XAO Banter Thread

[CanOz]

sometimes the market opens up in the morning down

and quite frequently it close down for the day up

This is a bit confusing but yeah, quite often the market gaps down on the open and then closes up for the session. This is due to the overnight action in the futures that trade correlated to the overseas markets. It could be profit taking on shorts, or new long positions.

 

[shouldaindex]

The 2 times 5000 didn't hold, was in bear markets in 2008 and 2011.

So it's a redundent situation, 5000 will hold except in bear markets (obviously by definition).

 

[shouldaindex]

Also just noticed the XAO has outperformed the DJI by 7% since December 16.

That's a good piece of news for the XAO as the DJI CAPE is overvalued by 30% from median.

 

[Wysiwyg]

The midday news, and on cue, it's Craig James of CommSec.

It opened down, but it's coming back, says 'Pollyanna' Craig, surprising everybody

Sigh.

You're not taking a dislike toward little Craig are you?

= Majority of market commentators are none the wiser than you or I. If they are privy to market moving information they aren't gonna tell anyway. More people on the wrong side of the move is great for business.

 

[Wysiwyg]

All up from here? Bought the 200 at 4800 so go go go.

 

[PennD]

All up from here? Bought the 200 at 4800 so go go go.

I reckon... bear trap and off to the races

 

[Junior]

You're not taking a dislike toward little Craig are you?

Hey, be careful what you say about Craig James, he's a unit!!

 

[tinhat]

Men's Health Magazine is making its annual search for the ultimate everyday "Man" and it seems CommSec chief economist Craig James, a regular contributor on Nine, Seven, Ten and Sky News, is an unlikely favourite after this snap.

James, a 49-year-old married father of three, was urged by his family to enter the contest and says he was happy to show off the result of many hard hours in the gym given that not long ago he was 15 kilos heavier.

"I'm 70 kilos now but I used to be 85 and which doesn't seem like a lot but I'm only a small guy (157cm)," James told Confidential.

The winner will be announced at a red carpet event in Sydney in June.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/en...aig-james-effort/story-e6frewz0-1226022049971

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

doesn't seem to be any end to this selling

it appears the world financial markets are just hanging on

 

[shouldaindex]

I'm following the gradient from April 2015.

 

[PennD]

 

[shouldaindex]

Do parallel trend channels work better than other methods?

I know last year the most commonly used was the bottom trend line to support 5000, so seems outcomes can vary.

 

[PennD]

What other methods? I dont know much but it seams to me if the "other" trend line was so important we should have fallen further by now? So i looked for a reason snd found this. Time will tell

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

the commodities crunch gets a lot of the press, but the bear market in the big4 banks is certainly hitting the market

Nab and Anz would be down close to 30%, CBA and WBC probably 20% from the high of last year

 

[notting]

The Aussie sharemarket cops a lot of flak as a (perceived) perennial underperformer, but in a month of global turmoil it actually outperformed many regional markets and most major bourses.

The ASX200 lost 5.5 per cent in its worst start to the year since 2010, but Japan's Nikkei is down 8.8 per cent - despite more easing by its central bank - the Hang Seng in Hong Kong has lost nearly 11 per cent, Singapore's main index is down 10 per cent and the Shanghai Composite has slumped 23 per cent.

These bourses are still trading for the day, but it's unlikely a major rally will shift the ranking.

Meanwhile, before trade has started on the last day of the month, Wall Street's S&P500 is down 7.4 per cent, facing its worst January since 2009, Germany's DAX has dropped 10.3 per cent, France's CAC-400 is down 6.8 per cent, while London's FTSE-100 is holding up with a 5 per cent loss.

It has felt so much worse than a 5.5% decline even though that is quite a bit for a single month!

 

[Wysiwyg]

All Ords managed to eke out less than 1% gain today. Bunch of soft (beep)s. :frown:

 

[shouldaindex]

Man I'm so bored.

We're been at 5100 about 12 times in the past 4 calendar years.

There's no Recession imminent and it's a low growth environment for the ASX Large Caps, so could keep going that way.

 

[satanoperca]

Man I'm so bored.

We're been at 5100 about 12 times in the past 4 calendar years.

There's no Recession imminent and it's a low growth environment for the ASX Large Caps, so could keep going that way.

Low growth or no growth, with IR's lowest in history not even working, world deflation has arrived and I expect in the next year or so we will be in a recession.

The property market is the only thing that is keeping us going, but property doesn't create long term growth unless we keep on selling everything to foreigners until there is nothing left.

To make things worse, the govnuts are talking about tax reform, just hike the GST, hardly reform.

 

[shouldaindex]

Interesting macro outlook from some Superfund managers:

http://www.afr.com/personal-finance...ep-pace-over-next-seven-years-20160129-gmgous

I have a back of the envelope calculation that suggests you'll still be able to get the XAO in the 5000s in the 2020s decade, just my opinion.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Ordinary couple of days, pretty tough for long term investors going through this turmoil

Results are going to be watched very closely,