TZL - TZ Limited

[UBIQUITOUS]

Has just crossed and remained above the 50 day moving average which it hasn't done since September. Should be showing up on a few radars. Could happy days be here again?

 

[nomore4s]

Looks like TZL is one of the real bargains of recent times on the ASX. All it requires is that first deal to show to the world. Some will argue that can be said about many specs, and they wouldn't be wrong.

Has just crossed and remained above the 50 day moving average which it hasn't done since September. Should be showing up on a few radars. Could happy days be here again?

I have to laugh at some of your posts. The above are bordering on blatant ramping imo.Pure what if, hold in hope posts.

LMAO at the 50 day moving average comment, it's crossed because it hasn't gone anywhere in 50 days, certainly no sign that it will rocket.

I will say one positive thing though at least it has halted it's downward trend and looks to be forming some sort of base but that will only be known for certain if it actually breaks upwards as there is always the possibility it will break downwards.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

I have to laugh at some of your posts. The above are bordering on blatant ramping imo.Pure what if, hold in hope posts.

LMAO at the 50 day moving average comment, it's crossed because it hasn't gone anywhere in 50 days, certainly no sign that it will rocket.

I will say one positive thing though at least it has halted it's downward trend and looks to be forming some sort of base but that will only be known for certain if it actually breaks upwards as there is always the possibility it will break downwards.

nomore, I should be careful what I say in case you throw another fraction my way because you disagree with me.

I never wrote that it will rocket, so please would you explain why you are 'putting words in my mouth?'

All I am saying is that from my charting, I am reading a break of the downtrend and a reversal. If you don't agree with me it doesn't mean that I am ramping. Perhaps you could be wrong. Ever considered it?

 

[nomore4s]

nomore, I should be careful what I say in case you throw another fraction my way because you disagree with me.

I never wrote that it will rocket, so please would you explain why you are 'putting words in my mouth?'

All I am saying is that from my charting, I am reading a break of the downtrend and a reversal. If you don't agree with me it doesn't mean that I am ramping. Perhaps you could be wrong. Ever considered it?

lol, I never said you said it would rocket, just stating that breaking the 50 day moving ave due to going sideways for 4-5 months is no indication of anything.

The posts highlighted are like I said pretty much "pure what if, hold in hope posts" with little substance and little more then thinly disguised ramps. I mean saying "Looks like TZL is one of the real bargains of recent times on the ASX" is stretching the truth a bit considering its share price has more then halved in the last 12 months and gone pretty much nowhere for the last 3. I could highlight any number of real bargains that have actually gone up.

Don't worry I get it wrong plenty (at least I'm not afraid to admit it, just look back through the thread and see just how wrong you have been so far) and I'm sure TZL will eventually have it's day in the sun as it is not without potential despite all its problems but I will assure you this - I will have a better ave price then you and I won't have had to hold it while watching it fall all the way from over $4 to under 30c and buying it all the way down.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

lol, I never said you said it would rocket, just stating that breaking the 50 day moving ave due to going sideways for 4-5 months is no indication of anything.

The posts highlighted are like I said pretty much "pure what if, hold in hope posts" with little substance and little more then thinly disguised ramps. I mean saying "Looks like TZL is one of the real bargains of recent times on the ASX" is stretching the truth a bit considering its share price has more then halved in the last 12 months and gone pretty much nowhere for the last 3. I could highlight any number of real bargains that have actually gone up.

That's one of the most ridiculous things that I have read. You do not understand value. I suggest you read 'the intelligent investor' by Benjamin Graham. The lower the price gets, the better the bargain providing that all other things are equal. The company is in a better position that at $7.20 or even at IPO stage at arond $2.50 but the price is 30c. Now if the price goes to 15c tomorrow, by your logic the value (bargain) of the company has reduced.

It is these kind of stocks that value investors look our for ie a stock that is trading below adjusted book value (Net Assets + Total R&D spend + Total Marketing spend (Brand) + Value of customer relationships). I come up with over $100m, or about 90c per share.

Don't worry I get it wrong plenty (at least I'm not afraid to admit it, just look back through the thread and see just how wrong you have been so far) and I'm sure TZL will eventually have it's day in the sun as it is not without potential despite all its problems but I will assure you this - I will have a better ave price then you and I won't have had to hold it while watching it fall all the way from over $4 to under 30c and buying it all the way down.

So you sold off most of your stock to freecarry. Hardly ingenious nor worth beating your chest about.

Let's see how this investment pans out, but I do find it interesting that you hold a stock which goes against everyone of the trading rules that you have preached.

 

[nomore4s]

That's one of the most ridiculous things that I have read. You do not understand value. I suggest you read 'the intelligent investor' by Benjamin Graham. The lower the price gets, the better the bargain providing that all other things are equal. The company is in a better position that at $7.20 or even at IPO stage at arond $2.50 but the price is 30c. Now if the price goes to 15c tomorrow, by your logic the value (bargain) of the company has reduced.

Except things normally aren't equal when the price gets lower, hence the reason the price is lower.

I think I understand value just fine.
MND @ $6.90
SSM @ 24c
MMS @ $2.48
CCP @ $1.05
NWH @ 50c
Maybe it's you who needs to re-access how you determine value and then how you apply that to investing.

So you sold off most of your stock to freecarry. Hardly ingenious nor worth beating your chest about.

Maybe not but it does let me re-invest the capital while still receiving the benefits from well performing stocks, especially dividend repayments. Certainly better then holding a stock from $3 to 30c.

Let's see how this investment pans out, but I do find it interesting that you hold a stock which goes against everyone of the trading rules that you have preached

lol, stocks don't break trading rules, the trader does. The only trading rule I would apply here is not holding while it dropped from $3 to 30c. But holding while it goes from 30c to $3 is a different matter.

 

[skc]

That's one of the most ridiculous things that I have read. You do not understand value. I suggest you read 'the intelligent investor' by Benjamin Graham. The lower the price gets, the better the bargain providing that all other things are equal. The company is in a better position that at $7.20 or even at IPO stage at arond $2.50 but the price is 30c. Now if the price goes to 15c tomorrow, by your logic the value (bargain) of the company has reduced.

It is these kind of stocks that value investors look our for ie a stock that is trading below adjusted book value (Net Assets + Total R&D spend + Total Marketing spend (Brand) + Value of customer relationships). I come up with over $100m, or about 90c per share.

I've never seen a 'value investor' put a value on R&D spend and marketing... many would simply treat them as sunk cost. Are you sure that's Benjamin Graham's style? I thought he bought share price < cash backing...

Not to mention the fact that total assets including intangibles are only $40m. How can you possibly get $100m?? Are you tallying up all the money that's ever spent by these guys? If that's the case you should invest in MST... they've spent way way more in the last 15 years.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

I've never seen a 'value investor' put a value on R&D spend and marketing... many would simply treat them as sunk cost. Are you sure that's Benjamin Graham's style? I thought he bought share price < cash backing...

Not to mention the fact that total assets including intangibles are only $40m. How can you possibly get $100m?? Are you tallying up all the money that's ever spent by these guys? If that's the case you should invest in MST... they've spent way way more in the last 15 years.

skc,

What you are referring to is book value. This is far too simplistic a way of valuing a company especially when it comes to technology stocks, because after all there is a lot of value that does not sit in the balance sheet. This is why when there are bids for technology companies, they are frequently above the market price. This is not just simply to entice people to sell, but there is a valuation rationale behind this. Companies are valued as what they would cost a competitor to replicate, as well as earning power into the future.

So for the asset based valuation:

1. Book value (net assets or shareholder equity)

+

2. R&D - You are correct that these costs are expensed. This is why they need to be added back into any valuation. Years of research does have a value as does all of the knowledge that has gone into this. How much would it cost to replicate? It is far from reflected in Goodwill. Even if R&D is written back to the balance sheet and depreciated, it would still add substantial asset value, especially when it comes to technology stocks.

+

3. Marketing - How much would a competitor require to build a similar brand? Despite everything that has gone on, SMA actuation technology is becoming more widely known. Some of this can be attributed to TZ. PDT is one of the top 10 design companies in the US. Only some of this will reside in the $20m balance in Intangibles for the whole company. Okay, goodwill is rightly no longer amortized, however there is much of the PDT brand that is not even reflected. The question here is how much would have to be spent on marketing and brand to create another PDT? Substantially more than in the whole $20m Goodwill balance I would say.

Also, another exclusion from the Intangibles balance is the customer rapport. How much are those agreements with Pitney Bowes, Anixter, Microsoft etc actually worth? It would cost a competitor a lot of money to replicate this, and I'm not just talking wining and dining.


= Adjusted Book Value.

This would take us closer to a takeover value of the company, and is where I get my $100m for TZ. However, this can be taken even further with an earnings power factor included. I will leave this out until we have evidence of substantial sales, but with PDT netting about $2m pa, and growing at 25% pa, there can be an argument to include this.

The above is not my opinion, but a fact on how asset based valuations can be done for technology companies.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Except things normally aren't equal when the price gets lower, hence the reason the price is lower.

I think I understand value just fine.
MND @ $6.90
SSM @ 24c
MMS @ $2.48
CCP @ $1.05
NWH @ 50c
Maybe it's you who needs to re-access how you determine value and then how you apply that to investing.



Maybe not but it does let me re-invest the capital while still receiving the benefits from well performing stocks, especially dividend repayments. Certainly better then holding a stock from $3 to 30c.




lol, stocks don't break trading rules, the trader does. The only trading rule I would apply here is not holding while it dropped from $3 to 30c. But holding while it goes from 30c to $3 is a different matter.

Nomore, I hold about 1m shares at an average of well below the current sp. I have traded my way to it, so do not need a lesson from you on trading. My trading strategy has been based around the fundamentals. My tip to you is to open both eyes -t/a and f/a. Profits can be increased substantially. Oh, and another tip is not to assume you know it all.

 

[Slipperz]

I'm quite enjoying this argument :jerry:jerry:jerry

 

[skc]

The above is not my opinion, but a fact on how asset based valuations can be done for technology companies.

Can you please provide a reference to where you read about this valuation methodology?

 

[nomore4s]

My tip to you is to open both eyes -t/a and f/a. Profits can be increased substantially. Oh, and another tip is not to assume you know it all.

Just LMAO, I don't think I need to be taking tips off someone who holds a stock from $4 to 30c thanks.

Just because I haven't seen value while the stock has been falling from $4 to 30c, doesn't mean I'm so pigheaded that I won't take notice when a base looks to be forming and possible signs of a turn around maybe appearing. The problem is it could base around 30c for years or it could fall even further from here so I won't be so pigheaded to admit I've made a mistake and get out if it does. Maybe you need to take your own advice and not assume you know it all.

Nomore, I hold about 1m shares at an average of well below the current sp. I have traded my way to it, so do not need a lesson from you on trading.

I have averaged down since $4, with over half of my shares being acquired around 40cent. I now have close to 1 million shares, at an average of about 60c.

mmm, I'm not sure I believe you as from your post from Aug 2010 that would have been extremely hard to do especially considering it is an illiquid stock that has barely traded under 30c, it also highlights that there is no point discussing the matter any further with you. Good luck with your investment.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Can you please provide a reference to where you read about this valuation methodology?

http://au.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471381985.html

Chapter 7

I've seen it in other places as well but don't spring to mind. Will dig them up if you want.

 

[birdmanz]

Some nice arguments there guys, have to agree with ubi, tz is more advanced than it was when the sp was $4, the market is still nervious to get on board due to it's history. When the current trials (which have been reported as going well) are finalised and concrete orders start flowing in and MB gets on the PR wagon the market may start to take notice.....still speculation but a great spec prospect IMO

 

[prawn_86]

Saw Mark Bouris on SkyBusiness discussing "Digital Lockers", was obvioulsy for TZL but i was only walking past so didnt hear the story.

 

[steamshovel]

TZL about to go.

This stock has burn't a lot of people in the past !
Anyone following it atm ?

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Re: TZL about to go.

This stock has burn't a lot of people in the past !
Anyone following it atm ?

Watching it and loving it. And why shouldnt i?..they are beginning to kick goals from all over the park. Netted me $100 in last months comp too boot

 

[birdmanz]

Re: TZL about to go.

This stock has burn't a lot of people in the past !
Anyone following it atm ?

Anyone who has been following TZ knows why the sp is going up and will keep rising until it reaches fair value....as ubi said they're kicking goals all over the park and are on the verge of commercialisation

I guess those that were burnt by tz were the ones who really didn't belive in the technology, those longtermers that hung in there will be well rewarded IMO

 

[nomore4s]

Re: TZL about to go.

Anyone who has been following TZ knows why the sp is going up and will keep rising until it reaches fair value....as ubi said they're kicking goals all over the park and are on the verge of commercialisation

I guess those that were burnt by tz were the ones who really didn't belive in the technology, those longtermers that hung in there will be well rewarded IMO

And what price is fair value?

There would be plenty of "longtermers" who are still nowhere near getting there money back and there are plenty of new holders with average prices under 35c that are already miles in front.

This is where having a basic understanding of charting and trends is an advantage imo. Those patient enough to wait for signs of a halt to the down-trend and then able to buy-in during the basing stage will be the biggest winners.

 

[skc]

Re: TZL about to go.

Anyone who has been following TZ knows why the sp is going up and will keep rising until it reaches fair value....as ubi said they're kicking goals all over the park and are on the verge of commercialisation

I guess those that were burnt by tz were the ones who really didn't belive in the technology, those longtermers that hung in there will be well rewarded IMO

Based on their Prelim final report they only have $1.15m cash left but they had op cashflow of -$7.2m last year. The last qtrly suggests that they burn $2m in the quarter. Unless they got some large increase in cash receipts they should be out of cash around now?!