Volume good, bad gut feeling (technical)

[skyQuake]

Glad there is enough brilliance scattered around this forum to recognise my own super duper brilliance

Yeah i'll jump on the bandwagon too. Quick theres only a few spots left!

At least the guy was asking for real advice rather than being swamped by a need for confirmation bias.

 

[tech/a]

If the brilliance wanes I'm sure you'll point it out T/H.

Just looking at the trade itself it appears that it was taken as a breakout trade and the stock is performing pretty well to script given the consequent price action since the breakout.

Its tested both the high on breakout and failed
and the low support of 70c is currently holding.
The selling of the last 4 days is now on very low volume.
trailing stop at 69 pretty obvious for agressive trading and
63c if you like floating in no mans land

 

[brty]

Glad there is enough brilliance scattered around this forum to recognise my own super duper brilliance

brty picks up poison chalice, and places it carefully down again.

Makes note to self, never be so agreeable

brty

 

[Riddick]

Hey you know I kinda wonder why you would be trying to play such short term trades if you are new to the markets. I have a few day trader/ short term trader friends and acquaintances and they have years of experience and they don't always make a great deal of money. The opposite can often be the case. I guess like most people I practice sound position sizing and MM strategies and thoroughly research every investment decision I make using a whole bunch of different indicators and fundamentals. Keeping in mind that technical analysis can in no way predict the future SP movement, only use past trends and current conditions to make predictions.
For example - if you bought $10 000 worth of FMG in the eighties it was worth 76 million fifteen years later (before being what it is now). technical analysis could not and would not have accurately predicted this. Lots of people made lots of money from this. It wasn't the 1- 3 day crew I'll bet.
I'm not convinced your strategy of making $$$ in equities encompasses enough ideas, options, study, information, if you tie yourself to a single methodology. Just my opinion.

 

[brty]

Riddick,

I'm not convinced your strategy of making $$$ in equities encompasses enough ideas, options, study, information, if you tie yourself to a single methodology.

I completely disagree. All you need is to get one little thingy/strategy correct, then rinse repeat.

I practice sound position sizing and MM strategies and thoroughly research every investment decision I make using a whole bunch of different indicators and fundamentals.

Using a whole bunch of different indicators and fundamentals sounds like a recipe for confusion to me.

if you bought $10 000 worth of FMG in the eighties it was worth 76 million fifteen years later (before being what it is now). technical analysis could not and would not have accurately predicted this. Lots of people made lots of money from this.

This type of statement beggars belief, how many penny dreadfulls would you have to hold from the '80's to now to get this type of benefit. How many would you have to have bought over the last 25 years that have subsequently gone bust or stayed as penny dreadfulls?? I would estimate hundreds, probably many hundreds.
Eventually all those little $10,000 investments start to add up to real money, what a naive statement.

brty

 

[Trembling Hand]

wonder how our friend with the bad gut feeling is going on his trade?

Still in? stop has been hit? Spewed it up with worry?

 

[Riddick]

Riddick,



I completely disagree. All you need is to get one little thingy/strategy correct, then rinse repeat.



Using a whole bunch of different indicators and fundamentals sounds like a recipe for confusion to me.



This type of statement beggars belief, how many penny dreadfulls would you have to hold from the '80's to now to get this type of benefit. How many would you have to have bought over the last 25 years that have subsequently gone bust or stayed as penny dreadfulls?? I would estimate hundreds, probably many hundreds.
Eventually all those little $10,000 investments start to add up to real money, what a naive statement.

brty

1. If the market were to stay the same indefinitely then you could use the same system ad nauseum and generate the same returns. Obviously the market does not stay the same, so the same strategy is not applicable in every situation. Add to the mix gov't regulations, growth of new industries, changes in technology and you need to change your approach, strategy and expectations. Obviously you are smarter than me as I like to incorporate new ideas, information and methodologies into my money making approach and evolve my knowledge in all associated areas. I don't have the luxury, obviously like yourself, of omnipotence and future sight to know my startegy is beyond reproach and will work forever with no change garaunteeing me everlasting success. How misguided I have been.

2. As you are aware there are different families of indicators. Does it not make PERFECT SENSE to correlate as many positive signals from as many different families of indicators before committing your hard earned cash? I obviously have this all wrong judging by your tone. I am sorry for being beneath you.

3. Some history for you. 12% of stocks on the australian market have returned 10 000% in their lifetime on the market. The quickest one of these took just 2 years. So that's 60 stocks from the top 500 companies. This point was to illustrate that somtimes doing APPROPRIATE research on fundamentals is BETTER than relying solely on technicla analysis. Afterall, as much as you would like to try and tell me otherwise, the previous performance of a stock in no way garauntees the future performance. Once again, sorry for being beneath you and BEGGARING your belief.

I would like to point out that your "estimate of hundreds" or "many hundreds" is completely incorrect, unfounded and it appears the statement was made out of either your personal ignorance of the history of the australian market, bias against anyone other than your own having a successful strategy, or perhaps you are still harbouring latent resentment from some unresolved bad financial deciaion you made somewhere in the past?

Oh wait.. that wouldn't have happened because you are so much better than me.

 

[Trembling Hand]

1. If the market were to stay the same indefinitely then you could use the same system ad nauseum and generate the same returns.

Essentially it does. You can argue about bull/bear and chop all you like but the more it changes ................

but then again if you say its always changing because of so many different events doesn't that make chasing the 10,000 bagger folly if your target is always shifting as you suggest?

2. As you are aware there are different families of indicators. Does it not make PERFECT SENSE to correlate as many positive signals from as many different families of indicators before committing your hard earned cash?

I would say NO, but I'm sure there are plenty here, including me, who like it to be shown otherwise. not in hindsight but real time. Would be great to see.

3. Some history for you. 12% of stocks on the australian market have returned 10 000% in their lifetime on the market........So that's 60 stocks from the top 500 companies.

may I suggest you first learn about survivorship bias. Unless you can teach us about how to pick the top 60 that make it into the top 500 from the bottom 20% of the market.

 

[Riddick]

Essentially it does. You can argue about bull/bear and chop all you like but the more it changes ................

but then again if you say its always changing because of so many different events doesn't that make chasing the 10,000 bagger folly if your target is always shifting as you suggest?

I would say NO, but I'm sure there are plenty here, including me, who like it to be shown otherwise. not in hindsight but real time. Would be great to see.

may I suggest you first learn about survivorship bias. Unless you can teach us about how to pick the top 60 that make it into the top 500 from the bottom 20% of the market.

I think you missed the point. If you make 9999% less than 10000% increase you still double your money.

Look to be honest I don't really care to add any more. Have fun on your high horses. Hope you don't fall off.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I think you missed the point. If you make 9999% less than 10000% increase you still double your money.

good one. and if you make 10001% less? lol

Look to be honest I don't really care to add any more. Have fun on your high horses. Hope you don't fall off.

figures. Most, including brty will offer enough to show they know what they are talking about. Some don't, as a consequence you're left feeling that they don't know what they are talking about and in fact have never been successful at it either.

giddy up.

 

[tech/a]

Correlation of as many indicators as you can find is just as futile as coming up with 50 ways of adding two numbers together to make 1000 you still arrive at the same destination PROVIDED you know how to interpret the numbers.
Frankly 2 numbers are sufficient you don't need any more----- if you get my drift

These guys aren't up themselves they simply KNOW how to profit from the markets and have seen 500 people all similar to you all with the same PERFECT logic.

In my view you have a basis from which to start from but certainly not a profitable theory----YET

 

[Ato]

Correlation of as many indicators as you can find is just as futile as coming up with 50 ways of adding two numbers together to make 1000 you still arrive at the same destination PROVIDED you know how to interpret the numbers.
Frankly 2 numbers are sufficient you don't need any more----- if you get my drift

These guys aren't up themselves they simply KNOW how to profit from the markets and have seen 500 people all similar to you all with the same PERFECT logic.

In my view you have a basis from which to start from but certainly not a profitable theory----YET

What Tech/a said.

 

[brty]

Riddick,

This was taken from the ASX web site

No. of Companies and securities listed on ASX

No. of Listed Companies & LMI's with tradeable equities
Month Domestic Foreign Total* All listed entities**
Jan-10 1959 84 2043 2180

Out of the total number of 2043 the top 500 make up the all ords index. Probably 95%+ of all trading happens in those stocks.

That leaves over 1500 'other' listed entities. To put $10,000 into each of these much smaller companies would cost you $15m. If you had that amount then this is not going to be the type of strategy one would undertake.
Every year many new issues come into the market, many also get dropped.

Here is a list of the latest inclusions into the ASX....

APOLLO GAS LIMITED AZO 15/12/2009 0.36 0.4 Add to watchlist
ASTIVITA RENEWABLES LIMITED AIR 16/12/2009 0.75 0.8 Add to watchlist
AUSGOLD LIMITED AUC 16/12/2009 0.235 0.22 Add to watchlist
AUSTRALIA MINERALS AND MINING GROUP LTD AKA 27/01/2010 0.22 0.205 Add to watchlist
AUSTRALIAN BAUXITE LIMITED ABZ 24/12/2009 0.255 0.31 Add to watchlist
DORAY MINERALS LIMITED DRM 08/02/2010 0.0 0.0 Add to watchlist
ELEMENTOS LIMITED ELT 23/12/2009 0.28 0.26 Add to watchlist
ENERGIA MINERALS LIMITED EMX 24/12/2009 0.23 0.22 Add to watchlist
GASCOYNE RESOURCES LIMITED GCY 11/12/2009 0.18 0.19 Add to watchlist
GENERAL MINING CORPORATION LIMITED GMM 21/12/2009 0.17 0.175 Add to watchlist
ISHINE INTERNATIONAL RESOURCES LIMITED ISH 18/12/2009 0.2 0.23 Add to watchlist
MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP MQA 25/01/2010 0.51 0.615 Add to watchlist
NT RESOURCES LIMITED NTR 01/02/2010 0.22 0.2 Add to watchlist
OLYMPUS PACIFIC MINERALS INC OYM 05/02/2010 0.22 0.23 Add to watchlist
RUBIANNA RESOURCES LIMITED RRE 09/12/2009 0.23 0.3 Add to watchlist
SERIES 2009-1 WST TRUST WSC 03/02/2010 N/A N/A Add to watchlist
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MINING LIMITED SUH 05/01/2010 0.38 0.38 Add to watchlist
STANMORE COAL LIMITED SMR 09/12/2009 0.315 0.4 Add to watchlist
TORRENS 2009-3 TRUST TRB 21/12/2009 N/A N/A Add to watchlist
TUSKER GOLD LIMITED TKA 16/12/2009 0.32 0.37 Add to watchlist
UNILIFE CORPORATION UNS 18/01/2010 1.055 1.12 Add to watchlist
VICTORIAN GOLD MINES NL VGM 17/12/2009 0.195 0.165 Add to watchlist
XIAOXIAO EDUCATION LIMITED XXL 02/02/2010 0.3 0.3 Add to watchlist

Not very clear, but it shows new companies in the last 2 months, all 23 of them. At that rate = 138 per year or 2760 times you would have to come up with $10,000 over a twenty year period to get your 10,000% ers.

Originally Posted by Riddick,
I'm not convinced your strategy of making $$$ in equities encompasses enough ideas, options, study, information, if you tie yourself to a single methodology. Just my opinion.

I don't believe it is possible for any one person to keep abreast of all the info from all the companies out there. The real secret of trading/profitmaking from the markets is to find yourself a niche, one little thing that works for you then keep doing it. It is called 'an edge'. Having the scattergun approach is what usually sends people broke as they don't have enough control and rely on luck.

I've only been trading/investing/speculating in the markets for ~30 years and for over half that time I managed to lose. Eventually I got better, I'm a slow learner.

brty

brty

 

[nunthewiser]

Riddick,




. The real secret of trading/profitmaking from the markets is to find yourself a niche, one little thing that works for you then keep doing it. It is called 'an edge'. Having the scattergun approach is what usually sends people broke as they don't have enough control and rely on luck.


brty

In a nutshell.

You should write a book and sell it on ASF

 

[wbosher]

As I'm sitting here right now, I am also logged into another forum unrelated to investment / trading where someone is somewhat worried about their TV and fridge going off when they turn a tap on. Now, working that one out is something I can do because I have the required knowledge but to most people it would be a complete mystery. It may well be obvious to me what's wrong, but it sure isn't to the person asking - that's why they've asked on a public forum to find out what's going on.

Manners...

Sorry to go a little off topic here but this really fascinates me. How does turning on a tap affect the TV and fridge?! I gotta know.

 

[SteeleBryant]

Sorry to go a little off topic here but this really fascinates me. How does turning on a tap affect the TV and fridge?! I gotta know.

Flood the TV? :