World food shortage

[numbercruncher]

Yeah, heard that interview Julia. He said we are keeping Mugabe in power by feeding the people.

And a lot of other places in Africa, the more food we send, the more kids they have.

The unsustainability of it all is rapidly coming to the surface, World Vision recently announced it can no longer afford to feed 1.5m of the 7.5m it fed last year.

The US provides about half the Worlds food Aid each year, as far as I can see the US can no longer afford it either.

Combined with draughts, dying crops , urbanisation , swelling populations etc its all going to end terribly im certain.

Even places like the UK are unsustainable I remember reading they can grow enough food to feed like no more than 40m, yet they have in excess of 60m.

Im thinking the age of cheap oil aloud humanity to reach this unsustainable population and as Oil vanishes over this century so will a large number of the population bubble.

 

[Aussiejeff]

The unsustainability of it all is rapidly coming to the surface, World Vision recently announced it can no longer afford to feed 1.5m of the 7.5m it fed last year.

The US provides about half the Worlds food Aid each year, as far as I can see the US can no longer afford it either.

Combined with draughts, dying crops , urbanisation , swelling populations etc its all going to end terribly im certain.

Even places like the UK are unsustainable I remember reading they can grow enough food to feed like no more than 40m, yet they have in excess of 60m.

Im thinking the age of cheap oil aloud humanity to reach this unsustainable population and as Oil vanishes over this century so will a large number of the population bubble.

Yep. *Cheap* oil (remember way back when - a year or two ago?) meant growing and transporting megatonnes of food from richer countries to poorer countries was a relatively easy equation to manage.

With the far higher price of oil now being rammed home as a prime factor in the cost of food production and transportation, there seems little hope in the foreseeable future for the burgeoning masses of poor in the world to be sustained.

 

[nioka]

Yep. *Cheap* oil (remember way back when - a year or two ago?) meant growing and transporting megatonnes of food from richer countries to poorer countries was a relatively easy equation to manage.

With the far higher price of oil now being rammed home as a prime factor in the cost of food production and transportation, there seems little hope in the foreseeable future for the burgeoning masses of poor in the world to be sustained.

It is time that aid was directed towards helping most of the countries produce more of their own food rather than send some food. The old saying "give a man a fish and you feed him for a day, teach a man how to fish and you feed him for life."

 

[doogie_goes_off]

I consider this a local problem. With the massive inflation on food, the best solution is to grow some food yourself, which allows a bit more export etc. The hypocracy I see at the local level is the best farming land for 20km where I live is now a high density housing development (100 mouths to feed!). The reality is that you could produce many tonnes of food of that meagre few hectares, but no one is planning at any government level for urban sprawl. In Tasmania the tree farms (no food value) are taking over from traditional agriculture, another oppotunity lost.

 

[Aussiejeff]

I consider this a local problem. With the massive inflation on food, the best solution is to grow some food yourself, which allows a bit more export etc. The hypocracy I see at the local level is the best farming land for 20km where I live is now a high density housing development (100 mouths to feed!). The reality is that you could produce many tonnes of food of that meagre few hectares, but no one is planning at any government level for urban sprawl. In Tasmania the tree farms (no food value) are taking over from traditional agriculture, another oppotunity lost.

Have you considered the now exorbitant cost of oil-based FERTILIZER and CHEMICALS that are widely used for intensive agriculture might just be playing a role in all this? I would bet that FAR less fertilizer and chemicals are needed to grow simple tree farms than to use the same land to produce a more complicated product like food!

Forget about this being just a problem for poor countries to solve. Even Australian farmers are giving up on more fertilizer/chemical intensive crops due to the massive hikes in cost as a result of the rise in price of oil.

AJ

 

[Smurf1976]

In Tasmania the tree farms (no food value) are taking over from traditional agriculture, another oppotunity lost.

That's largely the intended consequence of a number of state and federal political decisions made over the past quarter century. If you make a conscious decision to shift the economy towards primary forestry production whilst at the same time also deciding to protect 40% of the state's land mass then it's inevitable that you end up growing trees on much of the remaining land.

I won't start another debate here about conservation though I'll state my view that the whole thing is ultimately unsustainable once oil gets expensive.

 

[Aussiejeff]

That's largely the intended consequence of a number of state and federal political decisions made over the past quarter century. If you make a conscious decision to shift the economy towards primary forestry production whilst at the same time also deciding to protect 40% of the state's land mass then it's inevitable that you end up growing trees on much of the remaining land.

I won't start another debate here about conservation though I'll state my view that the whole thing is ultimately unsustainable once oil gets expensive.

Maybe oil is near expensive enough already to have reached that un-sustainable tipping point?

AJ

 

[treefrog]

summary following appears to be agreeing with a lot of what has been said here - from web site www.mercola.com

In the year 2007, wheat prices rose 77 percent and rice 16 percent. These were some of the sharpest price hikes ever. But this year the speed of change has accelerated even further. Since January 2008, the price of rice has soared just over 140 percent.
Says Josette Sheeran, head of the UN World Food Programme, “… This crisis is different. It is occurring in many countries simultaneously, the first time that has happened since the early 1970s. And it is affecting people not usually hit by famines.”
So what’s happening?
There’s a lot of talk about the rising demand for biofuel being the culprit, as more farmers are now growing biofuel products rather than food, spurred on by various governmental incentives. But that’s certainly not the one and only factor fueling this world-wide problem.
What has Caused This Burgeoning Food Crisis?
Other factors that have been pointed out, in various articles spread across the past weeks, include:
Improved financial situation of people in China and India has increased demand for western-style diets rich in grains, meat and dairy
Export quotas by large grain producers, coupled with panic-buying by grain importers
Trade imbalances among nations
Population growth, adding 78 million people per year
Global warming. Unfavorable climatic conditions in 2007 devastated crops in Australia and reduced harvest in other European countries. Southern Africa and the western U.S. have been plagued with severe drought.
Unsustainable use of land and water
Rising oil prices, as fossil fuels are needed throughout the agricultural process, from running tractors, to fertilizer production, to shipping
A few others, from non-traditional media outlets, bypass all these “excuses” and point the finger directly at the similarities between our current situation and previous man-made famines for the end purpose of mass genocide.
In January 2008, the BBC broadcast a segment in their “The Things We Forgot to Remember,” featuring Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen, among others, speaking about the 1943-1945 Bengal famine in which 6-7 million people perished when the price of rice doubled, and then finally quadrupled. However, that famine, as now, was not caused by a food deficit per say, but rather by the callous politics in the area at the time.
Personally, one of the things that bother me most after reading through multiple articles on this issue, are the frequent references to the need for “higher yield crops,” rather than the development of sustainable agriculture. Although the names of any particular biotech companies are never mentioned, it walks, talks and reeks like poorly cloaked Monsanto propaganda.

Monsanto’s Rich Harvest
Monsanto’s genetically altered seeds tripled their first-quarter earnings, from $90 million to $256 million, according to BusinessWeek in January 2008. Their GM seeds have been a prime beneficiary of the growing demand for food and alternative fuel sources.
I have a sinking feeling that Monsanto will eventually ride in like a knight in shining armor, offering to end the world-wide plight with its high-yield spawn – those one-time-use-only seeds with dubious genetic signatures that may or may not kill anything that’s left. They already began that project in mid-2007, with the Gates and Rockefeller foundations donating $150 million worth of GMO crops to “reform agriculture and end hunger in Africa.”
That would surely be one of the absolute worst case scenarios we could possibly face, as GM crops are bound to do far more harm than good, both to the biodiversity of the planet and your individual health, through the unchecked introduction of foreign genetic material and hardier pests

.

 

[numbercruncher]

Will be an Interesting article on 60m tonight about a parasite destroying bees and in tandem food crops via no pollination.

FRUIT and vegetable prices could skyrocket in the likely event that a parasite decimating bee populations overseas reaches Australia, experts warn.

Honey bees have a major role in pollinating Australian crops, including apples, pears, apricots, pumpkins, almonds, avocados and cherries.

But countries, including the US, the United Kingdom and New Zealand, are experiencing major crop losses as a mite kills off their commercial and wild bees.

If the parasite reaches Australia it has been estimated up to 9500 jobs and $877 million a year would be wiped off the horticultural industry, while consumers would lose $839m from higher fruit and vegetable prices

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21660605-421,00.html

 

[Smurf1976]

Will be an Interesting article on 60m tonight about a parasite destroying bees and in tandem food crops via no pollination.



http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21660605-421,00.html

No bees = no humans.

 

[numbercruncher]

No bees = no humans.

Yes totally amazing story !

This parasite is decimating Bee populations World wide and the only place it hasnt invaded is Australia.

They say if this parasite kills all the Bees, Humans are dead within 5 years !

Crop yields already effected by this, obviously part of the WOrld Food shortgae that hasnt got much publicity already.

If this Aussie Scientist fixes the problem he better get a Nobel prize!

 

[moXJO]

Yes totally amazing story !

This parasite is decimating Bee populations World wide and the only place it hasnt invaded is Australia.

They say if this parasite kills all the Bees, Humans are dead within 5 years !

Crop yields already effected by this, obviously part of the WOrld Food shortgae that hasnt got much publicity already.

If this Aussie Scientist fixes the problem he better get a Nobel prize!

I read somewhere that Australia only spends $50k on keeping the parasite out while NZ spends 750k on keeping it out of the south island. Sounds stupid when you think how much money this country wastes. This should be given priority and a whole lot of funding.This is not the issue to neglect.

 

[numbercruncher]

I read somewhere that Australia only spends $50k on keeping the parasite out while NZ spends 750k on keeping it out of the south island. Sounds stupid when you think how much money this country wastes. This should be given priority and a whole lot of funding.This is not the issue to neglect.

That is amazing, Infact seen as we are the only nation free of this parasite on the planet youd think other nations would be sending wads of cash to help fight the good fight !

They surely must have bee colonies as a safety measure on remote islands etc ?

 

[Smurf1976]

I read somewhere that Australia only spends $50k on keeping the parasite out while NZ spends 750k on keeping it out of the south island. Sounds stupid when you think how much money this country wastes. This should be given priority and a whole lot of funding.This is not the issue to neglect.

Given the seriousness of the issue - we're talking about outright extinction of humans - I'd say even 50% of GDP going into research wouldn't be overkill.

Terrorism, climate change, Iraq and all the rest are at best a distant threat compared to this one. Even peak oil won't matter if we all starve with the bees going.

 

[habs]

hasnt australia been exporting bees to america to keep up there supply? im sure i heard about this 6 months ago or so..

 

[moXJO]

hasnt australia been exporting bees to america to keep up there supply? im sure i heard about this 6 months ago or so..

It started in america in 1987- 1995 ,25% decline in managed hives and the virtual elimination of feral colonies.So its not new.Makes you wonder why not much has been mentioned about it? I think the asian bees are resistant to it not as good producers as the european bees though.

edit: ok 1904 they were first discovered in asia.

 

[2020hindsight]

numbercruncher, At the time of the previous discussion / previous thread about bees , there were no dead bees to be found. Is that still the case? (sorry missed last night's show)

PS as some cynic suggested (on celsias link below), the next step is to genetically engineer bees.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=169472&highlight=bees#post169472

PS .. As far as GM goes, Dawkins might be right - that it's technically and hypothetically sound - or rather that babies shouldn't be thrown out with the bathwater - just that I don't trust Monsanto as far as I can kick em.

btw, this post by Uncle Festivus , #1 from the "No Bees No Food" thread (last year)

I don't know where this is heading but by all accounts it could be serious.
Bee populations in Europe & America are coming under atack by a mystery illness. As bees are needed to pollinate food crops, it is shaping up to be a big threat to the world economy, and has a lot of people worried.

http://www.celsias.com/blog/2007/03/29/european-bees-taking-a-nosedive/

http://maarec.cas.psu.edu/ColonyCollapseDisorderInfo.html#press

 

[Aussiejeff]

Given the seriousness of the issue - we're talking about outright extinction of humans - I'd say even 50% of GDP going into research wouldn't be overkill.

Terrorism, climate change, Iraq and all the rest are at best a distant threat compared to this one. Even peak oil won't matter if we all starve with the bees going.

No problem! Us modern day humans are *S.M.A.R.T.*. Forget the genetically modified bees.... we'll simply design computerised Nano-Bees (TM) from the ground up, to replace those dumb critters that silly Mother Nature coughed up!

See? No problem at all!




AJ

 

[Aussiejeff]

I have a feeling that those in positions of immense wealth and power around the planet would be in a state of denial regarding what they would probably see as a *ludicrous* proposition that a tiny bee could bring about the downfall of civilisation as we know it!

That could explain why there seems to be a relatively deafening silence regarding the subject coming from the media in general and these *powerful* groups.


AJ

 

[numbercruncher]

numbercruncher, At the time of the previous discussion / previous thread about bees , there were no dead bees to be found. Is that still the case?

Hmm I think they are finding dead bees, they showed in the Beehive the parasite killing baby bees (lavae ?)

They showed the parasite sitting in the Hive and a bee walked over it, it then vanished and was on the Bees back about to start its tick like work of sucking out the bees blood, which then infects it with parasites that kill.

If this Aussie scientist is the only one working on a solution he should be under 24 hour armed guard, imagine if something happened to him ! Im sure his work is well documented, but I find it hard to fathom one person has been left with such an important task - surely others around the globe must be working on it ?