Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Banter Thread

Jump to new
whats your view on the list?

i thinks its a good summary of the factors that are influencing global markets, like Evan Lucas from IG markets i feel there needs to be some sort of capitulation/catastrophe or clarity in the markets to get out of this situation global markets are presently in

from Aug15-Jan16 we traded around 4800-5300, XAO now made a decisive move down and looks like continuing the downside
 
The worry for me is that the upside scenario for the rest of the decade is barely anything compared to the downside.

Let's say we bottom out at around 4500 (further 200 points), which will be at or around our long term average PE and CAPE.

Do we see EPS really growing 40% in the next 5 years, until the next Bear Market?

(Bear Markets have occurred within 5 years of the last for the past 50 years)

So even if we say yes to a high growth phase of 40% EPS Growth, with CAPE & PE maintaining at long term averages, and the best possible Bear Market of only -20% in 5 years time, that leaves us at 5100 in 2021 (4500 to 6300 to 5100).

Also if this picture looks bad, the S&P500 in the U.S will need to gain 30-50% in EPS just to stay where it is now, if / when their CAPE and PE reverts back to their long term averages.
 
I too am noob at this but presidental candidates ? really ? And north Korea ? Even zero hedge has better issue selection if you can keep your perma bear eye filters on.

I personally read some macro blogs I have followed for years and trust (ymmv) and also follow some people on twitter I find to have a high s/n ratio.

FT alphaville for example is great they usually have in-depth explainers on big issues driving the market. Michael Pettis is the go to blog for whats going wrong in China (he predicted the whole mess, and no he didnt get lucky like Roubini, he has an entire framework on why China is going kaput years back before it was trendy to be a China bear).

Toyota Lexcen said:
whats your view on the list?

i thinks its a good summary of the factors that are influencing global markets, like Evan Lucas from IG markets i feel there needs to be some sort of capitulation/catastrophe or clarity in the markets to get out of this situation global markets are presently in

from Aug15-Jan16 we traded around 4800-5300, XAO now made a decisive move down and looks like continuing the downside
Click to expand...
 
I read that 2 out of 3 Bear Markets regain all their losses within 12 months.

Those are scenarios where there is no Recession / Financial Crisis type outcome.

Whenever the Market hits -20% there are always going to be multiple fears around (1990 Recession, 1994 Bond Crisis, 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, 2002 Tech Bubble, 2008 GFC, 2011 Euro Debt etc) and their eventual outcome has dictated an average 35% swing (So very roughly that would project to an XAO 4000 vs 5500 from here on an average good v bad outcome).

For example the XAO lost about another -30% after Lehman Brothers, so consider if that hadn't have happened, (like how 1998 and 2011 didn't lead to a Recession or GFC and gained an average of 10% in the following 12 months) the type of swing involved in a Yes / No outcome.
 
Come on American money. I want you to really give the markets a shake and drop big time. I'm ready. :)
 
This year has been driven by Oil price movements.

Oil: $36 to $26 to $33 to $31

XAO: 5300 to 4800 to 5050 to 4950

Roughly on the same dates.
 
Yes oil and the imaginary impact it is going to have on the big4,

Like Evan from IG wrote this morning, until people get back into bank stocks its got no hope of getting into the 5000-5400 range and holding if

Whoever tipped XAO to be around 5000 will take out the comp this year
 
Aus $ takes a hit on RBA minutes and internationals start piling out of our banks.
Meanwhile gold has had some surprisingly bad days since Draghi fired his bazooka which included buying corporate bonds, the last bastion of yield. Which should be making stocks more attractive given they are all that's left. So buying banks when they are looking to get over the Ausi $ fall.
 
Looks like heading down again, no one trusts the banks world wide and this having major impact on the global financial space

Probably the realisation about growth, I don't trade but for traders these 400points swings look like a given for the next 12-24 mths
 
just a very flat market, if the US starts to fall again we headed down to 4700-4800 easy

what will turn the market around in 2016?
 
Speccies - huge day across the board.

Used to be that Aus spec market would ebb and flow. But nowadays there's always soemthing moving.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Speccies - huge day across the board.

Used to be that Aus spec market would ebb and flow. But nowadays there's always soemthing moving.
Click to expand...

The SPI appeared to be accumulated all morning, until finally squeezing some shorts out just before lunch...some interesting games going on today.
 

Similar threads

kahuna1
All trading needs to cease for 14 days prior to Monday open in Sydney
2 3 4
Replies
75
Views
10K
divs4ever
divs4ever
R
21 Lessons in Investing
Replies
6
Views
3K
divs4ever
divs4ever
kahuna1
Opinions vary... An alternative view on the markets
3 4 5
Replies
85
Views
27K
kahuna1
kahuna1
R
The Financial Endgame
Replies
18
Views
9K
qldfrog
qldfrog
Top