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100 x ProShares Short S&P500 (NYSE:SH)
I know it isn't much, but it's a start.
Taking notice of an opportunity to profit at least partially from what is likely to be a moderately strong downward trend in the market. Did this in early November, initially I saw a small gain over a couple of weeks, but since then it's been struggling below break even. I'm sure that is temporary though, as I'll discuss below.
Compared to the overproof rum that is put options on SPY this SH ETF looks more like a dessert wine, not nearly as potent in terms of what you may profit out of it, but likewise not nearly as brutal as options if the market does turn against you, as it has done to me in the past 2 months.
Fortunately, it looks as though this so-called "bull" market is about to change, with China advertising the fact that she's increased her interest rates another 0.25% within a short 3 months for a total increase of 0.5% over that period. This should put a bit of pain on the longs. In spite of China's previous 0.25% hike, commodity prices still kept soaring, so that should be kept in mind. An interest rate hike is a sure sign of inflationary pressure, so perhaps going long on commodities would be a gamble worth taking, provided you have iron clad stop losses.
That, along with more revelations by Wikileaks about some large US banks, I'd say this is just about as good as the "bull" market is going to get before we get another downturn. At least in stocks. Commodities, except for oil, have been cooling off somewhat, but may resume an uptrend if investors are not too spooked by China's latest movements.
Overall, going by what the contrarians say (my favorites are Prechter, Shepherd, and Kaplan), I expect that 2011 will be like 2008. It may seem rosy during the 1st half, with huge currency FX volatility, ESPECIALLY with the AUD and EUR, but once the 2nd half comes along, watch out!
I know it isn't much, but it's a start.
Taking notice of an opportunity to profit at least partially from what is likely to be a moderately strong downward trend in the market. Did this in early November, initially I saw a small gain over a couple of weeks, but since then it's been struggling below break even. I'm sure that is temporary though, as I'll discuss below.
Compared to the overproof rum that is put options on SPY this SH ETF looks more like a dessert wine, not nearly as potent in terms of what you may profit out of it, but likewise not nearly as brutal as options if the market does turn against you, as it has done to me in the past 2 months.
Fortunately, it looks as though this so-called "bull" market is about to change, with China advertising the fact that she's increased her interest rates another 0.25% within a short 3 months for a total increase of 0.5% over that period. This should put a bit of pain on the longs. In spite of China's previous 0.25% hike, commodity prices still kept soaring, so that should be kept in mind. An interest rate hike is a sure sign of inflationary pressure, so perhaps going long on commodities would be a gamble worth taking, provided you have iron clad stop losses.
That, along with more revelations by Wikileaks about some large US banks, I'd say this is just about as good as the "bull" market is going to get before we get another downturn. At least in stocks. Commodities, except for oil, have been cooling off somewhat, but may resume an uptrend if investors are not too spooked by China's latest movements.
Overall, going by what the contrarians say (my favorites are Prechter, Shepherd, and Kaplan), I expect that 2011 will be like 2008. It may seem rosy during the 1st half, with huge currency FX volatility, ESPECIALLY with the AUD and EUR, but once the 2nd half comes along, watch out!