Where will the All Ords end up after this bull market ends?

[>Apocalypto<]

Hey members I was just looking at the chart of this wonderful bull run and I started thinking how far back down could it go? (I know zero, to all the smart asses)

Please all, take a stab guessed or other, all welcome!

 

[jemma]

Re: Where will the ALL ORDS end up after this bull market breaks?

Back to 5200 that is a key support level.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: Where will the All Ords end up after this bull market breaks?

Hey members I was just looking at the chart of this wonderful bull run and I started thinking how far back down could it go? (I know zero, to all the smart asses)

Please all, take a stab guessed or other, all welcome!

Dear TI,

Fibonacci retracements give a reasonable idea of where the market may retreat in a reversal or crash. Lets retrace from today to 480 in 1982. Before rising the XAO had spent some years at this level.
A 50% retracement would bring us back to 3142, the XAO spent 4 years around about this level between 1999 and 2003 so it is a good support in a crash. and that was only 4 years ago.
Being more optimistic a 23.6% or 38.2% retracement would bring us to 4600 and 3800 respectively.
Now if you want to be very pessimistic a 61.8% retracement would bring us to 2500, a nice number at which a crash might pause, and at which the XAO spent nuch of 1996 and 1997,

Garpal

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: Where will the All Ords end up after this bull market breaks?

Guys don't take this so seriously its a bit of good fun i just want to see how bearish we all are deep in the back of our minds!


I think 3500 or round abouts is possible

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: Where will the All Ords end up after this bull market breaks?

Guys don't take this so seriously its a bit of good fun i just want to see how bearish we all are deep in the back of our minds!


I think 3500 or round abouts is possible

Dear TI,

Don't apologise TI. This is quite a serious post believe it or not. Go to your local florist and price a tulip. Then google Tulips Market Madness. Compare the prices at the peak of the tulip madness to now.The price of an asset is determined by the interaction between buyers and sellers. Presently our good fortune in Australia is due to the Chinese economy. There is no guarantee that this will continue, although it appears likely. all markets retrace eventually. You may be correct, 3500 is a nice number, markets often pause at round numbers.

Garpal

 

[tech/a]

Re: Where will the All Ords end up after this bull market breaks?

Guys don't take this so seriously its a bit of good fun i just want to see how bearish we all are deep in the back of our minds!


I think 3500 or round abouts is possible

So's 10000

 

[ROE]

5000 or 4500

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: Where will the All Ords end up after this bull market breaks?

So's 10000

So are you bullish on this market, Tech, a turtle, or was it a throw away remark?

Garpal

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: Where will the All Ords end up after this bull market breaks?

Dear TI,

Don't apologise TI. This is quite a serious post believe it or not. Go to your local florist and price a tulip. Then google Tulips Market Madness. Compare the prices at the peak of the tulip madness to now.The price of an asset is determined by the interaction between buyers and sellers. Presently our good fortune in Australia is due to the Chinese economy. There is no guarantee that this will continue, although it appears likely. all markets retrace eventually. You may be correct, 3500 is a nice number, markets often pause at round numbers.

Garpal

Garpal,

Great to see someone that has my thinking I also believe China is major factor in our recored breaking run and i tell a lot of people that the world will be a different place if china's growth and demand halves!

I picked 3500 or around there as that was the break out point and every thing above that has no foundation but air! but it could find a bottom any where on the way down.

great to see this is a valued topic!

 

[nizar]

Wouldnt the all ords end up higher after a bullmarket ends?

Isnt the end of a bullmarket a peak??

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: Where will the All Ords end up after this bull market breaks?

So's 10000

wow that is a scary thought!

if that happens i will be trading futures for a living!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Wouldnt the all ords end up higher after a bullmarket ends?

Isnt the end of a bullmarket a peak??

Yes it would end at its highest peak but that would only be its peak if it never went back above that price so if it is making lower highs and lower lows that tells you it's in a bearish move.

hope that helps Nizar

 

[dodgers]

A slight digression... if as some think we're currently approaching the top of wave 3 and therefore soon a fourth wave correction, before resuming the uptrend into a fifth and final wave for this bull market - where do you think the peak will be at the top of wave 5??

 

[Bush Trader]

A slight digression... if as some think we're currently approaching the top of wave 3 and therefore soon a fourth wave correction, before resuming the uptrend into a fifth and final wave for this bull market - where do you think the peak will be at the top of wave 5??

Can you show us a hard copy of your chart please, with the wave counts?

Thanks & Cheers in advance

 

[dodgers]

Sorry I don't have a chart, just read the below tech analysis from a major broking house recently..

Given the continued uptrend over recent weeks it is likely that wave 3 within the sequence from the 4758 June 2006 low is still unfolding. Structurally the third wave appears to be close to complete and is approaching important wave relationship resistance at 5905 where wave 3 equals 2.618 the length of wave 1. This is a likely place for a fourth wave correction to occur from. Weakness through support at 5760 needs to occur to provide an initial indication that the market has begun a fourth wave retreat, with downside risk then to the 5285 to 5489 region (fourth wave of lesser degree range) before uptrend resumption for a final fifth wave.

See also my comment on the XAO thread..

 

[>Apocalypto<]

A slight digression... if as some think we're currently approaching the top of wave 3 and therefore soon a fourth wave correction, before resuming the uptrend into a fifth and final wave for this bull market - where do you think the peak will be at the top of wave 5??

Dodgers I am not trying to be a smart ass here but I can not see any stage three on the monthly chart of the xao I can still see a strong stage two!

But please correct me if i am wrong, am I missing something from your analysis please let me know if i am.

i have attached the monthly xao chart and the short term lines are for the daliy time frame that's why they are all out of whack!

 

[dodgers]

Hi TI, yeah I figured out what this broker meant with the help of edwood and my post was a little misleading. I think we're close to the top of wave 3 in the current uptrend beginning after the May 06 high. i.e. wave 1 was somewhere around the 5100 mark. I'm not a chartist though so let me know if you think I'm wrong.

what wave would you say we are in the context of this bull mkt as a whole, by stage 2 do you mean the top of the second wave (isn't this called wave 3?)

cheers
dodgers

 

[pacer]

what happens to our baby stocks during a crash?.....I think the october crashes are a thing of the past...be ready....IMO...DYOR

 

[So_Cynical]

Guys don't take this so seriously its a bit of good fun i just want to see how bearish we all are deep in the back of our minds!


I think 3500 or round abouts is possible

Apocalypto was the only poster to come close...2007 seems so long ago, and the bottom was 2 years after this thread.