Where are all the bears now?

Uncle Festivus · 30 May 2013

Interesting......

Banks bubble busted.

Continuing the global banking scam of 'profits' by cutting costs and eliminating loan loss provisions coz all is good again......

Official statistics show banks, credit unions and building societies have grown profits, but mostly due to cutting costs.

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's (APRA) quarterly statistics show authorised deposit taking institutions (ADIs) posted profits of $7.1 billion for the March quarter.

That was a 2.7 per cent increase on the December quarter that preceded it, and a 30.4 per cent jump on last year's March quarter.

ADI profits for the year to March were $26.55 billion, up only slightly from the 12 months to March 2012 where they recorded a combined net profit of $26.49 billion.

However, APRA's report shows the jump in profit was not all good news for the banking sector - banks only recorded a 0.1 per cent rise in net interest income between the December and March quarters.

Other operating income actually fell $293 million.

white_goodman · 31 May 2013

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/349636/low-interest-rate-blues-david-beckworth

what low interest rates mean, what it indicates etc..

Uncle Festivus · 11 June 2013

Even the bankers advisers have a few concerns about QE and it's effect on creating unsustainable bubbles, and the consequences of it's withdrawal in a few [SUP]years[/SUP] time?

Makes it a bit harder for those who think QE has no effect on equity prices to justify their position?

Members of the Federal Reserve’s advisory council, which includes the Board of Governors, have expressed strong concerns over the Fed’s low-interest rate policies and its bond-purchase program, which they say could trigger unmanageable inflation and an "unsustainable bubble" in the stock and bond markets.

Some members also expressed anxiety over the recent surge in markets stating that the equity and fixed-income markets are bloated.

The strongly worded sentiments expressed in the minutes clearly suggest that overvalued markets could come down to more realistic levels when the Fed stops its quantitative easing program.

And then this -

Uncertainty exists about how markets will reestablish normal valuations when the Fed withdraws from the market.
It will likely be difficult to unwind policy accommodation,
and the end of monetary easing may be painful for consumers and businesses,” the minutes stated.

Given the Fed’s balance sheet increase of approximately $2.5 trillion since 2008, the Fed may now be perceived as integral to the housing finance system.

http://www.ibtimes.com/federal-rese...ion-unsustainable-bubble-stocks-bonds-1287261

http://federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac-20130517.pdf

How is our sustainable bull going?

white_goodman · 11 June 2013

Uncle Festivus said:
Even the bankers advisers have a few concerns about QE and it's effect on creating unsustainable bubbles, and the consequences of it's withdrawal in a few [SUP]years[/SUP] time?

Makes it a bit harder for those who think QE has no effect on equity prices to justify their position?

Members of the Federal Reserve’s advisory council, which includes the Board of Governors, have expressed strong concerns over the Fed’s low-interest rate policies and its bond-purchase program, which they say could trigger unmanageable inflation and an "unsustainable bubble" in the stock and bond markets.

Some members also expressed anxiety over the recent surge in markets stating that the equity and fixed-income markets are bloated.

The strongly worded sentiments expressed in the minutes clearly suggest that overvalued markets could come down to more realistic levels when the Fed stops its quantitative easing program.

And then this -

Uncertainty exists about how markets will reestablish normal valuations when the Fed withdraws from the market.

It will likely be difficult to unwind policy accommodation,

and the end of monetary easing may be painful for consumers and businesses,” the minutes stated.

Given the Fed’s balance sheet increase of approximately $2.5 trillion since 2008, the Fed may now be perceived as integral to the housing finance system.

http://www.ibtimes.com/federal-rese...ion-unsustainable-bubble-stocks-bonds-1287261

http://federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac-20130517.pdf

How is our sustainable bull going?

View attachment 52742

where is inflation a problem?

FxTrader · 11 June 2013

white_goodman said:
where is inflation a problem?

You mean real inflation or the illusion portrayed by official government stats the way they are calculated now?

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

banco · 11 June 2013

FxTrader said:
You mean real inflation or the illusion portrayed by official government stats the way they are calculated now?

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

You'll notice those charts basically shadow each other so if you use either/or inflation is still at historical lows.

FxTrader · 11 June 2013

banco said:
You'll notice those charts basically shadow each other so if you use either/or inflation is still at historical lows.

What?? Perhaps you're not looking at the scale. Depending on the calculation method there is a variance of 4 to 8%. There is a huge difference between 1% vs 5% or, using the 1980 based formula, 1% vs 9%. Historic lows of 9% real inflation, that's wonderful news!

The Fed is actually trying to create inflation and succeeding by any genuine measure.

FlyingFox · 11 June 2013

banco said:
You'll notice those charts basically shadow each other so if you use either/or inflation is still at historical lows.

The methods for computing and the composition of basket of goods change over time. Therefore it's not a clear comparison when comparing to historical numbers.

FxTrader · 11 June 2013

Uncle Festivus said:
Even the bankers advisers have a few concerns about QE and it's effect on creating unsustainable bubbles, and the consequences of it's withdrawal in a few [SUP]years[/SUP] time?

Makes it a bit harder for those who think QE has no effect on equity prices to justify their position?

Members of the Federal Reserve’s advisory council, which includes the Board of Governors, have expressed strong concerns over the Fed’s low-interest rate policies and its bond-purchase program, which they say could trigger unmanageable inflation and an "unsustainable bubble" in the stock and bond markets.

It's truly interesting when the Fed's advisory council drops a bombshell like this. It's likely a very reluctant admission they are concerned that the great bond market manipulation experiment called QE may blow up and cause serious problems for the US economy. But without this admission they would look like total fools if this came to pass without a forecast from them warning of just such an outcome.

chops_a_must · 11 June 2013

The bears are definitely out of hibernation!

DB008 · 11 June 2013

chops_a_must said:
The bears are definitely out of hibernation!

Sell in May and Go-away?

banco · 11 June 2013

FlyingFox said:
The methods for computing and the composition of basket of goods change over time. Therefore it's not a clear comparison when comparing to historical numbers.

Yes but the trends track each other (ie they both decline and go up by a very similar %) and if you look at a long term chart of either measure you can see that compared to the peaks and troughs of the past we are in a shallow trough.

FxTrader · 11 June 2013

banco said:
Yes but the trends track each other (ie they both decline and go up by a very similar %) and if you look at a long term chart of either measure you can see that compared to the peaks and troughs of the past we are in a shallow trough.

The point is the real rate of inflation is much higher than reported by government stats. How well the trends match is of little relevance to consumers contending with higher real inflation.

Tyler Durden · 20 June 2013

The bears can come out and play now

Aussiejeff · 21 June 2013

Tyler Durden said:
The bears can come out and play now

*Y-a-w-w-n-n-n.................*

*Zzzzzz.....zzzzz.......zz........*

Uncle Festivus · 21 June 2013

Why the Fed would like to taper but can't?

Home loan rates going up - retail more likely above 4.5%

The Fed is the market now?

No taper here?

The great housing recovery - construction jobs are now back to 1997 levels.....

FxTrader · 21 June 2013

Uncle Festivus said:
The Fed is the market now?

The market manipulation by the Fed with QEx has been sustaining the current bull market in equities for some time now. Any hint of a pull back of Fed heroin causes these overextended/overvalued markets to lurch downward.

QE must be maintained for a lengthy period and will be given helicopter Ben's likely successor. I expect the markets will correct another few percentage points before a strong rebound. Buying opportunities are starting to emerge again.

MrBurns · 21 June 2013

FxTrader said:
The market manipulation by the Fed with QEx has been sustaining the current bull market in equities for some time now. Any hint of a pull back of Fed heroin causes these overextended/overvalued markets to lurch downward.

QE must be maintained for a lengthy period and will be given helicopter Ben's likely successor. I expect the markets will correct another few percentage points before a strong rebound. Buying opportunities are starting to emerge again.

Strong rebound ?
On what basis ?

Are these stocks oversold or just adjusting to a new environment = no rebound.

FxTrader · 21 June 2013

MrBurns said:
Strong rebound ?
On what basis ?.

When it becomes clear that "tapering", if it occurs at all this year or next, will likely be quite small in pace and scale. Only a small decrease in the QEx heroin dose, hence I think the market will rebound. Just my reading of the signals coming from helicopter Ben.

MrBurns · 21 June 2013

FxTrader said:
When it becomes clear that "tapering", if it occurs at all this year or next, will likely be quite small in pace and scale. Only a small decrease in the QEx heroin dose, hence I think the market will rebound. Just my reading of the signals coming from helicopter Ben.

Well yes you're probably right there, it's the timing of the rebound that will be interesting.

Where are all the bears now?

Uncle Festivus

white_goodman

BOC

Uncle Festivus

white_goodman

BOC

FxTrader

banco

FxTrader

FlyingFox

FxTrader

chops_a_must

Printing My Own Money

DB008

banco

FxTrader

Tyler Durden

Aussiejeff

Uncle Festivus

FxTrader

MrBurns

FxTrader

MrBurns

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