TZL - TZ Limited

[zaal]

See What Bev Found!

Hi Guys,
This was posted on another forum.

Visteon is a Tier 1 Auto Supplier which appears to be using Intevia technology..

These links are very interesting
http://www.visteon.com/innovate/background/index.html

http://www.visteon.com/innovate/download/us/13_latch_system.pdf

They also mention Sales potential of 16 m units and available in 2009.

The Tzl story is phenomenal! (In my humble opinion)

cheers,
Zaal

 

[Pommiegranite]

See What Bev Found!

Hi Guys,
This was posted on another forum.

Visteon is a Tier 1 Auto Supplier which appears to be using Intevia technology..

These links are very interesting
http://www.visteon.com/innovate/background/index.html

http://www.visteon.com/innovate/download/us/13_latch_system.pdf

They also mention Sales potential of 16 m units and available in 2009.

The Tzl story is phenomenal! (In my humble opinion)

cheers,
Zaal

Zaal I have been aware of this for some time but was hesitant to post this, in case I were accused of trying to ramp up a stock.

However, now that you have brought it up, what the hell. I will go further to say that the sale of 16million units is worth $16EPS, or on a NASDAQ p/e average of 50 - $794 share price.

An important point to remember is that this is for only 1 of 6 vehicle applications identified so far, and ground transport is 1 of 6 taget markets and not neccessarily the largest.

IMHO , there are future billionaires shareholders in the company, of which I will be one of many.

 

[zaal]

I agree with you P.

This company does have the potential to do amazing things. Many people have taken large positions prior to the coming NASDAQ listing, but most people (including brokers) have not heard about it or do not "get it". i.e. the immensity of what is to come.

If this is seen as ramping - so be it!

Zaal

 

[Pommiegranite]

I agree with you P.

This company does have the potential to do amazing things. Many people have taken large positions prior to the coming NASDAQ listing, but most people (including brokers) have not heard about it or do not "get it". i.e. the immensity of what is to come.

If this is seen as ramping - so be it!

Zaal

Z, This broker gets it: http://www.jmdutton.com/research/TZ/index.html


"

The server market in 2007 grew about 7.5% to about 8.8 million units (Gartner in Digitimes). Typically, a server has a 4 year life, so one estimate of the installed base is 36 million units, or a potential retrofit market for Intevia fasteners of 72 million units for potential server applications only. Add another 12 million fasteners for cabinet doors.​

Other market sized data to consider (2007) are the estimated 515 million hard disk drives shipped (iSupply in DigiTimes), and an
external disk storage system market of $4.4 billion (IBM in DigiTimes)."​

For only retrofit, a potential of 84million fasteners:​

84million x $50per unit = $4.2 billion potential revenue​

i.e $35 EPS​

SP for this application on p/e of 40 = $1,389​

or 365x current SP.​

Combined with the other applications in a best case scenario, I calculate that 180 shares held today would turn someone into a millionaire in 5 years.​

Now if you're holding 6 figure amount of shares, surely that's enough to turn someone into one of Australia's richest?

Unfortunately for those watching from the sidelines, it is nigh on impossible to build any meaningful holding without drving up the shareprice substantially.

With DKR out of the equation in 5 weeks, another milestone will be reached soon.​

 

[treefrog]

Zaal I have been aware of this for some time but was hesitant to post this, in case I were accused of trying to ramp up a stock.

However, now that you have brought it up, what the hell. I will go further to say that the sale of 16million units is worth $16EPS, or on a NASDAQ p/e average of 50 - $794 share price.

An important point to remember is that this is for only 1 of 6 vehicle applications identified so far, and ground transport is 1 of 6 taget markets and not neccessarily the largest.

IMHO , there are future billionaires shareholders in the company, of which I will be one of many.

Pommie, Pommie, Pommie,
How can we trust you now: what else are you holding out on. When you do that (yep, me too, I knew that but didn't tell you) some may deduce you withhold other news on us - perhaps even the type with bad vibes.

 

[Pommiegranite]

Pommie, Pommie, Pommie,
How can we trust you now: what else are you holding out on. When you do that (yep, me too, I knew that but didn't tell you) some may deduce you withhold other news on us - perhaps even the type with bad vibes.

Frog.

DYOFR. I owe you no information.

This is a thread to discuss TZL.

Stop using 'us' and 'we' in a pathetic attempt to make it look as though you represent anyone besides your sorry self.

Do you have anything to discuss about TZL?

No?

Well that's not surprising.

Goodbye then.:

 

[shaunm]

Z, This broker gets it: http://www.jmdutton.com/research/TZ/index.html


"

The server market in 2007 grew about 7.5% to about 8.8 million units (Gartner in Digitimes). Typically, a server has a 4 year life, so one estimate of the installed base is 36 million units, or a potential retrofit market for Intevia fasteners of 72 million units for potential server applications only. Add another 12 million fasteners for cabinet doors.​

Other market sized data to consider (2007) are the estimated 515 million hard disk drives shipped (iSupply in DigiTimes), and an
external disk storage system market of $4.4 billion (IBM in DigiTimes)."​

For only retrofit, a potential of 84million fasteners:​

84million x $50per unit = $4.2 billion potential revenue​

i.e $35 EPS​

SP for this application on p/e of 40 = $1,389​

or 365x current SP.​

Combined with the other applications in a best case scenario, I calculate that 180 shares held today would turn someone into a millionaire in 5 years.​

Now if you're holding 6 figure amount of shares, surely that's enough to turn someone into one of Australia's richest?

Unfortunately for those watching from the sidelines, it is nigh on impossible to build any meaningful holding without drving up the shareprice substantially.

With DKR out of the equation in 5 weeks, another milestone will be reached soon.​

Hi Pommiegranite
Some truely astounding figures being mentioned here I hold (not a 6 figure amount but enough to be very well off if the best case scenario arrives)and wait.

I assume your mention about DKR being out of the way in 5 weeks refer to the previously discussed price manipulation, and after that should we expect a more representative SP? May very well be a good time for a top up.
Cheers

 

[treefrog]

Frog.
DYOFR. I owe you no information.
This is a thread to discuss TZL.
Stop using 'us' and 'we' in a pathetic attempt to make it look as though you represent anyone besides your sorry self.
Do you have anything to discuss about TZL?
No?
Well that's not surprising.
Goodbye then.:

I note you are actually a very sensitive person pommie.
I appologise for posting in your thread. I mistakenly believed that as a holder of TZL stock, that it would be OK.
As for discussion, I hadn't noticed much, mostly fanatical ramping.
It is interesting to note that Stoklosa puts a 12 month target for TZL of $10; a wee bit less than yours and proportionally in touch with other apparent good value stocks.
As for the use of the plural pronouns in my post, I used them correctly.
Have a good evening pommie.

 

[Pommiegranite]

Hi Pommiegranite
Some truely astounding figures being mentioned here I hold (not a 6 figure amount but enough to be very well off if the best case scenario arrives)and wait.

I assume your mention about DKR being out of the way in 5 weeks refer to the previously discussed price manipulation, and after that should we expect a more representative SP? May very well be a good time for a top up.
Cheers

'
Shaun, if you go back through management's announcements over the past year, you will see that they use words such as 'revolutionary' , 'visionary' and 'ubiquitous'. Their intentions are clear in that they believe that Intevia can change manufacturing and the way we live our lives.

Obvisouly, it will take a few years for full market penetration. I expect to hold for at least 4 years.

The Visteon link with Intevia is an example of what I have been saying all along, that there are games being played.

Why would TZ not mention that Visteon are planning on aiming Intevia at a 16million unit glove box market, when Visteon are happy to mention it on their own website?

More and more I suspect that TZ do not wish to publish this while DKR can just convert notes, and drive the SP down. Basically after June 4th, the SP gets a clear run.

Once again DYOR...but feel free to correct me where I am wrong based on your what you have discovered.

 

[Pommiegranite]

Treefrog, I've checked a few of your posts, and have noticed that you really add little value to any discussion thread. It seems the general consensus is that you are as welcome as your cousin, the Cane Toad.

I have therefore added you to my ignore list until you end up getting yourself eradicated.

 

[MangaNOID]

the sale of 16million units is worth $16EPS, or on a NASDAQ p/e average of 50 - $794 share price.

I am trying to understand these mathematics but am having problems.
to me this makes it sound like the sale of 16 mill units will see a worth of $794 for each share. where as you need to start with a sp of $794 to get a P/E of 50

can you explain you calculations please in more laymen terms for someone like myself. as these above workings could sure get someone ramped up with apotential $794 sp

 

[treefrog]

Treefrog, I've checked a few of your posts, and have noticed that you really add little value to any discussion thread. It seems the general consensus is that you are as welcome as your cousin, the Cane Toad.
I have therefore added you to my ignore list until you end up getting yourself eradicated.

Oh dear; the testosterone charged ostrich attitude.
Pommie
We obviously have different angles on value: I consider the following from you to not be of any value whatsoever.

Combined with the other applications in a best case scenario, I calculate that 180 shares held today would turn someone into a millionaire in 5 years

The following however is of value

Commsec have no more information than you can do from your own research. Dutton's however are privvy to more information as they are paid by TZ.
Please review the latest Duttons report, and you will see how gargantuan the target market is for Enterprise.

and

Z, This broker gets it: http://www.jmdutton.com/research/TZ/index.html

but readers of this thread would likely know that it is only of value if they check for themselves, and some might determine:
1) What you appear to be saying is that Duttons know the company well and have their analysis correct.
2) Dutton's target in that link is only $10 in 12 months time - and that is from an analyst who is paid by TZ - so maybe a little high?
3) Co paid tp analysis can be instigated to promote the share price, or for genuine investment information reasons.
4) from their own observations and experience, that rampant ramping often puts genuine buyers off.

 

[Pommiegranite]

I am trying to understand these mathematics but am having problems.
to me this makes it sound like the sale of 16 mill units will see a worth of $794 for each share. where as you need to start with a sp of $794 to get a P/E of 50

can you explain you calculations please in more laymen terms for someone like myself. as these above workings could sure get someone ramped up with apotential $794 sp

The Intevia website used to have prices for fastening mechanisms. You now have to 'call for price'. From memory, the prices ranged from $40 to $500.

From the Visteon's glovebox potential sales numbers @ $100 US per unit:

Gross Revenue = 16,000,000 (US Sales) x $100 = $1.6billion

Net Revenue (including SGA+R&D)= $1.6 billion x 40% net margin (Intevia is high margin) = $720million

EPS = $720million/45.3million shares = $15.89

P/E (convservative as high gowth stocks on NASDAQ have P/Es 100+ = 50

SP = EPS x P/E= $15.89 x 50 = $795

The unit price & units sold by Visteon will probably be lower, and diluted market cap higher. However, the P/E and margin I expect also to be higher. So in my eyes it will all balance out.

Then there are all of the other vehicle application eg console latches, convertible hood fastenings. Then there are also the other geographical regions. Then there are the other Auto suppliers.

If that doesn't take the SP high enough, then consider all of the other markets which TZ has targeted: IT , Aerospace , Marine, Defence & Industrial.

Ground Transport will not even be anywhere the largest market.

So we are talking about a massive massive market. Research has shown (in 2004) that the market for Intelligent fastenings was $50billion and growing at 4% per year. TZ has a massive head start with a 14 year lead time due to their patents.

THIS IS NOT A MINING STOCK WHERE PROJECT VALUES HAVE TO BE DISCOUNTED DUE TO MASSIVE LEAD TIMES TO PRODUCTION AND FINANCING ISSUES. UNLIKE MINING STOCK TZ DO NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT OVER SUPPLY OR UNDER DEMAND OF RESOURCES IN 10 YEARS.

TZ ALREADY HAVE THE EQUIVILENT OF OFFTAKE AGREEMENTS . THEY HAVE OVER 100 COMPANIES (AND GROWING) WHO WISH TO BE EARLY ADOPTERS. SO FAR NAMES DISCOVERED ARE: BOEING + AIRBUS + BAE + KARMANN + LARSONN + NAVISTAR. (BILLION$ REVENUE COMPANIES)

AS THE PRICE OF OIL GOES UP, SO WILL DEMAND FOR INTEVIA IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS AEROSPACE AND TRANSPORT. COMPANIES ARE INCREASINGLY LOOKING TO SAVE COSTS. INTEVIA DOES THIS.

I expect TZ to be the largest company in the world. Do your own research, read all of the announcements, read+listen to the presentations. Then do the sums. Even worst case scenarios would be very very profitable for shareholders.

 

[treefrog]

I expect TZ to be the largest company in the world. Do your own research, read all of the announcements, read+listen to the presentations. Then do the sums. Even worst case scenarios would be very very profitable for shareholders.

and that's direct from dreamworld folks, but as you consider reality you might note:
1) TZ is a very small company - Market Capital $172 million
2) Big fish have a habit of eating little fish - they must to survive.
3) If dreamworld begins to approach reality TZ at $4 will be gone quickly for not a great deal more this year and if the analyst's $10 is realised next year, perhaps $12
4) And spare me the nonsense that the directors and shareholders won't sell.
Market risks (competition etc) are real

 

[Pommiegranite]

and that's direct from dreamworld folks, but as you consider reality you might note:
1) TZ is a very small company - Market Capital $172 million
2) Big fish have a habit of eating little fish - they must to survive.
3) If dreamworld begins to approach reality TZ at $4 will be gone quickly for not a great deal more this year and if the analyst's $10 is realised next year, perhaps $12
4) And spare me the nonsense that the directors and shareholders won't sell.
Market risks (competition etc) are real

Froggy..I couldn't resist but to take you of ignore.

You obviously seem to be an extremely inexperienced investor. All of your above points prove this...and to help you out and in response to all 4 of your repetitve points:

1)Yes a small company. What do you expect? Did Google start out as a $200billion company?..rotfl!:bonk:

2)Big fish...little fish? What an airy-fairy comment. You really have no idea as to how takeovers happen. Once again...we are not in your pond.

3)Ludicrous statement - That means that no small company would ever progress with out being swallowed up. Do you have a crystal ball? Where do you get the $10/$12 from? (refer to previous point about not having a clue about how takeovers happen)

4)Crikey...this moronic comment really tops it. So now you are a reader of directors' minds? Stop making a fool of yourself and do some research in how long management have spent bringing this invention to the forefront (6 years) Certainly not to sell for meagre profits.:screwy:

Like most pondlife..you really have no idea as to what is happening outside of your simple ecosystem.

That or it's a feeble attempt to keep people from buying. Why else post negative on a post you profess to hold!

Thanks though as you really have made me laugh on this lazy afternoon.

Watch out...big fish swallow little fish....if only the stock market were that simple..ROTFL!!

 

[Santoro]

Lets keep this thread focused on TZL, clearly the opportunities are out there and we all view things and research things differently, which makes this place a good forum to post your comments and share your opinions.

No need to get personal.

 

[treefrog]

That or it's a feeble attempt to keep people from buying. Why else post negative on a post you profess to hold!

You sound off a lot Pommie so here's a straightforward challenge:
Let's have a wager of 100,000 TZL ordinary shares on whether or not I currently hold TZL shares.

 

[Pommiegranite]

You sound off a lot Pommie so here's a straightforward challenge:
Let's have a wager of 100,000 TZL ordinary shares on whether or not I currently hold TZL shares.

Here's an even more straightforward challenge:

Let's see whether you can go away do some research and come back and post something sensible which would add value to this thread (negative or positive - technical or fundamental)

 

[treefrog]

Here's an even more straightforward challenge:
Let's see whether you can go away do some research and come back and post something sensible which would add value to this thread (negative or positive - technical or fundamental)

it definately is not straightforward - it is subjective in the extreme and likely to promote more personal attacks - an unfortunate trait of this thread for anyone who dares to have a different view from your own.
My offer remains.
It is concise and specific.
It is a great opportunity for you to show your opinion is correct.
It will provide you with an extra 100,000 TZL shares.

 

[Pommiegranite]

it definately is not straightforward - it is subjective in the extreme and likely to promote more personal attacks - an unfortunate trait of this thread for anyone who dares to have a different view from your own.
My offer remains.
It is concise and specific.
It is a great opportunity for you to show your opinion is correct.
It will provide you with an extra 100,000 TZL shares.

Tommorow morning during pre-open, (I'll let you decide the time), place 100,000 up for sale at $5.

Let me know what time, and I will have a look to see if you are for real.

I doubt you own more than 1000 shares.

Deal?