaps worth pointing out - no matter what indicator or other technical approach anyone comes up with, ultimately they're just another way of analysing the same data.

At the moment nothing's really changed, still bumbling along with ~12 stocks. The odd one being sold and the odd one being bought but overall nothing too exciting.

 

[barney]

the SELL triggers outnumbered the BUY triggers and roughly halved the number of stocks held. The mid-caps went first then the large.

Similar here Smurph ..... i only eye-ball price action with no scans but have had to let a few go for the same reason .... Specs, not Mid-Caps etc for me but similar scenario. Baked beans again this week

 

[Smurf1976]

As an update to previous comments, things are looking slightly better.

Presently hold 15 stocks two of which were bought on Monday 28th.

Today, Tuesday 29th, buying two more due to BUY triggers based on Monday's trading. That brings it to 17 stocks held spread across large, mid and small caps. So the number of stocks held seems to be increasing again after having flat lined at 12 - 13 for a several weeks.

Given it's a strictly rules based number crunching system with zero tolerance and discretion, that means more stocks now meet the criteria although I'll sound a word of caution that the index itself, the XJO, has not given a buy signal only some individual stocks have. So the index short is still held despite owning an increasing number of individual stocks. That could be seen as "interesting" in some ways.......

My comments aren't a recommendation to buy or sell anything and are just my observations.

 

[qldfrog]

As an update to previous comments, things are looking slightly better.

Presently hold 15 stocks two of which were bought on Monday 28th.

Today, Tuesday 29th, buying two more due to BUY triggers based on Monday's trading. That brings it to 17 stocks held spread across large, mid and small caps. So the number of stocks held seems to be increasing again after having flat lined at 12 - 13 for a several weeks.

Given it's a strictly rules based number crunching system with zero tolerance and discretion, that means more stocks now meet the criteria although I'll sound a word of caution that the index itself, the XJO, has not given a buy signal only some individual stocks have. So the index short is still held despite owning an increasing number of individual stocks. That could be seen as "interesting" in some ways.......

My comments aren't a recommendation to buy or sell anything and are just my observations.

For what it is worth,similar here with slow reentering in a bull mode for daily.been hit hard in the last 2 weeks

 

[Smurf1976]

A new post-crash high for both the All Ords and ASX200 today.

What happens tomorrow, whether we stay above the previous highs or come back down, could be rather telling as to where it's heading longer term.

 

[over9k]

JNJ trial's failed - futures have flipped from green to red immediately. Tomorrow/tonight will be a red day.

 

[bohn]

JNJ trial's failed

?
The trial was paused from what I read (not 'failed'), and and this is incredibly common (especially in large trials). Sometimes they are only paused for a few days, sometimes longer. We will have to wait and see.

 

[over9k]

Either way, futures have flipped, so today's going to be bad.

 

[peter2]

While Dr FF-Fly and I are shorting the QQQ and making out like bandits, I thought I'd look through the ASX top 50. I've been trading in the gutter for the past few months and I'm a bit out of touch with the top end of town.

Well, I need not have bothered. Our top 50 look terrible. I could find only 8 that looked healthy.
ALL, COH, FMG, GMG, JHX, MQG, SHL, WES.
How is our index going up?

Edit: Different story with the MIdCap 50. Lots of good up trends here.

 

[peter2]

Oh, come on. I wanted a bigger dip than this!
I've got a stack of stocks I'd be happy to buy if the price was a little lower. The RR has to be better than this.

 

[over9k]

U.S futures are looking good, that's why - the market obviously reckons this gamestop etc stuff is in the rear view mirror. But it thought that last thursday and then friday was a massacre.

If it doesn't happen tonight, expect armageddon tomorrow. I bought AMC & GME simply as hedges on account of the whole rest of the market getting smashed because of them.

 

[peter2]

Thanks, I keep the charts close.
The price of $GME remains surprisingly high. I'm short XRT waiting for the $GME bubble to burst. This week should be interesting.

 

[gartley]

U.S futures are looking good

SPX futures reached short term target and now just a bounce

Close to setting up a projection of 3566

 

[qldfrog]

Anyone knows if the rba is purchasing stocks, the XAO makes no sense today except if the RBA was involved.
One would have to be deranged to gamble on a local market rise before this night's action in the US imho

 

[over9k]

Thanks, I keep the charts close.
The price of $GME remains surprisingly high. I'm short XRT waiting for the $GME bubble to burst. This week should be interesting.

View attachment 119409

Either way, here's my personal pot of madness:

 

[Knobby22]

Anyone knows if the rba is purchasing stocks, the XAO makes no sense today except if the RBA was involved.
One would have to be deranged to gamble on a local market rise before this night's action in the US imho

No , it's just that the Australian economy has bounced back (unlike many other economies which are covid ravaged) and there is a lot of interest in our economy internationally as a safe place, hence the rising currency.

Also it is risk on for Super investors who will be switching out of cash.
Also it is a Monday, the ASX often rises Monday.

There is a lot of money about, hence inflation risk. Once we bring back the students and immigration the economy is going to be running hot.
Look at the latest sharp rises in the property sector for evidence.

 

[over9k]

Rubbish. AU has paralleled U.S almost constantly, including and especially the last week. The only days where it doesn't follow what USA did the night before is when there was no night before. You know, mondays.

On those days, traders look to U.S futures instead:




Here's your correlation:



And here's the u.s dollar vs everything, it's tanked against absolutely everything except the GBP last i checked:



AU doing relatively well has vanishingly little to do with AUD purchasing power at the moment. EVERYTHING is running against the USD. Or to be more specific, the USD is tanking. If it were just about AU, only the AUD would be up, and that's not what we see. Ergo, the cause can be found in the U.S.


If anything we should be tanking today on account of the security guard testing positive and the associated lockdowns in W.A as the mining industry being kicked in the nuts = armageddon for this country.

Instead, we see the opposite.

If america sneezes, the world catches a cold. C'mon man, this is econ101 level stuff.

 

[Knobby22]

Fair comment however:
1. The ASX isn't always lockstep with the USA.
2. Heaps of volume on the NASDAQ. Also lots of margin loans.