XAO Banter Thread

[Modest]

 

[CanOz]

What a grind modest, what's this? Day five? Well done. At least the spi trades almost 22 hours a day?

 

[Modest]

What a grind modest, what's this? Day five? Well done. At least the spi trades almost 22 hours a day?

Swinger lifestyle mate patience is the key! Sometimes it happens right away other times it just takes longer and you just keep on reloading short

So far we're still in very good shape for my TP

 

[Sharkman]

Just entered Shorted ASX200 at 6122 Target 6020ish into US Open. Tight leash on this one

i thought the same thing. looks like it bumped up against the previous Jan peak of 6135 on the 14th, and that level got rejected with an ugly bearish candle on the 15th. i went for some Jun 6100-6200 bear call spreads on the XJO near the close on the 15th and bought the same number of Jun 5900 puts, taking in ~$200/contract. if it gets to 6000 i'll definitely think about closing out at least the bear call spread, may let the puts run a bit longer.

i haven't been trading index options for very long so i don't quite know the nuances of it vs stock options, but on the surface there appears to be some pretty nasty delta skew, the 6100 calls (ATM at the time of the trade) were trading at a 9 IV but the 5900 puts (about 20 delta) were at a ~12.5 IV. not sure if that sort of hefty risk reversal is par for the course when it comes to XJO options or not, but it would seem to indicate that the market is expecting some sort of a fall and bidding up the price of OTM puts.

 

[Modest]

The hoop is the target

Who says you can’t pick tops and bottoms?

 

[PinguPingu]

Bloody noice m8. Although I do hope for my long term momo's this is the extent of the pullback.

 

[greggles]

XAO YTD 2018 candlestick chart.

XAO can't crack 6250 and is turning down again. First try was in early January and second failure was mid-May. Dow futures turning red. Trump-Kim meeting looking doubtful. Market seems to be taking another bearish turn.

Are we headed back to 5,800?

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

share market gone nowhere for 11yrs, house prices going down, credit getting harder to get

not a good outlook for aussie investors locally

 

[greggles]

share market gone nowhere for 11yrs

Here's a monthly chart from 1 January 2005. We need another 2005-2007 again. 2008 blew a lot of punters out of the market. Hasn't quite been the same since then. Property has stolen the limelight.

 

[CanOz]

Looks like a bull trend to me....

 

[greggles]

Looks like a bull trend to me....

Agree. I expressed myself a little poorly in that last post.

When I said:

2008 blew a lot of punters out of the market. Hasn't quite been the same since then. Property has stolen the limelight.

I meant the way Australians invest. The GFC gave the average punter a fear of financial markets. Then real estate really started to take off and people put their investment dollars into residential property. Interest in the stock market waned. Markets have gone up in the last ten years but there are a lot less retail punters involved, at least directly. Everyone's mortgaged to the hilt. We need another 2005 to 2007 to re-ignite an interest in financial markets again and get the younger generations interested in it.

 

[Craton]

Totally agree greggles. The GFC is still tasting sore and adding more fuel to the dislike of anything financial is what's come to light thanks to the Big 4, AMP, etc.

I also agree that financial education of the younger set is vital for the future prosperity of not only Australians but Australia. Living on the such high levels of debt will never end well. Especially with no fall back if the older set, like me, are learning to S.K.I. (Spending the Kids Inheritance).

Seriously though, from the feedback I get the younger ones think that the stock market is all about SP and other nefarious financial instruments. They also don't realize that investing can also create an additional source of income (and any associated tax input credit) via dividends.
That raises a few eyebrows and one can see the cogs turning.

Thinking about this a little more I'd suggest too that with compulsory super included in most pay packets, the mindset is that the super fund is investing into the stock market, albeit indirectly for them anyways.

 

[Sharkman]

still maintaining 6100-6200 bear call spread + long 5900 puts. i'm no expert technician, but being in the traditionally weak may-june period as we are, and with the banks under the cosh (CBA testing and potentially breaking key support at $70) IMHO it's entirely possible the XJO drops to 5900 in the next few weeks (200 day EMA, midpoint of the last upward move from the start of apr to mid-may, more or less).

if the market gives me an opening to close out the bear call spread for around $200/contract i'll probably take it (the spread was around $270 today so another moderate fall plus a bit of decay should do it), which will leave the long 5900 puts on my books effectively for free.

main reason i did this 3 legged structure is that i've found mentally it's much easier to let long options run for a bit more once they're essentially on the books for free (the "playing with house money" school of thought), whereas if i've paid net premium i tend to get freaked out by theta as it nears the final week or two til expiry, and all too often i've found myself closing out long gamma positions right before the underlying makes its big move just to "stop paying this crazy decay".

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

most economists pushing out interest rate rise to 2020 now, no hope with that

petrol up to 1.55lt/91 ULP probably 1.70lt/98 ULP so cant see much to raise company profits

 

[Joules MM1]

most economists pushing out interest rate rise to 2020 now, no hope with that

petrol up to 1.55lt/91 ULP probably 1.70lt/98 ULP so cant see much to raise company profits

always look forward to your posts .......try the bus

 

[Joules MM1]

https://www.stockspot.com.au/what-are-etfs/etfs-compared/#spots-evaluation

for the best dressed woulda coulda shoulda crowd

 

[Sharkman]

closed out the 6100-6200 bear call spread for $110/contract on today's moderate fall

still think that the downward move has a bit further to go, the apr-may rally has been well and truly rejected at the 6135 level of the prior peak, but don't see much point in keeping the bear call spread on when it can be bought back for about a quarter of the original premium collected ($450 taken in on the bear call spread, $240 paid for the 5900 puts so about $200 for the original structure incl brokerage)

starting to think about switching out the long 5900 puts for a 6000-5900 bear put spread, which could've actually been done for a small credit when i checked the market today (buy 6000 puts @ 700, sell 2x 5900 puts @ 360 each), as the 5900 level is really what i'm targeting (200 day EMA, rough midpoint of last rally) so as Jun expiry creeps closer, probably that's the level where the short strike needs to be

 

[InsvestoBoy]

What’s going on with VAP today? Down nearly 6.5% while SLF is only down 1.3%?

 

[greggles]

US markets up overnight in spite of the looming international trade war. Should be an interesting day on the ASX.

 

[tinhat]

Dr Copper is pulling back on its outlook for the world economy. Copper price has broken down to below the 50 week moving average. Is this ending the bull run which began at the beginning of 2016?T

The risk for the US S&P500 and the Aussie market has to be weighted towards the downside tight now.