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XAO Banter Thread

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The chart I present is the the All Ords Index of the Australian Market adjusted for dividends. One can very easily gain exposure to the ASX200 index via STW and exposure to the ASX300 index via VAS. The index is a mechanical trading system based on Market Cap traded quarterly - by default as a company's share prices falls, market cap falls and they go out of the index (although some go broke whilst still in the index but normally the index is so well diversified one going broke has little effect on it). It is a classic example of the saying let your winners run and cut your losers. The strong survive.

If one wishes to pick their own shares, then that is a real risk - picking shares that underperform the market (index) or other shares - there is also the opportunity to pick shares that outperform the market, of which there are many eg CSL, COH, ALL, REA, MFG, CTD to name a few.

The shares you mention look to have been strong dividend yield payers at one point or another. Maybe that was the reason one may have accumulated them???? Surely you had others that went on to make many multiples of the buy price?
 
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willy1111 said:
The shares you mention look to have been strong dividend yield payers at one point or another. Maybe that was the reason one may have accumulated them???? Surely you had others that went on to make many multiples of the buy price?
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That is all true, but take for example the Banks,at the moment they are on the nose.
They have been great dividend payers, but in reality, your capital could well end up back at what it was 10 years ago.
Most investors that wish to make an income from dividends, tend to hang on to ones that pay good dividends and sell ones that don't.
I guess that may be one of the reasons, LIC's and ETF's, are becoming more popular.
 

This is a fair bit off topic, and I am just showing my ignorance here... I do wonder where the money is coming from? If this is all being financed with debt and interest rates go up and if steel prices fall (after all this business is tied to the market for an underlying commodity) things could all turn south. I just wonder about the quality of the funds being used. Is there any transparency around the financing of Gupta's business empire?
 
I find the timing of this market downturn perplexing as none of the key leading indicators that predict a recession within 12 months (typically) have ticked over yet so to me this is mistimed based on news narrative.

I'm probably just repeating myself but I'm high conviction that the market will be positive for the next 6 months and would be surprised if these losses (whatever they amount to) weren't fully recovered by mid year.
 
I must stop looking at the overseas markets.

I see red.

She goes down.

Down down deeper and down.

Unfortunately the obvious musical reference missing is the one that I want - Money for nothin'
 
Smurf1976 said:
I must stop looking at the overseas markets.

I see red.

She goes down.

Down down deeper and down.

Unfortunately the obvious musical reference missing is the one that I want - Money for nothin'
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Multiple musical references so I guess the bands you had in mind were
Split Enz did (I see red)
Motley Crue (She goes down)
Status Quo (Down down)
and the most apt one being... Dire Straits.

10cc Wall Street Shuffle has good lyrics too
 
MrChow said:
I find the timing of this market downturn perplexing as none of the key leading indicators that predict a recession within 12 months (typically) have ticked over yet so to me this is mistimed based on news narrative.
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Are you operating under the assumption that the market can only fall as it discounts a recession?
 
Future down a far bit. Another very poor year most investors

Tax revenue up, clearly something wrong with our sharemarket
 
InsvestoBoy said:
Are you operating under the assumption that the market can only fall as it discounts a recession?
Click to expand...

Generally, as the most extreme example of the 1987 crash fully recovered the discounting by 1989 as there was no real world follow through.
 
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Things aren't looking good. Last time the XAO was at these levels was exactly two years ago but it was travelling north instead of south. Support at 5,700 has been breached. With US markets looking very shaky I think we'll see 5,500 before the end of the year.

 
As of this minute the US is 0.9% off a bear market.

You'd think it's in alot of people's interest to get it done with, possibly as soon as tonight, if not by end of year.

I'm super bullish on a comeback to previous highs in 2019 before we run into the real deal.
 
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Interesting on what % fall is qualified as a bear market. At this current juncture most people's portfolios have ripped to shreds..

Given the current fear and persistent selling, can't see a long lasting rally starting any time soon. Downtrend will persist till Feb/March before any meaningul rally gets underway.
This is gonna be a long bear me thinks and an excursion back to GFC lows eventually.
 
kid hustlr said:
It’s entirely possible this is the start of a bear market but I’d be interested in how one justifies the s&p back to 675?
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This is the XAO banter thread, who said anything about SPX? As for the XAO, given the corrective looking advance off the March 2009 low that didn't make new high, then it would be surprising to see a re test of 3050 again before the bear that started in 2007 is finally finished
 
My philosophy is the timing of this pullback is not yet supported by fundamental deterioration so I think we'll see a significant recovery that will mirror whatever the magnitude is IE. a +20% type bounce.

Yield inversion is possible in H1 2019 but that typically is around a 12 month leading indicator suggesting no recession until 2020.
 
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Apologies I saw the reference to the S&P above and assumed.

I agree no new highs in the index is a concern however I wonder if the accumulation index is more appropriate given how heavy dividend paying out stocks are
 
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