Who thinks there will be a slump?

[Glen48]

See the editorial under the last picture. That says it all!

The Emma Maersk, part of a Danish shipping line, is shown in the photos below.






What a ship....no wonder 'Made in China ' is displacing North American made goods big time.
This monster transports goods across the Pacific in just 5 days!!
This is one of three ships presently in service, with another two ships commissioned
to be completed in 2012.







These ships were commissioned by Wal-Mart to get all their
goods and stuff from China ... They hold an incredible 15,000
containers and have a 207 foot deck beam!! The full crew is just
13 people on a ship longer than a US Aircraft Carrier (which has a
crew of 5,000. With its 207' beam it is too big to fit through the
Panama or Suez Canals ...




It is strictly Transpacific. Cruise speed: 31 knots.

The goods arrive 4 days before the typical container ship (18-20
knots) on a China-to-California run. 91% of Wal-Mart products are
made in China. So this behemoth is hugely competitive even
when carrying perishable goods.




The ship was built in five sections. The sections floated
together and then welded.



The command bridge is higher than a 10-story building and has
11 cargo crane rigs that can operate simultaneously unloading
the entire ship in less than two hours.






Additional info:

Country of origin - Denmark
Length - 1,302 ft
Width - 207 ft
Net cargo - 123,200 tons
Engine - 14 cylinders in-line diesel engine (110,000 BHP)
Cruise Speed - 31 knots



Cargo capacity - 15,000 TEU (1 TEU = 20 cubic feet)
Crew - 13 people !
First Trip - Sept. 08, 2006
Construction cost - US $145,000,000+

Silicone painting applied to the ship bottom reduces water
resistance and saves 317,000 gallons of diesel per year.

















Editorial Comment!


A recent documentary in late March, 2010 on the History
Channel noted that all of these containers are shipped back to
China , EMPTY. Yep, that's right.
We send nothing back on these ships.
What does that tell you
about the current financial state of this country?
So folks, just keep on buying those imported goods (mostly gadgets) until you run out
of money. Then you may wonder what the cause of unemployment
(maybe even your job) in the U.S.. and Canada and even in Australia might be????

Enough said!!!

Soon to worth $1.20 a KG?

 

[sptrawler]

Editorial Comment!


A recent documentary in late March, 2010 on the History
Channel noted that all of these containers are shipped back to
China , EMPTY. Yep, that's right.
We send nothing back on these ships.
What does that tell you
about the current financial state of this country?
So folks, just keep on buying those imported goods (mostly gadgets) until you run out
of money. Then you may wonder what the cause of unemployment
(maybe even your job) in the U.S.. and Canada and even in Australia might be????

Enough said!!!

Soon to worth $1.20 a KG?

Good pick up Glen, like we have said earlier, it is exactly what happened to British manufacturing in the 1960's. Due on that occassion to the industrialisation of Japan.
The U.S has a lot of adjusting to do.

 

[Glen48]

Guess it depends on will we have a depression or not .. most think no because it means they don't have to worry the feds will look after them ...but what IF???
This is just another case of bad management and greed

 

[IFocus]

Guys this is the biggy

German bond market

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-27/talking-point/3697676?section=business

 

[Glen48]

Car sales in USA are up 6% because they count the amount of cars leaving he factories.
Cars yard now hold 15% more cars.

 

[VSntchr]

Some very interesting stuff in here guys, keep it up!

That ship is almost beyond belief!!

 

[sptrawler]

Car sales in USA are up 6% because they count the amount of cars leaving he factories.
Cars yard now hold 15% more cars.

Have you seen the prices they are flogging off Jeep Grand Cherokees for, state of the art 3litre diesel with air suspension and as much fruit as a $80,000 Prado.
On the road, drive away for less than $60,000.
That is with a 175Kw 550Nm diesel as opposed to the Prado 128Kw 400Nm.
The yanks are definately sh!!!ting themselves, I think it is a bit like the poms. Too little too late, the horse has bolted.
But there should be some great buying on all fronts as this plays out.

 

[sptrawler]

The other thing that should be interesting is what happens to interest rates on deposits, as inter bank lending freezes.
This is the reason the government is sh!!!!ting itself and trying to get its books in order, they can't back up the banks if they are in debt.
Especialy when they were in surplus 4 years ago, we are only a China hickup away from having difficulty sourcing overseas funding.IMO

 

[Julia]

The other thing that should be interesting is what happens to interest rates on deposits, as inter bank lending freezes.
This is the reason the government is sh!!!!ting itself and trying to get its books in order, they can't back up the banks if they are in debt.
Especialy when they were in surplus 4 years ago, we are only a China hickup away from having difficulty sourcing overseas funding.IMO

Good to see one person at least is recognising this. The banks have been very complacent recently on the basis of their increased local deposits. Let's see how that complacency goes if there's a global credit squeeze.

 

[drsmith]

Guys this is the biggy

German bond market

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-27/talking-point/3697676?section=business

That's a few days old, so at least partially digested by markets.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...rope-debt-crisis/story-e6frg916-1226204294573

Ted Spread though is inching up, but no where near the catasthropic levels of late 2008, as yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There is only one statistic against a slump occurring and that is that every man and his dog is predicting one. Goyles too.

Usually when the herd is at its gloomiest, a pickup occurs.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

Good to see one person at least is recognising this. The banks have been very complacent recently on the basis of their increased local deposits. Let's see how that complacency goes if there's a global credit squeeze.

Yes people aren't realising the mining "boom" is all that is keeping us from being in the same basket as other countries with deficits and having trouble sourcing funds.
The goon show over the last four years has squandered our surplus and now has to ramp taxes to pay for their incompetence. Then have audacity to say they have steered us through with fiscal management.
If people swallow that they deserve all they get, anyway off subject a bit, sorry.
If China reduces intake of our commodities, with the gearing of our junior mining sector, sh!!!ts are trumps.

 

[Glen48]

The cash for clunkers would have push car sales up, trouble is the clunkers had to have the engine destroyed by starting it and tipping Aluminium Oxide into it which seized every things , trouble is no car wreckers would buy them because the engine was the main source of cash for them.

One in two home owners are under water in USA and the market is still tanking.

 

[Glen48]

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/
The ship is now off the coast of Africa so much for direct to USA???

 

[Smurf1976]

The cash for clunkers would have push car sales up, trouble is the clunkers had to have the engine destroyed by starting it and tipping Aluminium Oxide into it which seized every things , trouble is no car wreckers would buy them because the engine was the main source of cash for them.

A classic example of wealth destruction dressed up to look like something good.

Economically - why destroy something that is functional and has value.

Environmentally - the energy required to build a new car makes the whole "cash for clunkers" concept nothing more than a sad joke. Keeping existing cars running for the duration of their useful life makes far more environmental sense in most cases.

 

[young-gun]

There is only one statistic against a slump occurring and that is that every man and his dog is predicting one. Goyles too.

Usually when the herd is at its gloomiest, a pickup occurs.

gg

if by herd you mean ASF users?

most are completely oblivious to economic situations and news.

there is obviously plenty of investors out there(not to mention countless economists and forecasters) that think things are gonna be all-right here in good ol' aus(and the world), why else would you still have money in the market (long)

i agree with you in that when the crash happens it will come when everyone least suspects it, im failing to see when that time would arise at the moment though.

 

[Glen48]

We should change the topic to Who knows there will be a slump/depression.
I give it 3 months

 

[explod]

We should change the topic to Who knows there will be a slump/depression.
I give it 3 months

I think we are there, what about "The Slump, how bad will it become"

 

[Bill M]

there is obviously plenty of investors out there(not to mention countless economists and forecasters) that think things are gonna be all-right here in good ol' aus(and the world), why else would you still have money in the market (long)

Hey young-gun there are reasons for everything. I subscribe to many investment newsletters and broker reports. Roughly about 70% of these reports suggest the markets are going down and that Europe's and USA's debt problems will signal long term pain for eveybody. The other 30% are quite the opposite, some citing that this is the time to be buying Aussie stocks. P/E's and dividends have never been so good and that they are sustainable, they say.

For me as a lifetime investor (NOT TRADER) have been through a few booms and busts, this one is no different. I am of the firm belief that buying good companies that pay good dividends when everyone else is heading for the exit doors (or margin calls) is a good idea. I have bought quite a lot of double digit dividend paying companies lately and all I care about is how hard my cash will work for me. Right now I have a portfolio that pays me 7% dividends (mostly franked), why on earth would I sell that to get 6% in a bank account and then pay TAX? To me it would be a backward step and on any market dips like last week I tend to buy more stock and go long. I have have no interest in short term fluctuations it's the rest of my life and the income I need that matters. I hope that clarifys why some people are long. I might add if the market does crash to 3100 on the all ords (like the 70% suggest) then I will be buying like there is no tomorrow, to me it will be the second best chance in a lifetime, cheers.

 

[Julia]

Hello Bill

So you don't mind seeing your capital investment diminishing?
You don't consider it could be worthwhile to lock in your profits, sit aside in cash (8% available a couple of years ago), and buy back in after the falls?

I listened to an interesting discussion on ABC Radio last evening where one of the few people who accurately predicted and timed the GFC (he went totally to cash before it set in) and has also accurately forecast events since then, has suggested we could see the ASX go to 1000 points and that the bottom will not occur until around 2016.

He might be quite wrong. But his track record so far and his background experience suggests it's worth listening to what he says.

I'm not at all trying to change your point of view. I just don't especially agree with it when opportunity cost is taken into consideration.

If you have, say, $500,000 in capital investment, and that falls to less than half, is your dividend yield/franking actually going to make up the difference?