WDS - Woodside Energy Group

[markrmau]

WPL finished strongly on friday. On Monday I am going to dump my NWS which doesn't seem to be going anywhere and by more WPL.

 

[Bingo]

Re: wpl

WPL finished strongly on friday. On Monday I am going to dump my NWS which doesn't seem to be going anywhere and by more WPL.

I agree that WPL go from strength tom strength, however, it seems to me that the price of NWS may be week as the institutions are still reducing their holdings.

I suppose this is what makes a market, but, I am buying NWS on the expectation that the current weekness will be short lived.

Bingo

 

[markrmau]

Re: wpl

In 12months, I think NWS will be spinning of great wads of cash and will be worth close to 30 AUD. In the short term, with AUD going up, instos selling, maybe this weekness will continue.

On the otherhand, I can't work out why wpl went up so much. On another site, there is a suggestion that shell might be interested in having another tilt at wpl after Costello's wmc decission. I'm not convinced that shell would do this, despite shell having spare $$ lying around.

Should I stay on one train, wondering when it will leave the station, or dash madly from platform to platform chasing trains as they pull away?

 

[still_in_school]

Re: wpl

Hi Guys,

Currently also have a bullish view for WPL, and also did go long on Friday, though trading warrants, as they offered a T11 day settlement + the leverage effect, for technical profit targets.

In the Chart below WPL shows:

* A technical support at $20.30 (also a triple bottom, is appearing, though isn't quite clear on the chart)
* WPL is dancing along a primary long uptrend
* Symentrical Triangular Breakout
* Flag pattern appearing (and finishing on the triple bottom..) (possible technical breakout)
* Candlestick pattern is a Marubozu Candlestick (Bullish Candlestick indicator, the candlestick is showing no shadows as wicks, and the open is showing, a push in price, with a close of the highest price for the day.

Technical Targets are $21.29, as technical resistance, though a break or close above this technical resistance, would indicate a very bullish breakout...

Cheers,
sis

ps.. will add technical indicators, to show further bullishness...

 

[still_in_school]

Re: wpl

Hi Guys,

RSI - has been rangeing, and is in positive territory, showing a positive bounce.

MACD - turning positive and showing MA turning upwards, and about to cross.
Though Divergence is still negative

Stochastics - have turned positive, and have crossed.

** Though also, stochastics are commonly the first sign of a reversal, confirmed with candlesticks, then followed by other technical indicators secondly..

Cheers,
sis

ps.. please only take my technical analysis as a guide of predicted price and market movements.

 

[still_in_school]

Re: wpl

Hi Guys,

unfortunately, ive been exiting out of WPL this mornning, not because of the stock and its technicals, but due to its Warrant Spread..

Did end up getting a very high price, for about a third of my position, though the market makers.. had almost a ridiculous spread at one time of about 20 cents difference.

Im still bullish about WPL, though there seems to be some resistance at that $21.00 mark, though it got broken through today...

Anyway, i do believe they are having a report of earnings and the usual stuff.. coming out this thursday..

Will be looking to re-enter, though, most likely will be trading options instead.. due the wide spread.. (and to limit risk, than take on more risk)

Cheers,
sis

 

[markrmau]

Re: wpl

Buyers seem to be coming back into the market now - about 2.30pm.

If it finishes above 2095 I am hoping it will continue up tomorrow. As you say above 2100 would be very good sign.

 

[markrmau]

Re: wpl

Well I'm going to need a new set of undies. Nice recovery though.

I set myself a stop loss of $21.10, but the volume was so light by the time it got down near there that I didn't worry.

 

[Bin57again]

WPL - Head and shoulders formation

Hi
I'm a beginner and wondering whether WPL is starting to form a head and shoulders top.
Could any of the experts confirm or correct me please?
Apologies no chart but I'm sure you all have access anyway.
Thanks.

 

[RichKid]

Re: WPL - Head and shoulders formation

Hi
I'm a beginner and wondering whether WPL is starting to form a head and shoulders top.
Could any of the experts confirm or correct me please?
Apologies no chart but I'm sure you all have access anyway.
Thanks.

Hi Bin,
I'm not an expert but I've had a quick look at the chart out of curiosity, can't really see a H&S top atm, maybe I've missed it.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

WPL is only good if oil prices go up

once it goes down....

 

[doctorj]

Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

WPL is only good if oil prices go up

once it goes down....

I wholeheartedly disagree. Oil is at $60/barrel. Onshore oil costs about $10/bl to produce, a shallow offshore $16 and deep offshore about $22. This means WPL is pulling in, at the low end USD$38 per barrel profit. There reserves, in their own valuations are valued at AUD$5 per barrel. Even when discounting the cash flow for taxes, royalties and the time value of money and using the assumption that oil their oil is in deep offshore fields, you come up with a figure of USD$15.

Sure, oil prices may revert to the mean, but using AUD$5 in valuations works out to be an implied price of approx USD$34 per barrel. Hands up who thinks oil is going to go back down to those levels any time soon?

 

[Knobby22]

Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

I agree. It's a safe long term investment.

 

[RichKid]

Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

Saw this on another forum- I think it's so good I'm posting it here, I like non-conventional thinking, you can bet your bottom dollar the average punter will think the opposite.

http://www.energyreview.net
Monday, December 05, 2005

SLUGCATCHER'S Quiz Time.

You've got $10 billion to spare, three liquefied natural gas projects on the drawing boards, and each one will cost about $5 billion.

Do you:

(a) develop the one located 450km off the coast, in waters ranging from 90m to 550m deep, and in which you have a 33.44% interest or,

(b) develop the one 400km off the coast, in waters ranging from 400m to 800m deep, and in which you have a 50% interest or,

(c) develop the one 190km off the coast, in waters ranging from 80m to 175m deep, and in which you have a 100% interest.

The rules of the quiz are that you can only pick two, and those two must generate the maximum return to the shareholders.

For slow readers, and those lacking any business acumen, the answer is obvious; (b) and (c) are better investment options, and they are infinitely better when you consider another question: would you prefer your $10 billion to be sunk into the waters of a politically stable country with a strong rule of law.

By now, astute readers will have recognised that The Slug is not really running a quiz. This is a real life, real time, situation that involves Australia, East Timor and Woodside Petroleum, and it's one that burst back into life last week.

On Friday, the governments of the two countries announced that they had initialled a deal to divide the spoils from offshore oil and gas production, theoretically bringing to an end several years of tortuous talks over plans to develop the Sunrise LNG project in the Timor Sea.

The government chappies, apparently oblivious to events in the field, declared it a time for rejoicing. Australia's Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, even forecast that the deal could mean a windfall to East Timor of $14.5 billion over the next 20 years.

Sorry, Alexander, but that's just a little ambitious. For starters, there is no way any money is flowing to East Timor from Sunrise in the "next" few years. It's possible some time in the future that money will flow, but it will be an awful long time into the future.

The problem, which seems to have eluded politicians and civil servants on both sides of the Timor Trench, is that it is not in Woodside's best interest to rush the development of Sunrise.

While December 2 may be seen as a day to celebrate the reaching of an agreement on the Timor Sea oil and gasfields, a much more important day was March 29 – the day Woodside announced the discovery of the Pluto gasfield off the Western Australian coast.

It was on that day that Woodside said it had hit a 209m column of gas at Pluto, an event which changed everything in the life of East Timor, simply because Pluto is in relatively shallow water, it is relatively close to the coast, it is 100% in Australian waters, and it is 100% owned by Woodside.

For Woodside executives this is a no-brainer. Pluto is first cab off the LNG rank, followed by Browse, which is also in Australian waters, and is 50% owned by Woodside.

Sunrise, with a fiscal regime that is still not certain, partially in waters of a small and difficult country, has slipped way down the development schedule. It might even stay close to the bottom of the schedule because Woodside is still busily exploring its Australian acreage (and might find more gas), and East Timor continues to rabbit on about locating the proposed LNG plant on its shores.

For some strange reason, the chaps in Dili still seem to think that you can run a gas pipeline across a 3000m deep seabed trench.

The Slug puts this kind of thinking in the loopy category – and adds it to the pile of reasons as to why Woodside will not do much about Sunrise this year, or next, or the year after that.

In fact, nothing will happen until fiscal certainty is achieved (we're not there yet), silly talk about an LNG plant in East Timor disappears, and Woodside management has free time after developing Pluto and Browse – say, in about 10 to 15 years time.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

I wholeheartedly disagree. Oil is at $60/barrel. Onshore oil costs about $10/bl to produce, a shallow offshore $16 and deep offshore about $22. This means WPL is pulling in, at the low end USD$38 per barrel profit. There reserves, in their own valuations are valued at AUD$5 per barrel. Even when discounting the cash flow for taxes, royalties and the time value of money and using the assumption that oil their oil is in deep offshore fields, you come up with a figure of USD$15.

Sure, oil prices may revert to the mean, but using AUD$5 in valuations works out to be an implied price of approx USD$34 per barrel. Hands up who thinks oil is going to go back down to those levels any time soon?

Hi true long term its pretty good, but ill say maybe 10-20 yrs. IMO i think there will be yrs when prices will fall back down possibly <$50/Barrel which WPL may return negative for shareholders

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...wn-petrol-price/2005/11/18/1132016987201.html

 

[Ann]

..and a chart....

 

[lewstherin]

WPL copped a hammering today - dropped around 4.5%. Of course most of the oilers have taken 4-5% losses today.
I'm wondering whether any of the peeps here have got any kind of target buy price for WPL, and more importantly what reasoning they are using for that.

Personally I like WPL for a long term play, but felt the upper 40s was an over-pricing. With it skimming $41 today, I'm now re-examining the value proposition.

 

[Realist]

Personally I like WPL for a long term play, but felt the upper 40s was an over-pricing. With it skimming $41 today, I'm now re-examining the value proposition.

I do not believe there is any value in Woodside at all.


Sure a Hurricane could hit the States or a war starts in Iran, and the shares rocket upwards. But that is not value now - that is gambling on the future.

Woodside is tremendously overpriced atm, it's Australia's 8 largest company. Buy Westfield instead - Australia's 9th largest company.

The P/E rate is 1/4 of Woodside.

Longterm would you rather own some good oil fields or have the worlds foremost shopping malls?

Oil is in fashion now much like pink shirts were 2 years ago. The world is not short of oil and oil is overpriced as it is. It wont go up much more. Forget it!

 

[Sean K]

Realist,

Depends on your theory on oil.

Are there any other alternate energy sources to solve the worlds energy needs over the next 10 years?
Will the key oil producers keep providing oil unobstructed by political expedience?
Will the Middle East be at peace over the next 10 years?
Will America stop trying to influence the rest of the world, politically and economically?
Have there been any recent massive oil field discoveries?
Have resource companies invested enough in exploration?
Is there an infinite supply of oil trapped under the earths crust?

If your answer to most of the above is NO, then oil is probably going to go UP in cost, not down.

 

[lewstherin]

I have 2 reasons for considering Woodside at a $40-41 price.

1:
Personally I cannot see oil dropping below $60 any time soon due to the supply situation.
Unlike a metal like gold, people/countries cannot just stop using oil because they believe its overpriced; there just isnt enough in the alternative fuels pipeline to reduce the worlds oil dependancy for the next 10 years at least. And even if you believe there's plenty of oil under the ground, getting sufficient supplies above ground is an issue at present and will be going forward.
I have generally valued oilers based on an oil market price of $55-65/barrel given its volatility (I wouldn't be surprised to see oil drop to around $60-65 by August before climbing back up for the Northern winter). Any extra earnings on a price over $60 is bonus for me.

2:
Gas. Right now natural gas is probably near its lowest point in the annual demand cycle given that the North is having summer. When winter hits, I think gas could get a bit more pricy, but I need to research the D/S situation a bit more.
Beyond annual cycles, I think gas is increasingly becoming a stepping stone towards reducing oil dependancy for many countries. LPG is a viable fuel alternative and gas power plants have some advantages environmentally over coal. I think the developing countries - China and India - may well drive this demand as gas infrastructure becomes more prevalent there.

If anything Woodside has huge gas production prospects for the next 10 years, thanks to it being involved in some of the best gas fields on the planet.
Should the world go gas before getting onto alternative fuels, surely Woodside will be well positioned to provide to the associated growing demand?

I'm gonna have a crack tonight at doing a valuation based on WPL's oil & gas production forecasts going forward. That might help clarify things regarding a decent value for the shares.