XAO Banter Thread

[Smurf1976]

So is this the biggest 'dead cat bounce' in a 100 years, or a return to the bull market?
I'm for the former.

One sign you're in a bear market is extremely powerful rallies.

The Dow going up 5% in a single session is thus not necessarily a good sign from a long term perspective. If your thinking is that we're in a bear market then a move like that is another symptom.

 

[qldfrog]

And the up sidedid not go far in wall street...taking a bashing again

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

XAO be -0.20% today

 

[qldfrog]

Good time to get out in my opinion

 

[Wysiwyg]

In this case it's mass fear and if you think I am wrong then why has the residential property market been tanking for the last 12 months, because of the market pro's? Don't think so

It's not the 'mass' that are in fear. It is only those directly invested in the market. The 'masses' hand responsibility to the so called 'pros'.

 

[MrChow]

XAO down -11% from the August peak.

 

[Logique]

Jan 2019 - a big bounce, if not quite a slam dunk entry for long term, but promising for the near term

 

[PZ99]

I tipped 6800 by years' end with fingers crossed.

A chartists' view would be nice

 

[mcgrath111]

I tipped 6800 by years' end with fingers crossed.

A chartists' view would be nice

 

[Logique]

I tipped 6800 by years' end with fingers crossed.
A chartists' view would be nice

There's some outstanding work going on, by many posters, in the XAO Technical Analysis thread. It's a really good insight into current market action, see at: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/xao-technical-analysis.4888/page-489

 

[MrChow]

So markets have recovered the majority of the bear market in absence of follow through on a 2019 recession. Forecasts are still for 5% ish EPS growth for 2019 with figures in from the US December period offsetting recent weakness in narratives (with the ASX to report this month).

The fear of fear was similar in 2000 and 2007 when there was a full recovery of 15% type drawdowns as premature interpretations of leading indicators.

The issue is that around mid-year there could be problems as those leading indicators do actually tick over (bad trends in US jobless / unemployment and more inverted yield curve combos) which then tracks for a 2020 recession time frame and an anticipitory decline in market in 2H 2019 similar to 2H 2018 but this time based on actual figures not the fear of them.

Without going into exact calculations yet, I would be confident to say the next recession will result in a 30%+ drawdown for the XAO.

 

[Logique]

-Will the US Fed resume monetary tightening, or pause,
- what will happen with Brexit,
- with US-China trade talks/tariffs.

It's all coming to a head, and soon. Going to be a white knuckle ride for investors. Quite honestly I don't know what's going to happen, but investors would be wise to monitor events closely

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Has there ever been a stronger time for spec stocks on the ASX?

 

[Joules MM1]

Has there ever been a stronger time for spec stocks on the ASX?

2003 - 2007

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Speccies doing a worn-out cat bounce after a 3-4 day sell off. I don't know if the cats are dead, but a resumption of uptrend would be hard from here.

Should have known, given my previous post #3073. Volumes are very low early.

 

[notting]

Let's just say I'm very, very concerned....
US budget deficit widened by $206b to $738.6b (A$1.066 trillion) in first 8 months. White House claims tax cuts will pay for themselves by creating more revenue through faster and sustainable economic growth. White House is barking mad -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...its-739-billion-with-four-months-left-in-year

 

[gaius]

Rate cut and QE solve all the world's economic problem. There is nothing to worry.

If the economy is doing well, the market will go up. If the economy is not doing well, the market will go up. Either way the market will go up. Nothing bad can happen to the market because the government wouldn't allow it.

 

[notting]

Rate cut and QE solve all the world's economic problem. There is nothing to worry.

If the economy is doing well, the market will go up. If the economy is not doing well, the market will go up. Either way the market will go up. Nothing bad can happen to the market because the government wouldn't allow it.

Well, you seem to miss one slight detail.
The value of the US$.
QE is a good idea if the $ is overvalued as it was and still is. Without that it's not really even possible.
As soon as you have debts which you cannot manage, let alone pay back. Very bad things tend to happen to that value very, very quickly and well, you get hyper inflation, bond market collapse and finally economic collapse and I'm not sure what happens after that given everyone looks to the US to see what to think and do next.
Accept for China that is.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Some of the biggest runners in the last 6 months are being hit hard. NET, 5GN, NXS.

 

[willoneau]

Hi Gringotts Banks, are you in any of them?