VOC - Vocus Group

[So_Cynical]

Thanks Team ASF - this could be interesting, VOC is basically a network business and that really would come in handy for smart grids and meters.

 

[Smurf1976]

Is that the case in all states?

It is for the National Electricity Market (NEM) states certainly for those on the main grid. Not sure what WA and NT are doing as they're separate.

So your existing meter which is owned by the distributor (eg SAPN) stays but if an ew one is required for any reason (eg installing solar, end of life replacement, whatever) then that's now the retailer's responsibility and all new meters, under normal circumstances, will be smart meters which communicate (so no more manual meter reads).

As the nature of the energy industry changes there's a growing need to control not just generation but also load and to take that well beyond the traditional approaches. Doing that first requires a method of communication with that load.

Some examples of that are AGL's Virtual Power Plant trial in SA using communication connected batteries. Another one is the King Island Renewable Energy Integration Project (Hydro Tasmania) which includes very rapid switching of certain consumer loads. Other companies also have various projects.

That's one "data" aspect of the energy industry - using data in the context of supplying power.

That data centers use enough power that most electricity companies have at least some interest is another.

The overall concept of retailing a "connected home" sort of approach is another. Think in terms of Telstra offering entertainment content not just the method of communications. There's no real barrier to AGL getting into that if they want to - sign up with them for electricity and they'll give you "free" access to whatever online entertainment service carrying their own branding etc. Or maybe they just offer the actual means of communication without the content. Lots of options there.

 

[rederob]

So your existing meter which is owned by the distributor (eg SAPN) stays but if an ew one is required for any reason (eg installing solar, end of life replacement, whatever) then that's now the retailer's responsibility and all new meters, under normal circumstances, will be smart meters which communicate (so no more manual meter reads).

Smurf, do you see any value in retrofitting meters?
Or, do you think it is likely that AGL would retrofit meters?

 

[Smurf1976]

Smurf, do you see any value in retrofitting meters? Or, do you think it is likely that AGL would retrofit meters?

There's no set program to do so and a lot of uncertainties as to how fast it will happen, that is replacement due to need (slowly) versus replacement for purely commercial reasons (potentially very fast), but ultimately it will happen and at some future time the retailers will own all metering (so the distributors own none).

Other industries are interested in or going down a similar approach. Eg gas and water meters. They have some difficulty when compared to electricity meters since gas and water meters in residential situations don't have mains power connected, they're a purely mechanical device traditionally, meaning that any "smarts" need to be low powered.

Some utilities have gone half way however. Eg water meters in Hobart have low powered transmitters in them and the meters are read simply by driving past. So there's still a meter reader but they don't get out of the car to read the meter, just drive past slowly in an ordinary car with a receiver in it. So it's still a sort of "big data" approach, albeit one implemented in a very basic manner.

Public transport's another example of a utility-like industry that has gone down the "data" track. Ticketing is one aspect of that but physically tracking vehicles, especially buses, is another. Use your smartphone to see in real time exactly where the bus you're waiting for is.

Control of the systems too. Eg monitoring gas or water pressure and communicating that back to whatever central control system and raising an alarm for human investigation if it goes outside where it should be.

Things like large LPG tanks in areas without mains natural gas are another one. Monitoring and communication to a central system to alert when it's down to x% full and needs to be topped up saves anyone having to keep a watch on it and manually arrange a gas delivery.

Road signs are another one. Eg every school in Tasmania has solar powered illuminated speed signs which light up during the school zone times as a road safety measure (it's pretty hard for anyone to miss seeing a great big flashing sign even if it's foggy at the time). Another example of a system installed in the open which communicates back to a central control system for programming and monitoring. If the battery's running flat then someone can be alerted. If the school's shut tomorrow for whatever reason then the sign doesn't turn on. Etc.

And so on. The common element in all of this is traditional utility and utility-like services going down the path of implementing "smart" systems all of which rely on data. Now a modest size bus company won't likely buy a telco but for someone like AGL that's an option to explore certainly.

 

[rederob]

The common element in all of this is traditional utility and utility-like services going down the path of implementing "smart" systems all of which rely on data.

I guess my thinking was along the lines of creating microgrids, especially where battery and solar are integrated. Given that 60% of homes in our street already have solar PV, and I imagine many other Australian suburbs would have high solar uptake, then I was curious how a microgrid would be possible without retrofitting smart meters, given I heard the concept is being piloted somewhere .

 

[Smurf1976]

I guess my thinking was along the lines of creating microgrids, especially where battery and solar are integrated. Given that 60% of homes in our street already have solar PV, and I imagine many other Australian suburbs would have high solar uptake, then I was curious how a microgrid would be possible without retrofitting smart meters, given I heard the concept is being piloted somewhere .

In a purely technical sense it would be dead easy. There needs to be a means of controlling the connected solar (etc) equipment but that's a separate task as such to metering.

Whether any company would be interested in such an approach from a commercial perspective and could make it pay is another matter.

More directly relating to AGL possibly taking over VOC, something I left out is that a rival (non-AGL) electricity company already offers their customers their own branded NBN / ADSL product as an additional service upon signing up to a 12 month electricity contract.

 

[JTLP]

Vocus must be an absolute basket case under the hood. Every bidder has walked away early and it seems very negative.

 

[rederob]

Vocus must be an absolute basket case under the hood. Every bidder has walked away early and it seems very negative.

Vocus went up in price as a result of speculation and several opportunities for a buyout.
These have all - especially after AGL's decision today - come to nought.

 

[JTLP]

Vocus went up in price as a result of speculation and several opportunities for a buyout.
These have all - especially after AGL's decision today - come to nought.

Well aware. Just saying that every bidder that’s had a look has baulked early on. Not a good sign.

 

[Knobby22]

Well aware. Just saying that every bidder that’s had a look has baulked early on. Not a good sign.

They always call them suitors so you think of the company as a pretty girl.
I keep thinking that every time they "look under the bonnet" they find more than the bargained for..

 

[Smurf1976]

Vocus must be an absolute basket case under the hood. Every bidder has walked away early and it seems very negative.

It seems so.

AGL management seem to be saying that they're still keen on the concept of getting involved with communications, just not by means of buying VOC.

Perhaps what's most concerning for VOC shareholders is that AGL reached their conclusion so quickly. Whatever the reason, logic says it must be a big enough one to have made the decision very clear cut with no need to give it too much thought.

 

[JTLP]

Where’s that head bang emoji? For some stupid reason didn’t sell out when the first offer came through, now left languishing and this is getting punished hard.

Is it NBN driven or something more sinister?

 

[peter2]

The weekly chart shows how disappointing VOC has been to investors ($9 to $2.3). VOC has been trading in a range for more than 2.5 years while mgt tries to turn the company around. The recent daily price action is looking more bullish and I'm anticipating price to BO>3.40 soon. I'll accept another buyout offer.

 

[JTLP]

Anyone got an insight in to why Vocus has taken such a beating? Back to the depths of sub $3, when not long ago we had buyouts on the table and an OK SP.

In other news, I’ve participated in the class action and believe this month we’ll find out how much we’re entitled to...

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Vocus share price returned 40% for investors over the course of the year; it is back to the levels seen in June 2019, when termination of talks with AGL (to acquire VOC) were halted,

In recent years, sales have not increased, earnings per share (LHS below) have dropped and EPS (below, RHS) is in the low single digits.

Its core growth engine is the Vocus Network Services (VNS) – a fibre network that encompasses all of Australia, the Pacific rim to Hong Kong and the east coast of the United States, as well as New Zealand. The company’s retail offering, meanwhile, includes brands like Dodo and iPrimus.

FY20 was the first year in the company’s 3-year turnaround plan, where it delivered total recurring revenues of $1.75 billion, a 1% decline on the prior year. The company is predicting an even brighter FY21, and expects earnings to grown between 8% to 12% in its VNS business.

 

[Trav.]

@Dona Ferentes good post mate, I have added this one to the watch list.

Weekly chart below showing another view.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets has offered $5.50 a share in bid for Vocus

 

[Dona Ferentes]

VOCUS AGREES SCHEME IMPLEMENTATION DEED WITH CONSORTIUM OF MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE AND REAL ASSETS AND AWARE SUPER
• If the scheme proceeds, Vocus shareholders to receive consideration of $5.50 per share in cash
• Values Vocus equity at $3.5 billion and an enterprise value of $4.6 billion

 

[System]

On July 23rd, 2021, Vocus Group Limited (VOC) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between VOC and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in VOC by Voyage Australia Pty Limited.