VOC - Vocus Group

[Boggo]

Did you buy any last week Boggo? Cheering?

You knew I would have for the gap .
Not as many as I should have, isn't hindsight great

I could see that it was likely to close the gap at around $3 which it did, the sell off after that wasn't convincing enough to cause panic and it turned back up at my entry price.
The stop was at 2.60 risking about $600, guesstimate R/R of over 3/1.
One of those every few weeks will keep the wine rack topped up

 

[AlwaysBeClosing]

So what does this mean? I bought at around $2.40 a share and sold for $1 profit on each - will everyone's shares get taken from them if the buyout happens? I sold because I was up (and happy to have made my first withdrawn profit), should I have kept on to them?

 

[Boggo]

Now that it has popped up above 2.57 it looks like it may continue to the $3 area. Should it continue through that and past $3.55 the we may have a new trend direction in place.
Just my

Quoting my own post here.
Looking like good support above the $3.55 point, just need another takeover bid now to keep the momentum going.

 

[JTLP]

So it looks like VOC is stuck at $3.50, with 2 offer at this price.

For all the fanfare of its assets and the potential, this must be pretty disappointing for long term holders.

Can anyone see a higher bid coming? Looks unlikely to me now.

 

[skc]

So it looks like VOC is stuck at $3.50, with 2 offer at this price.

For all the fanfare of its assets and the potential, this must be pretty disappointing for long term holders.

Can anyone see a higher bid coming? Looks unlikely to me now.

I think higher bids are possible. The assets are long life and infrastructure-like, so some clever structuring might allow the bidder to offload the hard assets to some long term holders, like a pension fund, who sometimes overpay for assets like these. The bidder would then be left with a telco operator (as opposed to infrastructure owner), so perhaps higher risk but the bidder could recover a large chunk of its outlay with the hard assets spun out.

 

[craft]

So it looks like VOC is stuck at $3.50, with 2 offer at this price.

For all the fanfare of its assets and the potential, this must be pretty disappointing for long term holders.

Can anyone see a higher bid coming? Looks unlikely to me now.

What's disappointing is that intergration has not gone well. To lose exposure via them endorsing a low cash take over offer would be really disappointing.

No problem with them granting access for due dillagence - Management lost the right to arrogantly send Private equity packing when they lost comprehesive control of the business and disallusioned a large part of the shareholder base. However I don't expect Private Equity to make a bid for the whole company that gets endorsed - maybe an agreed asset sale to retire debt and give management the time to extract the longer term value for shareholders.

 

[JTLP]

Vocus took a fair ole tumble today on the back of no news. Unless someone got an inside whiff of the upcoming results, or a bidder had walked?

 

[notting]

One for investigation if one of the bidders has walked!

 

[JTLP]

One for investigation if one of the bidders has walked!

Well isn't this a surprising tidbit?

 

[mcgrath111]

Well isn't this a surprising tidbit?

Not one but two!
"The two private equity firms that had been engaged in a bidding war for Vocus Group (ASX:VOC) have bowed out of the race for the Australian telco."

 

[galumay]

I suspect this will prove to be a good outcome for shareholders who are actually investors, I would have been annoyed if they sold out at $3.50. Much better to reject the offers. Hopefully we will see a slow recovery and eventual re-rating of the business.

 

[JTLP]

I suspect this will prove to be a good outcome for shareholders who are actually investors, I would have been annoyed if they sold out at $3.50. Much better to reject the offers. Hopefully we will see a slow recovery and eventual re-rating of the business.

Oh I hope the same. Just funny how the price got sold down and then "oh, but parties have walked".

 

[skc]

One for investigation if one of the bidders has walked!

Seems to happen a lot these days. Not the investigation part, but the news getting leaked part.

 

[mcgrath111]

Back down she goes!
Board never fails to disappoint.

 

[tinhat]

I just found out that Vocus offers a 20% discount on iprimus NBN plans that I think makes the pricing very attractive. The only other provider that comes in a couple of dollars cheaper per month that I could find on whistle out is MyRepublic. The deal requires a natural person to own a minimum of 500 shares (approx $1,555 worth).

I rate Vocus a buy. New management led by Bob Mansfield is getting down to business with the support of activist shareholder John Ho of Janchor and has restructured the debt and has seen off the need for any asset fire sales and threat of opportunistic take-overs. Technically the price appears to have come off a long accumulation phase following a triple bottom. Furthermore, I think the change in industry structure with the planned merger between Vodafone and TPG will require TPG to compete more like a mature cash cow business to generate the dividend stream that will be needed to service the Hutchinson Australia zombie debt. Although the NBN makes fixed line a more contestable market and the race for market share continues while the NBN rolls out, margins could also settle down in time especially if nbn's balance sheet gets restructured along the way.

 

[So_Cynical]

I just found out that Vocus offers a 20% discount on iprimus NBN plans that I think makes the pricing very attractive.

https://vocusgroup.com.au/investors/my-shareholding/shareholder-rewards/

They kept that quiet - anyway marginal saving for me from my current (good) NBN service, but did notice that my current provider is charging me $5 more per month than if i signed up now for a new plan...

Iprimus still forcing customers to bundle when i haven't have a land line for years, also the address search says im ADSL ready, strange since i have been connected to NBN fibre for 2 and a half years.

 

[Trav.]

Question for anyone out there.
In the chart below I was wondering if this is a good example of a likely end to a rising market (TradeGuider term) or a Break Out as per my scanning software as indicated by black line.
1. End of rising market - Large volume today and the Narrow Range Bar (NRB) formed following good rise since August.
2. Break Out - Accumulation over last few days testing the $3.50 HR.

 

[peter2]

No, it's not an end to a rising market.

 

[Boggo]

I'm long on this on the weekly, had a good run on it ages ago but unlikely to get the same again.

 

[Cam019]

VOC looking interesting here. Nice big weekly basing pattern into an ascending triangle. It put out one buy signal for my system on the week finishing 19-10-2018 and then nothing since. That could possibly change soon. Potential for the weekly portfolio @peter2?