Worst drought ever

[Bobby]

Sorry Bobby didn't mean to offend....certain people get on my nerves. ..high on the list would be racists, time wasters and smart alecs.

Royce

Royce,

Lets all try to get on, sure there will be posts that upset us & warrant a rebuff, its that reply we will be judged on

Regards
Bob.

 

[2020hindsight]

ALL EXTREMISTS SHOULD BE SHOT!!!!
....
SORRY MODS - PLS DELETE THIS - MEANT TO SAY
"ALL ICED CREAM IS GETTING HOT"
ahhh - shuddup - Nite all - sorry - just been reading about Aunty Jack lol. :goodnight

 

[Aussiejeff]

Agreed about the high outflow rate from Dartmouth etc. One of the potentially serious issues is loss of power generation from these sources. Hume doesn't contribute a lot but Dartmouth is 150MW - not huge but significant in an already tight power supply situation.

But the elephant in this context is the Snowy. Sure, we could let more water out of the Snowy right now to fix the lack of water in Hume. But if that goes to the point of actually running the storages to zero then we lose the Snowy's power generating capacity. Now, that's 3740 MW (including Blowering) which is a lot by any standard, at least in the Australian context.

There is no realistic way, especially now with unit 6 (of 2, the numbering is historic) at Vales Point power station out of action following the explosion this week, that NSW / ACT / Vic / SA combined power demand could be met (at times of peak demand) without the Snowy. Well, OK, it could if we don't get a hot Summer (but a hot Summer is exactly what we're expecting), Vales Point gets a new transformer sorted out and nothing goes wrong in any of those states and also Qld and Tas are able to maintain maximum exports at peak demand times then it could work. Possible. But the odds are strongly against it.

So in practice we need the Snowy to remain operational at least partially no matter what happens with rainfall. That's going to mean not running the Snowy storages down to zero no matter how bad it gets with water in the Murray. Doing so would only delay the inevitable and add an entirely new problem, lack of power, to the consequences of the drought.

It's worth noting that there's only 666 GL left in Lake Eucumbene (the major Snowy storage) which is just over 15% full versus 1718 in Dartmouth and 308 at Hume. Hence the Snowy is no "silver bullet" to fix the problem.

In short, we're potentially in massive trouble and the Snowy offers no solution, apart from the generation of peak electricity, until such time as it actually rains.

Good point Smurf1976... I hadn't given much thought to the effect on power supplies if the hydro dam levels fall too low!

Well, thankfully it seems some pollies have at last removed the cotton wool from their ears...

From the ABC online news today: "The New South Wales Government has announced it will significantly cut water allocations for irrigators in the Murray and Murrumbidgee areas.

Along the Murray, high security allocations will be reduced by a further 32 per cent and in the Murrumbidgee, general security will be cut by 5 per cent, while high security will drop by 10 per cent.

Natural Resources Minister Ian Macdonald says the Government has been forced to make this decision to ensure towns have enough water.

"It will have a significant impact on production in the region, there's no denying that," he said.

"It's a touchy decision but it has to be taken, as the drought continues our priority must be to town water supplies." "

I feel a bit sorry for some of the battler irrigators out there, but the last sentence of the above news report is exactly how ALL politicians need to view the impending crisis.

How reducing the outflows from some of our largest dams to stretch out town water supplies will affect power output, I'm not sure. Any ideas Smurf1976?

Cheers for now,

Parched Aussie,
From Wodonga

 

[2020hindsight]

All of the following is just an exercise in multiplication, length x width x height.
People keep talking about large volumes of water in terms of equivalent "Sydney Harbours" - Personally, I still have problems visualising this ( length of river?, depth? etc)

I read Smurf's 666GL below for Eucumbene - and couldnt visualise it - so got the calculator out.
http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/levelTwo.asp?pageID=245&parentID=242

Bit of trivia, What does
A. 1 GL of water look like?
B. the volume of Sydney Harbour ? (560GL)
C. Lake Eucumbene when it's full ( 4366GL)
D. Lake Eucumbene currently (666GL)

I reckon ( might be wrong) that they are the volume of rectangular blocks formed as follows:-

A. 1 GL of water :-
apart from the fact that its 100m x 100m x 100m,
The total volume under the deck of the sydney harbour bridge is about 1.2GL :-

* the span of the arch (503m)
* clearance under the Sydney Harbour Bridge (49m)
* width (also 49m)
503x49x49 x1000 = 1.2 GL

B. 560 GL of water (= sydney harbour volume):-
mmmm 470 of the above "bridge clearance volumes of 1.2GL each",
or the volume under the bridge if its width was increased to 23kM, i.e. about the distance from South Head to Parrmatta.

* the span of the arch (503m)
* clearance under the Sydney Harbour Bridge (49m)
* width (23km
503x49x23000 x1000 = 560 GL

(or the "harbour volume" is about 500 "bridge clearance volumes"

C. When full Eucumbene is 4366 GL of water (= 7 sydney harbours):-

D. At the moment it is only 666GL ( = bit more than 1 sydney harbour, 15% full as Smurf points out)

E. Here's another mental image :-
* the span of the arch (503m)
* clearance under the Sydney Harbour Bridge (49m)
* distance to the Opera House (600m)
503x49x600 x1000 = 15 GL

Maybe measure water consumption in "Opera-bridges?

Geologically, Port Jackson is a drowned river valley, .. It is 19 km long with an area of 55 km ². The estuary's volume at high tide is 562,000 megalitres. (CALL THIS 560 GL) ...

In Australia the size of many bodies of water are referenced back to the size of Sydney Harbour, that is a body of water x is y times the size of the Sydney Harbour. For example:
Lake Argyle, the Ord river dam and Australia's largest lake, is variously described as "18 times that of Sydney Harbour" [2], "8-13 times the size the volume of Sydney Harbour." [3], and "nine times the size of Sydney Harbour" [4]. (?? bit confused there )

Warragamba Dam in New South Wales and Sydney's major water supply is described as being "4 times the size of Sydney Harbour" [5].

Lake Eucumbene, one of the major dams in the Snowy Mountains Scheme, "holds nine (eight surely??) times the volume of Sydney Harbour" [6], . (again some confusion??)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Harbour_Bridge#Description
The "volume of the Harbour BRIDGE" i.e. 48.8m wide x 503m arch span x 49m clearance above water at midspan.

PS. Overheard in pub in Sydney "what they should do to fix Sydney's water problems? - Move Lake Argyle from the Ord to Parramatta - !! Easy !!"

PS lol - multiple typos - spelling errors - hopefully corrected b4 anyone reads this

 

[Aussiejeff]

"Ho! Ho! Hum! Jingle Wells, Jingle Wells, drying all the waaay...."

A Merry Dry Xmas coming up y'all....

In the 3 weeks since my last post here,

HUME DAM has dropped from 10% to 7%.
DARTMOUTH DAM has dropped from 43% to 36%.
BLOWERING DAM has dropped from 31% to 26%.

So much for the water allocations being cut. Hasn't made a jot of difference in the past couple of weeks to the rate of dam level decline in NE Vic.

Bugger it...I'm ordering a water distilling unit from Santa Online. See, I don't quite trust the authorities to supply potable water to me within 2-3 months time!

Not only that, but the bushfires are threatening water supplies with pollution as well.... and we ain't seen nuthin' yet folks as far as the bush fire season is concerned!

Oh, cheer up...

Things can only get worse!

AJ
*HACK... COUGH*** the smoke pollution in Wodonga is atrocious this morning...

 

[Aussiejeff]

"Date 11/12/2006
Author Rod Myer
Source The Age -- Page: B3
The drought is starting to affect the power generating capacity of south-east Australia's hydroelectric power scheme. Snowy Hydro has revealed that dam storage levels have declined to a record low of 17%. River inflows over the past year have been only 25% of the long-term average, although the company does not currently foresee any issues in meeting its commitments in the national power market. AGL Energy, which owns Southern Hydro, has noted that water levels in the Dartmouth and Eildon reservoirs have been affected by the drought, which in turn will have a negative effect on generating capacity, although its contracts are protected by hedging arrangements."

Any tips on companies that might benefit greatly from supply of bulk quantities of candles?

AJ

 

[Happy]

Desalination is probably the best shot even China does it, not mentioning Libya, Israel and USA.

And new reverse osmosis systems fitted with tightly packed nanotubes are going to be great hit in not so distant future.

 

[2020hindsight]

and "Recycling" and "demand management" as I read somewhee recently.
An article by UNSW attached to the "Australian Demographics" thread - which is irrelevant to water mangement.

Lol I guess on second thoughts...as you get older, water managment can take higher priority lol.

 

[scsl]

The drought's bad as it is... this just puts a (really scary) figure to it!
From today's Commsec daily market commentary.

The effects of the worsening drought conditions will be felt for many months to come. ABARE estimates that farm cash income is likely to fall to $12,728 per farm in 2006/07 from $85,911 a year earlier – a drop of around 85%.

 

[The Once-ler]

Australia rides on the miners back now doesn't it? :

Sure does. Mining privides well over half of Australias export income.
Agriculture provides nearly 20% though. Not bad when it only employs a few percent I reckon.

Cheers.

 

[The Once-ler]

This is a great thread everyone. Sad that I only just noticed it. I would have liked to contribute earlier. Anyway, better late than never.

I notice that cotton and rice has coped it here. I notice that everywhere today, in the media too. Well, I would like to put up a slightly different view. I don't want to say rice and cotton are great, just even things up a bit.

The beauty of cotton and rice is that they are annual crops. Farmers plant the seed, water the crop, the crop dies/rippens and the crop is harvested. They certainly take lots of water, but this is the 'land of drought and flooding rains' remember. Whats the problem with catching the flooding rains in dams, releasing this water over the next few years for these crops, and generating billions of dollars worth of export income. Then when the dams are empty or getting that way, just simply stop growing these crops while the dry continues.

This is what happens now. There is very little cotton or rice planted this year as there is no water.

But, I can't work out why cotton and rice is getting the blame for the dry rivers. The rivers are dry because there has been a rain deficiency now for so long. It would make no difference whether these crops had been planted last year or not. The water that these crops used last year would have run out to sea 6 months ago. The rivers are dry now because there has been stuff all rain for the last 6 months. Or more likely 2 years ago, where the water was stored.

Right, now, the big disaster that is likely will be with grapes. Grapes cost tens of thousands of dollars to plant, and they can't just be forgotten about. They will have to be watered. How come grapes are seen as the golden crop, and cotton and rice are the villans? Rice is one of the big three grain staples with wheat and corn. Rice provides a hell of a lot of nutrition per tonne. A tonne of rice would keep a lot of people alive for a long time. What about a truck load of wine?

OK, per megalitre of water, grapes will flog rice and cotton per dollar produced, that is true, but I think we can value agriculture in other ways besides dollars.

Adelaide is another worry. It is the only city that relies on water from a catchment other than its own. The Murray River actually went dry a few times 90 years ago in another big drought. If it happens again, Adelaide, along with half the Australian grape industry will be in a bit of trouble.

Yep, why is cotton and rice the villans here?

Cheers.

 

[Rafa]

i agree, water storage is a big issue, we need to store all we can for the times of drought...

is it prudent to use it all up to grow cotton and rice knowing that we do get severe drought here every now and then...?

As for grapes, i think you need to give us some facts on % of water used for irrigation of grapes, vs rice / cotton... I have a negative view of grape growing as well, but i need some facts as to how much water it takes from the murray darling basin in particular.

 

[trading_rookie]

Is it really a drought though?

While half asleep yesterday watching Sunrise they had some Prof. on who stated that during the first 50yrs of Federation the weather was a lot hotter and the continent a lot drier, with the next 50 being a lot less extreme. He believes we're cycling back to what it was like during the first 50yrs.

I recall reading my local suburban rag and it stating how the residents in the old days (1920's and 30's) were more conservative with water usage than say later generations...anyone recall that long gone craze of hosing down the driveway! So maybe he's onto something.

 

[skint]

Is it really a drought though?

While half asleep yesterday watching Sunrise they had some Prof. on who stated that during the first 50yrs of Federation the weather was a lot hotter and the continent a lot drier, with the next 50 being a lot less extreme. He believes we're cycling back to what it was like during the first 50yrs.

I recall reading my local suburban rag and it stating how the residents in the old days (1920's and 30's) were more conservative with water usage than say later generations...anyone recall that long gone craze of hosing down the driveway! So maybe he's onto something.

Not sure what the Prof smoked for breakfast but here's the annual temps since 1910. Sorry, not sure how to turn the web address into a hyperlink.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20060104.shtml

 

[The Once-ler]

i agree, water storage is a big issue, we need to store all we can for the times of drought... is it prudent to use it all up to grow cotton and rice knowing that we do get severe drought here every now and then...?

.

Well that is my point. We do get droughts, so we don't grow cotton and rice when we get one. Why not grow these crops in the nine out of ten years when there is water, rather than just letting the water run out to sea waisted. There is hardly any planted this year as there is no water. These crops are annual crops. That is the beauty of them compared to grapes. I think annual crops are more suited than perannial.

The dams that supply water for cotton and rice are west of the divide. This is because the water fell here. Its not a simple matter to pump it over the hill so city people can use it. Besides, city people haven't worked out yet what a rain water tank is. There is hundreds of thousands of litres of water per house running of the roofs of city houses now. It's all just currently waisted.

Remember that most of the dams were built to catch water for irrigation, and in some cases, paid for by farmers. This strange argument that farmers are using this water foolishly is silly. The water would have just run out to sea years ago. Instead, it's been used growing these crops. Now the water is gone, these crops aren't planted. What's the problem with that?

But, the grapes still need water! From where I ask?

Cheers.

 

[skint]

Not sure what the Prof smoked for breakfast but here's the annual temps since 1910. Sorry, not sure how to turn the web address into a hyperlink.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20060104.shtml

How about that. It does it by itself!

 

[trading_rookie]

Thanks for the link skint.

Had a look at it - the graph 'Annual mean temp anomalies for Aus' and yeah it implies he was smoking something.

 

[Happy]

Cotton and rice need water to grow, but end product is quite dry.

All we have to do is find the way to capture that water and reuse.

That’s why -Sphere- project was so interesting, where community was sealed in water and air tight structure, where they had to produce own oxygen and food.

Maybe this is our future?

 

[The Once-ler]

As for grapes, i think you need to give us some facts on % of water used for irrigation of grapes, vs rice / cotton... I have a negative view of grape growing as well, but i need some facts as to how much water it takes from the murray darling basin in particular.

I don't have the figures. Grapes use less water than cotton/rice I believe. If you have a negative view on grapes too, what are you positive about?

This country has a big trade deficite. Irrigated crops are one of the few things we can still do to create something to trade with the rest of the world. Surely irrigated agriculture is better than just blowing up the dams, and letting the flood water run to the ocean.

The plain and simple fact is that the rivers would still be dry now, with or without irrigation.

I don't grow rice, cotton or grapes. I'm not a farmer but I know a few cotton growers. I'm just confused as to why some crops are to blame and not others. In reality, I think the only thing to blame is lack of rain.

The drought will soon be over and we will all wonder what the fuss was about. Until the next one that is.

Cheers.

 

[Rafa]

I don't have the figures. Grapes use less water than cotton/rice I believe. If you have a negative view on grapes too, what are you positive about?

This country has a big trade deficite. Irrigated crops are one of the few things we can still do to create something to trade with the rest of the world. Surely irrigated agriculture is better than just blowing up the dams, and letting the flood water run to the ocean.

The plain and simple fact is that the rivers would still be dry now, with or without irrigation.

I don't grow rice, cotton or grapes. I'm not a farmer but I know a few cotton growers. I'm just confused as to why some crops are to blame and not others. In reality, I think the only thing to blame is lack of rain.

The drought will soon be over and we will all wonder what the fuss was about. Until the next one that is.

Cheers.

Take it easy there mate, i'm postive about a lot of things...
there are plenty of crops suited to australian conditions, rice isn't one of them, neither is cotton. But whilst i can tolerate rice to some extent, Cotton and Grapes are both cash crops, and hence i don't consider them essential agriculture.

As i said in my post earlier if you bothered to read it, i agree that water flowing into the oceans is a waste... i'd rather they be stored in dams, aquifer's, whatever, for when the drought hits...

i am not blaming the rice farmers at present, becuase as things stand at the moment, there are not enough dams to store this water anyway.

the problem is infrastructure...
please read what i write before jumping around.