WDS - Woodside Energy Group

[finicky]

Just noticed that it dropped even lower in the after market to finish on its low @ 31.21

 

[finicky]

Dear diary,

Yay! Today I got my top up of WDS @ $31
Now I am strongly considering a lie-in-wait bid of $6 to start a Santos (STO) investment and expand my fossil collection.

Held

 

[Ferret]

Well done you! I topped up yesterday at a higher price.

 

[eskys]

Who would have thought that POO was up last night?

 

[finicky]

Picked up 250 WDS @ 29.65
Outta control in the ASX casino.
Collect nice dividends while I wait to be proven right on 'fossil fuels resurgence' type concept.
Buying only about $3 above dr boursey boy's buy target so limited downside

Held

 

[Ferret]

Today I had another nibble at <$30 too.

 

[UMike]

Still got a big order @ $29.4.

But is this the bottom????

 

[finicky]

But is this the bottom????

I'm not seeing a lot of evidence for that so far in the weekly chart. Hopeful that a relief rally is close given the support in the area. It reached my target for a top up so not worried. I'm prompted by some compelling arguments made that the path to renewables will falter and eventually fail so fossil fuel companies should do well meeting demand after all the supply interference and underinvestment. Main sources Greg Canavan of fat tail advisory and Puplava of financialsense.com. Meanwhile WDS is tipped by Morningstar on CommSec to pay around 7% ff fy23, fy24 and around 5% fy25 (WDS financial years end Dec not June, final div in March). So theoretically paid to wait until profits and the share price respond to oil and gas demand/supply imbalance. Furthermore it is well below my estimate of intrinsic value for what that's worth, but also others' estimates. Not that that will rule out paper capital loss in the interim. I think I'll be holding fire before adding more and see if this level holds. It might be a rectangular consolidation before resuming the upward trend or the opposite - a distribution close to breaking support. No encouragement from candles or indicators that I can see, except for being oversold. Just my notions.

Held

WEEKLY

 

[Skate]

Still got a big order @ $29.4.

But is this the bottom????

Overnight trading NYSE

Skate.

 

[UMike]

Yea and with Oil down by over 3% i might lower expectations.

 

[divs4ever]

Yea and with Oil down by over 3% i might lower expectations.

have never been a huge fan of WDS ( or WPL ) but the BHP demerger added to the existing holding , so am looking with a heavily biased eye

but sub $25 ... gee i might throw in a cheeky order there

rampant manipulation in the oil prices currently , but who is brave enough to top up ??

 

[finicky]

12 month low today

 

[finicky]

Here's the Jim Puplava financialsense podcast that I found persuasive regarding oil/gas consumption, future prices and extraction companies; although it is U.S centric and obviously not about Woodside specifically. I tried to download the file to my tablet drive and then to post it directly but it won't comply. But if you tap the left side blue button saying 'download' you should be able to play the podcast and the relevant part starts at about 32.20.

Santa Claus Rotation Rally, Gold Surging, and Bargains in Energy

Dec 1, 2023 – Bruce Fraser at Wycoff Analytics joins Financial Sense Newshour to discuss the Santa Claus rotation rally. Next up, Dan Steffens at Energy Prospectus Group gives listeners an update on the energy space. Dan says...

www.financialsense.com

 

[finicky]

Small excerpt to give the vibe from Greg Canavan's fat tail investment advisory 14 Nov market and stocks update:

Buy the energy correction

The ASX200 energy index has corrected by around 13% in the past few months. That’s partly related to the correction in the oil price. Brent crude peaked in late September at around US$96.50 a barrel. It’s now around US$81.

But it’s not just about energy prices. Investors are worried that environmental activists will derail the growth plans of big players like Santos [ASX:STO] and Woodside Energy Group [ASX:WDS].

This is the irony of my bullish energy thesis. Activism puts future supply at risk. This in turn ensures prices stay high. But there are times when the market will panic about future growth projects and mark share prices down.

This is what the recent pullback in STO and WDs are all about.

The Federal Court suspended work on STO’s $5.3 billion gas project in 2022. The court ruled that STO failed to properly consult local indigenous groups. The ‘Environmental Defenders Office’ (yes, there is such a thing) recently won a temporary injunction to stop all work on the project.

At an investor day last week, Woodside boss Meg O’Neill conceded there were concerns about delays to its massive $16.5 billion Scarborough LNG project in Western Australia.

These are real concerns, to be sure.

But I think when push comes to shove, these projects go ahead. They will reap the rewards of higher prices down the track.

Woodside’s share price has declined nearly 20% since its August peak. By comparison, consensus earnings estimates for CY24 are down 11%.

At below $32, it’s below my estimate of long-term value.

So I’m moving Woodside from a hold to a buy. It has a December year-end. Based on 2024 consensus earnings estimates, WDS trades on a P/E multiple of 11.3 and a dividend yield of 6.75%.

 

[peter2]

More talk of possible merger between WDS and STO.
IMO environmental activism and our continued need for fossil fuels will force this compromise solution.

 

[finicky]

Rumours have circulated for days that oil and gas giants Santos and Woodside might consider merging.

The genesis of these murmurs is generally ascribed to frustrated investors. But there’s more to them than you might think.

In recent days, both organisations have been considering the implications and logistics of any such deal. We are not saying their discussions are definitive or have reached a conclusion. But the talks, already involving bankers and internal staff, are happening.

Though both companies, for what it’s worth, declined to comment on what they termed “market speculation”.

It is no secret that Santos is in play. Its share price has long been the cause of disappointment to both shareholders and management. Some stakeholders – specifically L1 Capital with support from Wilson Asset Management and Tribeca Investment Partners – have proposed splitting the liquefied natural gas assets from its conventional gas business.

Woodside and Santos exploring merger

Both organisations have been considering the implications and logistics of any such deal, but declined to comment on “speculation”.

www.afr.com

 

[Ferret]

One of my picks for the 2024 comp.

It may have been oversold when the oil price was falling.

Serious upside if things go pear shaped in the gulf.

Potential downside from the AUD rising against the USD and if they get overly generous in pursuing STO.

 

[UMike]

One of my picks for the 2024 comp.

It may have been oversold when the oil price was falling.

Serious upside if things go pear shaped in the gulf.

Potential downside from the AUD rising against the USD and if they get overly generous in pursuing STO.

Agree.
But expecting tough time in Aus so can't see the aussie $ gaining too much

 

[UMike]

 

[Ferret]

Not much happening with the oil price this month. No surprise Woodside also going nowhere.