XAO Banter Thread

[Dona Ferentes]

I love the smell of fear in the morning

... it will make a great base pattern from which our market can rally strongly.

Robert Duvall

& after a few days, will it "smell like victory"?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

1 min chart showing the days action with gold priced in AUD overlaid



you can see gold was doing it's job going in the opposite direction of the market until about 15:00.

Those highly correlated liquidations of uncorrelated asset classes are what we saw all over March.

Someone is dumping liquid assets, de-risking their entire portfolio, irregardless of price. A rush for the exits, via whatever liquidity is in the book.

I hold GSBE47 which seemed to remain bid at least.

 

[MrChow]

Big boys taking a lot off the table today, ASX200 -5%.

- May to October historically loses 4 out of 10 years on average
- Historically Paced Rally in the lead up priced for a smooth recovery
- Trump Tariff Threat on China
- Friday Risk Off
- Capital Loss Selling sneaking in before June EOFY.

 

[Modest]

Downside target 4900

 

[flightcrank]

lets hope were at the top of a dead cat bounce. and the market crashes and burns from here. There a few sharks in the water ready to strike !

 

[fiftyeight]

This BEAR wont finish me off or let me go, just keeps playing with his food

View attachment 102054

Nibble nibble nibble, this BEAR still wont let me go.

Yesterdays action was entertaining, but all it has done is take things back the middle of the Keltner Channel.

If I am keeping the hopium alive, it is a 5% move, closed below 5300, lower 1/4 of the channel and as @InsvestoBoy pointed out gold joined the party later in the day.

 

[bohn]

and the market crashes and burns from here

Sorry to hear you missed out on the buying opportunities in late March.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

just an update of that 1 min chart with gold in AUD overlaid

 

[fiftyeight]

just an update of that 1 min chart with gold in AUD overlaid

View attachment 103174

After hours dont count

 

[flightcrank]

Sorry to hear you missed out on the buying opportunities in late March.

i did buy. but in a volatile market its a good idea to keep some in reserve for further falls. sounds like you lost some money and are bitter about it. thats the game bud.

 

[bohn]

and the market crashes and burns from here

What are you seeing to cause the markets to crash and burn from here, other than getting back some missed profits?

 

[flightcrank]

What are you seeing to cause the markets to crash and burn from here, other than getting back some missed profits?

probably a once in a century global pandemic, the likes of which the modern world economy has never seen.

whether they drop further or slowly rise. You can only be a winner in this market over the long term. Missed profits ? I think not.

 

[bohn]

probably a once in a century global pandemic, the likes of which the modern world economy has never seen.

The market knows about this. Trump's tweet re tariffs on Friday caused some uncertainty - that was new news. The virus isn't new news, and what's more, we will be re-opening things soon. Other countries are talking of re-opening as well. That is good for the markets, not a 'crash and burn' response.

 

[flightcrank]

That is good for the markets, not a 'crash and burn' response.

its hard to 'price in' something that has never really happened before. But like i said, whether its crashes further or slowly recovers. You can only win over the long term in this market. I hope it crashes and burns. There are allot of sharks that can see the market thrashing about the surface waiting to strike.

Its not about missing the march lows in one lump sum. Open your eyes, there still low mate. Ive just been averaging in the whole time. but at the first sign of a further crash. You have to be ready to take some bigger bites !

 

[Logique]

It won't be a bottom until the big boys have gotten on (fundies incl. berkshire). They can read read a chart and so can I. Telling tales out of school, sorry Warren

 

[Smurf1976]

The market knows about this. Trump's tweet re tariffs on Friday caused some uncertainty - that was new news. The virus isn't new news, and what's more, we will be re-opening things soon. Other countries are talking of re-opening as well.

In the case of the US it would be a brave call to say that they really will be re-opening anytime soon. Trying to yes, actually doing it is another matter entirely given they haven't even contained the virus yet.

Problem for Australia being that regardless of how well our re-opening, economic or stock market goes, we're going to be dragged down if others sink and in the context of the market the US in particular is a major influence.

I'm not predicting a fall there, but I'm not predicting good news either - my point is that nothing's really certain at the moment and the usual approach taken by most of extrapolating the recent past doesn't work under current circumstances.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm not predicting a fall there, but I'm not predicting good news either - my point is that nothing's really certain at the moment and the usual approach taken by most of extrapolating the recent past doesn't work under current circumstances.

I think that is the whole point at the moment, with shares I personally am only buying those that aren't influenced by overseas income, I'm not saying they wont be affected, but over the long term Australia is on an upward trajectory most other Countries aren't.
To expand on that Australia is a growing Country, most other Countries are near full capacity, that is why most migration is inward not outward.
As we 'fill up', our lifestyle will move toward the norm, unfortunately the media is cheering it on and the rest are too busy sucking on it to care.
So as our population increases, so will our rubbish and our banking, so in for a penny in for a pound.

 

[Roller_1]

What is everyone's short term view on the asx200? (CMC CFD)

I think if we get back below 5340 here soon, we could visit 5210ish pretty quick

 

[PZ99]

Expectations for tomorrow... 8.3% unemployment. This popcorn consumer expects (probably incorrectly like last time) a wild swing one way or another

 

[PZ99]

Unemployment 6.2% - that's good yes ?