Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Banter Thread

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It's an absolute bloodbath. Worst day since march. Expect political/fed/ppt/an act of god action if it continues.
 
over9k said:
Yes, he waits for me to buy or sell and then makes the market do the complete opposite of whatever I was expecting it to do.
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I hate to disappoint you but I have it on good authority that God is a left-handed woman. I think I bought a pastry from her once at the local art show. She didn't seem too interested in anything to be honest.
 
Jokes aside, when not even gold is spared, then the politicians' portfolios are going to be effected. This is the kind of thing that spooks them into action. It's pure self interest on their behalf obviously, but at least the rest of us get saved as well.
 
I'm not joking. Do you think God cares about your portfolio, of those of politicians?

You invoked your God. Did you do so in Jest?
 
tinhat said:
Do you think God cares about your portfolio, of those of politicians?
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Depends whether or not God shorted the index first..... :xyxthumbs

Seriously, well I'm just following my system which is purely number crunching based and FWIW I bought BBOZ on Monday but I also hold a long S&P500 ETF. Taking leverage of BBOZ into account they're of equal value.

Still holding some direct ASX listed shares but a lot of sells in the past few days has diminished the portfolio considerably. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
Depends whether or not God shorted the index first..... :xyxthumbs

Seriously, well I'm just following my system which is purely number crunching based and FWIW I bought BBOZ on Monday but I also hold a long S&P500 ETF. Taking leverage of BBOZ into account they're of equal value.

Still holding some direct ASX listed shares but a lot of sells in the past few days has diminished the portfolio considerably. :2twocents
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I find it hard to read BBOZ as a turn around from the chart. Did you have a trigger to buy? Perhaps you have discussed this elsewhere.
 
The current channel has, at least this week, had between 1.5% & 3% swings per DAY though.

C'mon, this is not normal.
 
I'm down about 4%.
There is so much money sloshing around, I can't see it falling too far or for too long.
 
over9k said:
The current channel has, at least this week, had between 1.5% & 3% swings per DAY though.

C'mon, this is not normal.
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I very crudely added the lines onto the chart below a few days ago. Tradingview.com saves any drawings you make on your charts until you delete them. The XAO data is delayed by about 30 mins I believe. Given where resistance is sitting (orange line) a nice little shake out is not unexpected.

upload_2020-9-4_14-25-50.png

I sold down some of my portfolio yesterday. I wish I sold more now. I am down 4% today. Even if we don't see a proper correction before then, I think we will at least continue to see volatility leading up to the November USA presidential election.

Tradingview allows you to save one chart template for a free account. Following on from this morning's discussion you will be pleased to note the title I have saved my template as "quis ut deus".
 
tinhat said:
I very crudely added the lines onto the chart below a few days ago. Tradingview.com saves any drawings you make on your charts until you delete them. The XAO data is delayed by about 30 mins I believe. Given where resistance is sitting (orange line) a nice little shake out is not unexpected.

View attachment 108666

I sold down some of my portfolio yesterday. I wish I sold more now. I am down 4% today. Even if we don't see a proper correction before then, I think we will at least continue to see volatility leading up to the November USA presidential election.

Tradingview allows you to save one chart template for a free account. Following on from this morning's discussion you will be pleased to note the title I have saved my template as "quis ut deus".
Click to expand...


that's commitment for ya
 
Knobby22 said:
I'm down about 4%.
There is so much money sloshing around, I can't see it falling too far or for too long.
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Yeah I'm the same (4.01%).

KGN's dropped over 10% though. Last time it did this, it rebounded 11% literally the next day. Food for thought.
 
tinhat said:
I find it hard to read BBOZ as a turn around from the chart. Did you have a trigger to buy? Perhaps you have discussed this elsewhere.
Click to expand...
In short we have our own indicators.

As agreed with two others who were involved developing the system I can't disclose exact details of how it functions but as a series of dot points:

*Intended to work with stocks only. That said, a major index could be deemed to comply given that it is comprised of stocks the majority but not all of which would pass the fundamental criteria.

*Calculated after the close each day.

*The entire market is potentially included subject to each stock passing the filters.

*First filter is fundamentals - approximately 180 stocks on the ASX meet the criteria. In short they must have an actual business up and running and it needs to meet certain criteria.

*Second step is an analysis of recent trading. This generates a Buy / Hold / Sell signal. This is a number crunching exercise and generates a single figure as the output.

*Any Buy signal must pass a liquidity test in order to be actioned. This test looks at 12 months' of data.

Friday 14 August was the last trading day which was "normal" post-March 2020. After that a deterioration was observed centered on those mid-cap stocks which pass the fundamentals test. Buy signals dried up, and sell signals have now triggered for most of the mid cap stocks held.

Friday 28, analysed after the close, produced a clear Sell signal for the index. This was the trigger to buy BBOZ with position size taking into account its leverage. It is noted that there might be better ways to implement a short position - the focus has been on the system to generate the signals, BBOZ being simply a convenient way to action it noting that shorting the index is a very minor part of the overall approach which centers around directly held stocks.

A reduction in the number of large and small cap stocks held was triggered early this week. That is, Sell signals were triggered.

As of now:

13 stocks are held in addition to an S&P 500 ETF and BBOZ.

6 of the stocks held are large cap, 2 are mid cap, 5 are small cap.

2 stocks triggered a Sell signal today. This will be actioned on Monday. One is a large cap materials company, the other is a small cap IT company. Both of these trades were unsuccessful and the exit price should be close to the buy price with a minor profit or loss.

8 stocks triggered a buy signal today. 4 of these are already held so no action will be taken for those, 2 fail the liquidity test so no action, the other 2 will be bought on Monday.

For information only and my comments are in no way a recommendation to buy or sell anything. There is no guarantee that my trades will be profitable. :2twocents
 
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To me the market has become boring and is in a waiting mode.
I can't see it doing much except tread water till early next year.

Once the US election and some real vaccine success occurs then maybe we'll see a bit of a move up but there is going to be a long slow deadening effect caused by the creation of multiple zombie companies due to coronavirus.

It will be a stock pickers paradise for those able to read balance sheets.
 
@Smurf1976 Thanks for sharing a bit more info re your investing strategy. I loved that post.

@Knobby22 I agree with you that the market will remain in this "zombie" state for quite a while. However I see it as a very tricky time for both tech traders and value investors.

Tech/chart traders may find that we have to start many more trades just to earn a profit. Letting a loss get bigger may erase those profits quickly.

Value investors, I just can't see them thinking that there's any value with stock prices as high as they are. If they didn't buy at the COVID lows in March then I can't see them buying anything now.
 

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