XAO Banter Thread

[PZ99]

be interesting to see the predictions for the XAO from posters, month and half to go in 2018

sure the xao will climb a bit, very average time for investors with the big whinge thats happening in the community

I predicted 6100 fwiw... probably need a santa rally to get there

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/969384/

 

[PZ99]

This was uploaded last year when the markets were higher than today

Interesting stuff about the ETF's at the end of the video.

 

[Logique]

be interesting to see the predictions for the XAO from posters, month and half to go in 2018
sure the xao will climb a bit, very average time for investors with the big whinge thats happening in the community

Visit: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/all-ords-went-nowhere-for-7-years.24058/page-15

 

[notting]

Unbelievable how much more appropriately our market behaves when the Yanks are stuffing their faces with turkey instead of screwing with it!!!

 

[notting]

Now they seem to by trying to catch up!
Good day for the Ausi battlers!

 

[MrChow]

Personally liking the chances of a big Santa Rally from mid-December and through to Feb back to previous highs.

Not seeing any deterioration in jobs figures in the short term.

 

[MrChow]

Here's a metric that give me confidence - the history of inversion of the 10 year bond yield - 3 month bond yield in the US and when the US market reaches it's cycle peak.

When the 10 year - 3 month yield becomes negative the US peak occurs (since 1960):

1 Quarter Before - 2 times
Same Quarter - 3 times
1 Quarter After - 1 time
4 Quarters After - 2 times

So basically there is a +60 point spread between the 10 year and 3 month at the moment and it is not anticipated that the Fed will hike more than 60 points (to create a negative spread) until 2019 Q2 or Q3.

This means for this cycle peak to have come and gone in October it would have had to occur 2 or 3 Quarters before the inversion which has never happened in over 60 years. So even if a peak occurs at the earliest point of this sample of 1 Quarter before inversion it'd mean the cycle peaking in 2019 Q1 or Q2.

Plus seasonality stats are very strong for rallies between December-April.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Just a bit of useless banter, but is it only me who has noticed over the last 5 or 6 trading sessions that every time the XJO gets above 5730 then some determined selling seems to come back in?

This is an hourly chart of the 24h CFD market for XJO...


Kind of seems like a line in the sand which price will need to conclusively win for bulls to succeed.

 

[Wysiwyg]

There has been determined selling in general for a naggingly persistent time. On the positive side it's times like these we get to test our skills at locating gems that have been discarded. ASX is a dividend investors smorgasbord.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Average situation for investors still

Probably thousand points off pre-gfc high

Are aus businesses that much of a basket case? Or do share investors need a 50yr time frame?

 

[willy1111]

Average situation for investors still

Probably thousand points off pre-gfc high

Are aus businesses that much of a basket case? Or do share investors need a 50yr time frame?

Shares do pay dividends though - so when we look at a chart of the All Ords Accumulation Index - it is 40 odd percent higher than the GFC highs.

 

[willy1111]

Shares do pay dividends though - so when we look at a chart of the All Ords Accumulation Index - it is 40 odd percent higher than the GFC highs.View attachment 90610

Interesting @Toyota Lexcen to zoom in on the All Ords Accumulation chart above from 1986 to 1996 - From the 1987 chart peak of around 6,500 after roughly 10 years to 1996 it was a similar 40 odd per cent higher as from 2007 GFC Peak to nowish. And then from 1996 to now, an increase of roughly 900 odd percent, including the run up to the GFC and subsequent 50% fall.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

That is dividend reinvestment?

Only decent if dividends reinvested.

 

[MrChow]

Off the top of my head:

Stocks lose to Bonds about 25% of the time over a 10 year period.

Stocks lose to Bonds about 3% of the time over a 20 year period.

 

[Logique]

XAO 5760,up 29 in a brave performance this morning. Seems sticky at these levels

O, how shall summer's honey breath hold out
Against the wreckful siege of battering days,
When rocks impregnable are not so stout,
Nor gates of steel so strong, but Time decays?
William Shakespeare

 

[notting]

Lot of mayhem in the US market last night and huge reversal.
Looked like a classic capitulation and blow off low.

 

[Smurf1976]

Lot of mayhem in the US market last night and huge reversal.
Looked like a classic capitulation and blow off low.

Didn't last long sadly.

Down another 1.5% now.

 

[Smurf1976]

Today's announcement at Whyalla with the steelworks expansion has a lot of relevance to the ASX generally.

How many times have we seen things like that run down and eventually close? Around Australia there would be too many instances to list.

One man from overseas has by turning Whyalla around shown that rather a lot of Australian corporate management is sadly lacking in vision and ability. At just one site he's shown countless business leaders and politicians to be lacking at best, incompetent at worst.

So it's not just broader economics or government, I think the quality of management we have in Australia and the lack of vision at least partly explains the performance of our stock market over the past decade compared to overseas markets. Too many want to go sideways or shrink, there aren't many with vision and the ability to make it happen.

 

[sptrawler]

Shares do pay dividends though - so when we look at a chart of the All Ords Accumulation Index - it is 40 odd percent higher than the GFC highs.

The problem with that is, only some pay dividends and only some companies last, a lot of charts presume you only have winners.
Imagine if your protfolio accumulated 10 years ago, included Telstra, Ten, IFL, Pan or a group of other under performing shares.

 

[IFocus]

I think the quality of management we have in Australia and the lack of vision at least partly explains the performance of our stock market over the past decade

Completely agree Smurf seen it 1st hand