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- 12 February 2009
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And what price is fair value?
There would be plenty of "longtermers" who are still nowhere near getting there money back and there are plenty of new holders with average prices under 35c that are already miles in front.
Based on their Prelim final report they only have $1.15m cash left but they had op cashflow of -$7.2m last year. The last qtrly suggests that they burn $2m in the quarter. Unless they got some large increase in cash receipts they should be out of cash around now?!
And there are some who recognized extreme value at 20c and backed up the truck.
Value investing is the Buffet Way, and who are we to argue?
Incorrect SKC. See graphic at the bottom. $6.4m at 30/06!!!
Haven't answered the question of fair value yet?
Had to get it right sooner or later.
Still don't see them as undervalued... I prefer to see profits. But they seem to have progressed to a point where you can possibly call them 'with speculative upside'.
Is a company signing major contracts with high-profile companies really speculative? This is why the company is now being re-rated...IMO
And what price is fair value?
IMO....the share price peaked at $7.20 in 2007 when tz were still in the conceptial/trial stage. Now we are seeing real orders and trials with major companies that when named one would assume a further re-rating....if fair value at conceptial stage was $4-5, then considering the progress do date and size of the markets they have entered, fair value should be >$2.50-3, taking into account we now have double the shares on issue.
It does appear after the Sigalla debacle the market is still a little hesident to get into tz until names are named and/or they show some real forecasts/numbers to whet the appetite.....IMO the move in the share price has been moving towards where it should have been and were are on the verge of a re-rating IMO
So in other words you have no idea what fair value is.
we are talking about a technology company with an enormous upside of which none or very little has been factored into the current sp....fair value for PDT alone would be 30-40c.... a technology company such as tz is not measured by profits as you may be alluding to, it's more about potential....so in my mind fair value is 2.50-3.00 right now with the potential of being 10-20 bagger from there in the next few years.....all IMO
i'll still be holding onto most of mine in 5 years from now....i have a friend that bought 400 apple shares and paid AU$7 for them, hasn't taken any profits and still holds all of them at $404ea.......I see tz as having a similar potential in the years to come as I would think many other long term holders do....i guess that's the main reason we held on and hopefully....but now the tide has changed and as MB said in his last announcement shareholders realisations will beging to come true in 2012 (words to that effect)
That's fine but has nothing to do with fair value.
Your guess of $2.50-$3 is just that a guess! I also think comparing TZ to Apple is a pretty long bow to draw.
The company has got potential but until it turns that potential into actual profits it is all speculation about what the company could be worth in 2,5,10 years. A lot of thins will need to go right for TZ to be worth $25+.
This company can just keep selling licence deals into all industries all over the world.
IMO we are just on the cusp of seeing real revenues THIS half, Two deals are done and dusted, they just subjected to confidentiality clauses atm
we have already seen NEXTDC & VTI announced, just don't know what sort of revenue from each deal....
NEXTDC said this.. "The TZ solution is the only system that effectively ticks all those boxs"
VTI said this "It’s the perfect solution for this client and other VTI clients in the same situation.”
Lets just see it get over a $1 then we will look for $2 it may take time but to get to $10-$20 and I may be dead by then, but it will get there !
Hi firstly I didn't compare it to apple
Secondly the locker market is huge
Yet another ann without any figures. All well and good to say it "represents a significant opportunity" but just how significant? What prices or margins are they selling for?
Sure, they could sell millions, but if they are selling them at breakeven whats the point in that.
I want some hard numbers so the market can actually value these guys properly not just based on hyperbole
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