WW3

The immense power that the new price of oil gives to the most recalcitrant and difficult regimes in the Middle East is fundamental to today's problems. Iran and Syria are behind Hezbollah; not that they created Hezbollah, or that they control it absolutely, but they have armed and financed it and have a great deal of influence over it.

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Everybody knows Syria is behind this, backed by Iran. Everyone also knows that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons... yet no action is being taken against Iran.

Tehran can finance the supply of rockets, even sophisticated, precision-guided missiles, to Hezbollah, ... , out of loose change.

Yet, short of military intervention with all the vast dangers that entails, what could possibly be done against Iran? In a world increasingly short of oil, no one is going to subject Iran to real sanctions.

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The New York Times's Tom Friedman, an acute analyst of the Middle East, has argued that when oil prices rise above a certain level there is no prospect of democratic reform in the Middle East. This is because the governing elites have all the money they need to pay their armies, look after their friends and bribe intermediaries. And terrorists can easily extort or solicit money from these regimes.

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Iran wants attention distracted from its nuclear program. It wants a new front to wage its anti-Western campaign. It wants ideological leadership in the Islamist struggle against Israel. It wants to demonstrate its power to make the West even less likely to take real action against it.

Hezbollah may have over-played its hand but is surely satisfied that Israel is again the villain on the international stage and that it has thrown the Lebanese political order into chaos.

Israel has sought to hold a state, Lebanon, responsible for the actions of a non-state actor, Hezbollah. But the broad action against so much of Lebanon is morally wrong and strategically ill-advised.

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An Israeli strike against Syria's armed forces would have shown Assad he had to pay a price for Hezbollah's activities. Striking Lebanon, which is weak and cannot fight back, causes Assad, and the rulers in Tehran, no pain at all.

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Hezbollah's attack on Israel has exposed deep divisions in the Arab world that have paralysed the league, the 22-member bloc that has often served only to advertise how little in common the region has.

Sunni leaders' alarm at Hezbollah's move also reveals their deep fear about the emergence of a "Shia crescent" of power that would run from Iran, through Iraq, to Syria (a largely Sunni country led by a Shia splinter group) and to southern Lebanon itself.

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ISRAEL'S military campaign in Lebanon would fail, Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora has warned in an interview published in London today, hinting that it could instead increase support for Hezbollah.

The premier also said the bombardment, which has killed 327 people, mainly civilians, in just eight days, was more violent than a previous Israeli invasion in 1982.

"The result of this has been unprecedented in Lebanese history," Siniora told the Financial Times.

"What's happening has brought the country to its knees ... and rebuilding Lebanon will take years."

Mr Siniora recalled how the 1982 invasion led to the formation of the Shiite Muslim militia, Hezbollah.

"The mentality of using force has proved it doesn't yield results in Lebanon ... If you carry on doing the same thing excessively you get the opposite effect," he said.


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"Israel believes that if given more time, it would be able to break the back of Hezbollah. I think that this (assumption) is wrong. Previous experiences worldwide have proven that such outcome cannot be achieved this way".

The Financial Times.also spoke to Turkey's Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul, who gave a grave assessment of the escalating crisis in the Middle East.

"It will worsen the situation in Iraq, Afghanistan, everywhere. What is happening is not good for Israel. They think they can win, but they are not. They are weakening," Mr Gul told the British daily.

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professor_frink said:

Visual,
Depending on which side of this kind of argument a person is on will determine how they perceive those statistics-
they are discriminated against, or they refuse to assimilate.

It doesn't really prove anything conclusive.

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Australian community worker Joumana Elmatrah said her family in southern Lebanon was too frightened to leave home.

Ms Elmatrah said they had no water or electricity and had run out of food, while one relative was due to give birth soon and had a history of difficult pregnancies.

"Everyone is terrified her child is going to die," she said in Melbourne today.

Ms Elmatrah said the majority of Lebanese people living in Australia still had family in Lebanon and were scared for their loved ones.

Dr Mukhtar, a doctor and lawyer, said she had been unable to contact her uncle and his double-amputee, insulin-dependent wife in their village of Aktanit, near Sidon in southern Lebanon.

"I ring every day and every night ... the same dead silence," she said.

"I don't know what has become of my village and my family."

Dr Mukhtar said most villages were isolated as roads and petrol stations had been bombed; the supply of food, oil and electricity was dwindling and medical supplies were non-existent.

She said her birthplace Achrafieh, in the hills of East Beirut, was a Christian suburb with no Hezbollah stronghold, yet Israel had bombed it twice yesterday.

"Israel's indiscriminate and excessive attacks have destroyed in only a few hours what Lebanon has spent years and billions of dollars to rebuild," she said.

Australians for Lebanon member Robert Bekhazi said Israeli bombing had destroyed more than 400 homes and several schools and hospitals.

"The so-called war on Hezbollah looks more like a war on Lebanon every day," he said.

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visual said:

I know Professor,but at the end of the day these statistics gain currency by behaviour thats directly attributable to them.

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rub92me said:

Wrong again. Statistics are just statistics. They don't gain currency by adding your subjective opinion of cause to them.

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visual said:

and this is your opinion! ok. then enough said

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rub92me said:

Ok, let me give you an analogy. Look at the following two statistics based on a study I performed:
1) 98% of cows eat grass
2) 1 % of dogs eat grass
According to the visual school of thought this means two things: 1) the behaviour of cows gains currency to the fact they are statistically bigger grass eaters. 2) cows are better than dogs.

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carmo said:

I have just read the posts, it appears we have our "own middle east" here.
It annoys me when people are deemed "racist" because they do not agree with the elements of the culture of a paticular group.

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sam76 said:

it seems racism is a term coined by white folk who want to seem pc.

I went on a date with a Singaporean woman (living in Melb for last 15 years)2 weeks ago who said in the course of the evening that she had no allegiance to Australia or Australians.

Does that mean she's racist?

postscript: I'm not seeing her anymore.

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Rafa said:

Got no problem with Racism.... most people are racists.... its in our genetic makeup.... whoopdidooo!

However, when peoples prejudices and generalisations impact on a discussion on WWIII it does make for rather a dull, over-simplified debate

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wayneL said:

It seems people get confused between Nationalism and Racism.

Australian is a nationality not a race.

Just a Socratic question: Why should anyone have an alliegance to Australia? (I'm not saying they should or shouldn't, just examining the reasons)

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wayneL said:

It seems people get confused between Nationalism and Racism.

Australian is a nationality not a race.

Just a Socratic question: Why should anyone have an alliegance to Australia? (I'm not saying they should or shouldn't, just examining the reasons)

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visual said:

Wayne,personally I think Australians should have an allegiance to Australia because this is where we live.Perfect example,the people stuck in Lebanon,who else is meant to rescue them if not Australia,in return you then should do the same if its required of you.

This idea that we are considered something else even if born in Australia is not only ignorant,its also very dangerous.
Interestingly havent noticed any Lebanese screaming that really they are Lebanese not skips.(during the cronulla riots we certainly were inundated with that idea)All of a sudden they`ve realised that Australia is where they live and only Australia can get them out.So yes Australians should first have allegiance to Australia.


Of course it isnt just the Lebanese who hold this view,before anyone thinks I have in for them.

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wayneL said:

But what if our country (let's leave out the fact we live in Oz, this is just an example) starts a genocide of a particular race? What if our country is taken over by coup and becomes a military dictatorship? Should the Germans have had an alliegence to their country in the late 30's or early 40's. Should the Italians have done the same during the same period? Should white Zimbaweans swear alliegence to their country?

Is it the government we swear alliegence to, the land, the people? Should the government swear alliegence to it's people?

Just questions...

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visual said:

Yes but generally countries have constitutions,so in effect should the situation you are referring to happens they will be going against the constitution,so under that circumstance you then have a legitimate reason for resistance.

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wayneL said:

So The USA citizens should be resisting their government? Theirs seem to have been disregarded recently.

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