VOC - Vocus Group

[Klogg]

I still have my original core M2 holdings and would like to replace what got trimmed off on the way up because of portfolio risk limits, but every time I have tried so far there has been decided weakness indicating the time is not right. Perhaps this will be the opportunity.

What do you mean by this, specifically the section in bold?

 

[craft]

What do you mean by this, specifically the section in bold?

Transacting in many parcels you get a feel and every time I have transacted so far it has not felt right. At key little points that frame the parcel accumulation it has been far to easy to buy and hard to sell when puking them back up.

So my interpretation of the conference call is confession that they are not on top of the complexities arising from the combinations. Indigestion risk has materialised, its going to take time and investment into management systems before the business can be driven hard to knowledgably reduce costs of doing business and increase organic revenue growth through cross sell. We are somewhat in the vicinity of covenants so cash flow conversion becomes a focus. I can't see acquisition growth remaining an option unless they are insane. So flat earnings growth for a couple of years whilst they get on top of complexity and management systems for the larger business but in that time it will be imperative (and that is going well) that they still take market share in the NBN / UFB roll outs - because that is a one off churn opportunity.

 

[mcgrath111]

Attitude A: How did hedge funds work it out? What was wrong with the broker's projections? Could I have worked it out? What did I miss? Should I change my style and use technical analysis?

Or

Attitude B:


Only one of these will help someone learn and master the market...

Lets lock in A Eddie.

I don't understand how all of a sudden the big funds 'worked out', and as such drove the price down from low 4's to low 3's within a week. Smells fishy.

They mention the Singapore cable, yet 'people interested'.

Going to call it a day with VOC.
Haven't done much research off the update, and I don't get much detail from it either to be honest.

 

[mcgrath111]

Weird, I thought I could edit my post.

Also, I took an exit today....I see capital raising as a very real issue.

 

[MrChow]

Downgrade 1: From October 1 to November 28 net short stock increased to 300% of previous levels.

Downgrade 2: From April 13 to May 2 50-80% of volume was shorted each day.

Would love to work for an institution that gets superior information.

 

[skc]

Lets lock in A Eddie.

That's the correct answer....cue millionaire music.

I don't understand how all of a sudden the big funds 'worked out', and as such drove the price down from low 4's to low 3's within a week. Smells fishy.

Looking at the shorts interest on VOC, they worked it out around Oct/Nov last year, before the first downgrade at the AGM.

VOC is not a simple business and I don't know how the instos worked it out. But the shorts' interests were definitely piped by the sell down and mass exodus of management ranks. There were important exits that weren't announced but were in the public domain. Those were without doubt insider trading...

On the change in revenue recognition which was responsible for $40m of lost revenue, the example given in the conference call was that when customers pay $5m upfront for the 5 year contract, VOC used to recognise the full $5m in the current year, but now it will be spread over the life of the contract. I am no accountant, but geez doesn't that sound like accrual accounting 101? Were there notes in the annual reports that hinted at this and were picked up by the shorters? And seriously, who pays the full amount upfront when the project lasts for years? You wouldn't even do that on a $5k paint job.

 

[galumay]

Its a little frustrating when there is corruption on this scale, I am doubly kicking myself because I was so reluctant to get into this sector that I dont like and in a company whose management I knew was awful (in a sector riddled with awful management!), but I overrode all my instincts and took a position in the low $4s because of my analysis that it was oversold on the news (in hindsight i was sort of right - it was oversold on the news the public knew, but the inside traders were another story!).

Luckily my reservations meant I only took a small position and I will chalk it off as another important learning experience. (in a week where I have had a couple!)

 

[Triathlete]

It does not matter what insider trading (if it was going on at all) ....Those with technical experience in charts saw it coming.
It played out exactly as an Elliott wave should.
As I have mentioned on a number of occassions the first place you are going to see problems with a stock is on a chart, regardless of what information is out in the public domain.

 

[Triathlete]

Triathlete, follow up from TLS thread.
Daily chart attached but it is not the consistent or 'rule' compliant pattern that I would like.
Basically the price has just touched the minimum W5 level and has attempted a bounce from there.

If we were to expect VOC to play out according to this then there is quite a bit more downside but I would be looking for other factors to influence opinions or decisions.

Daily chart...
View attachment 70755

I think VOC played out exactly as was expected.....

 

[So_Cynical]

Many PE suitors are circling according to the Australian...a cluster **** of private equity sharks.

 

[Boggo]

...

As I have mentioned on a number of occassions the first place you are going to see problems with a stock is on a chart, regardless of what information is out in the public domain.

100% agree with that statement Triathelete, happens again and again in both directions.

Looks like the StockDoctor guys were on the money too with their method of reading between the lines.

I have been out of internet contact in the Gammon Ranges for the last week, just got home tonight (fri) and it looks I missed all the fun

Is that the bottom or is the next level and option ??

 

[Boggo]

In my experience most genuine fundamental investors are of the belief that if a company is trading at a discount to its intrinsic valuation range then it is likley a good incvestment at that point in time. For a mob like Lincoln to say, "oh, its now trading at well below what we believed it was worth, we are going to stop coverage of it." is entirely at odds with FA IMO!.

Isn't the fact that it is trading below what it is worth (based on what, company reports etc ??) a clue that there is an issue or am I missing something really "fundamental" here ?

 

[So_Cynical]

Looks like the StockDoctor guys were on the money too with their method of reading between the lines.

They didn't see **** coming with RCG, however ballsy for Stock Dr to still rate them as well as they do..

 

[Triathlete]

[QUOTE="Boggo, post: 946547, member:

Is that the bottom or is the next level and option ??
View attachment 70985[/QUOTE]

All I know is the 5th wave usually extends 50% to 75% so if ut is at those ranges now it could get a bit riskier to trade and you would need to watch it like a hawke.

There is a cment that the PE guys may be interested and this might cause a bounce. I have closed my short at $2.36 so just watching now and will.be away from my screens till thursday .I will take another look when I get back...

 

[Boggo]

Watching this as an exercise, follow up from here...
VOC - Vocus Group

Now that it has popped up above 2.57 it looks like it may continue to the $3 area. Should it continue through that and past $3.55 the we may have a new trend direction in place.
Just my

 

[Boggo]

Now that it has popped up above 2.57 it looks like it may continue to the $3 area. Should it continue through that and past $3.55 the we may have a new trend direction in place.
Just my

That's the gap closed this morning at around the $3, expecting to see a few sellers appear and capitalise on the recent run.
Overall it looks strong so expecting it to continue upwards.

 

[JTLP]

Highly conditional $3.50 a share offer. Can't imagine anyone wanting this. Was hoping for a purchase of non core as per credit suisse's note.

 

[So_Cynical]

Many PE suitors are circling according to the Australian...a cluster **** of private equity sharks.

Sharks coming in for the kill.

 

[skc]

Sharks coming in for the kill.

I guess this is the first bid... there is probably more than one shark in the water given the quality of the meat.
VOC did get itself in this shark infested water though, didn't they?

This is one of the few rare times that a Financial Review takeover rumour actually turn out to be true!

 

[rb250660]

Did you buy any last week Boggo? Cheering?