TZL - TZ Limited

[UBIQUITOUS]

Re: TZL about to go.

And what price is fair value?

There would be plenty of "longtermers" who are still nowhere near getting there money back and there are plenty of new holders with average prices under 35c that are already miles in front.

And there are some who recognized extreme value at 20c and backed up the truck.
Value investing is the Buffet Way, and who are we to argue?

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Re: TZL about to go.

Based on their Prelim final report they only have $1.15m cash left but they had op cashflow of -$7.2m last year. The last qtrly suggests that they burn $2m in the quarter. Unless they got some large increase in cash receipts they should be out of cash around now?!

Incorrect SKC. See graphic at the bottom. $6.4m at 30/06!!!

With the Next DC contract, I expect that TZ will not need some cash for quite some unless it is for one of those other 2 major contracts that have been signed. Look here:

http://tz.net/sites/tz.net/files/AFR-TZ Has Lock on Growth 1_01.pdf

And if this happens, then the way the share price is going, it will be a VERY positive capital raising at a much higher price.

TZ is the most obviously undervalued stock on the ASX, as per my previous posts....in my humble opinion. Let's see what happens.

 

[nomore4s]

Haven't answered the question of fair value yet?

And there are some who recognized extreme value at 20c and backed up the truck.
Value investing is the Buffet Way, and who are we to argue?

Had to get it right sooner or later, it's funny how you always seem to get the low of the move though.

I have a average price of just over 30c and am happy with that.

 

[skc]

Re: TZL about to go.

Incorrect SKC. See graphic at the bottom. $6.4m at 30/06!!!

Thanks. That's much better. I hate how short term-deposit is classified as investment rather than cash. It has got me before. Evidently I never learn.

Still don't see them as undervalued... I prefer to see profits. But they seem to have progressed to a point where you can possibly call them 'with speculative upside'.

But let's not engage in that debate.

Chart is looking pretty strong without debate.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Haven't answered the question of fair value yet?

You setting me up for another of your infractions again Mr Moderator?
Ok, I'll play a little more.
TZ was trading $2.50 at IPO. Now they have commercialized the technology, I would say that they are worth far in excess of this even taking account the doubling of shares on issue. Of course time will tell.

Had to get it right sooner or later.

Awww, don't be like that.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Re: TZL about to go.

Still don't see them as undervalued... I prefer to see profits. But they seem to have progressed to a point where you can possibly call them 'with speculative upside'.

Is a company signing major contracts with high-profile companies really speculative? This is why the company is now being re-rated...IMO

 

[skc]

Re: TZL about to go.

Is a company signing major contracts with high-profile companies really speculative? This is why the company is now being re-rated...IMO

Investment = We signed a $100m contract and company shown a track record of earning 15% margin on those contracts, and that equates to $x per share.

Speculation = No information disclosed in terms of revenue or profits. It may be a very large number or it may be a lot smaller. If it is large the share price is worth a lot, if it is small the share price is worth not much.

There are no hard numbers on revenue or profits for that 'major' contract from what I've read.

And comparing a company to its IPO price (in 1992?!) is hardly a meaningful thing to engage it...

I said I won't engage in this debate so I shall stick with what I said.

Good luck.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Re: TZL about to go.

CED acquired shares in TZ and was renamed TZ Ltd in 2004. It was in this year that there was a public offering. Considering the new constitution and change in the business, 2004 was the year that an intelligent fastening company had it's IPO.

Looking at 1992 as the IPO year is akin to purchasing a shell company of the shelf which was originally incorporated 50 years previously, and then judging the new company from it's performance over those 50 years. Not the done thing.

TZ was trading at a post-consol price of $2.20 to $2.50 up until late 2007. During this time, TZ had hardly sold any product. And now it trades at 48c while making landmark sales (NextDC). Yes there is a speculative element to the size of deals, but there is nothing speculative by suggesting that TZ is far more undervalued than at any point in it's history considering that they hadn't sold anything remotely significant previously.

 

[birdmanz]

Re: TZL about to go.

And what price is fair value?

IMO....the share price peaked at $7.20 in 2007 when tz were still in the conceptial/trial stage. Now we are seeing real orders and trials with major companies that when named one would assume a further re-rating....if fair value at conceptial stage was $4-5, then considering the progress do date and size of the markets they have entered, fair value should be >$2.50-3, taking into account we now have double the shares on issue.

It does appear after the Sigalla debacle the market is still a little hesident to get into tz until names are named and/or they show some real forecasts/numbers to whet the appetite.....IMO the move in the share price has been moving towards where it should have been and were are on the verge of a re-rating IMO

 

[nomore4s]

Re: TZL about to go.

IMO....the share price peaked at $7.20 in 2007 when tz were still in the conceptial/trial stage. Now we are seeing real orders and trials with major companies that when named one would assume a further re-rating....if fair value at conceptial stage was $4-5, then considering the progress do date and size of the markets they have entered, fair value should be >$2.50-3, taking into account we now have double the shares on issue.

It does appear after the Sigalla debacle the market is still a little hesident to get into tz until names are named and/or they show some real forecasts/numbers to whet the appetite.....IMO the move in the share price has been moving towards where it should have been and were are on the verge of a re-rating IMO

So in other words you have no idea what fair value is.

 

[birdmanz]

Re: TZL about to go.

So in other words you have no idea what fair value is.

we are talking about a technology company with an enormous upside of which none or very little has been factored into the current sp....fair value for PDT alone would be 30-40c.... a technology company such as tz is not measured by profits as you may be alluding to, it's more about potential....so in my mind fair value is 2.50-3.00 right now with the potential of being 10-20 bagger from there in the next few years.....all IMO

i'll still be holding onto most of mine in 5 years from now....i have a friend that bought 400 apple shares and paid AU$7 for them, hasn't taken any profits and still holds all of them at $404ea.......I see tz as having a similar potential in the years to come as I would think many other long term holders do....i guess that's the main reason we held on and hopefully....but now the tide has changed and as MB said in his last announcement shareholders realisations will beging to come true in 2012 (words to that effect)

 

[nomore4s]

Re: TZL about to go.

we are talking about a technology company with an enormous upside of which none or very little has been factored into the current sp....fair value for PDT alone would be 30-40c.... a technology company such as tz is not measured by profits as you may be alluding to, it's more about potential....so in my mind fair value is 2.50-3.00 right now with the potential of being 10-20 bagger from there in the next few years.....all IMO

i'll still be holding onto most of mine in 5 years from now....i have a friend that bought 400 apple shares and paid AU$7 for them, hasn't taken any profits and still holds all of them at $404ea.......I see tz as having a similar potential in the years to come as I would think many other long term holders do....i guess that's the main reason we held on and hopefully....but now the tide has changed and as MB said in his last announcement shareholders realisations will beging to come true in 2012 (words to that effect)

That's fine but has nothing to do with fair value.

Your guess of $2.50-$3 is just that a guess! I also think comparing TZ to Apple is a pretty long bow to draw.

The company has got potential but until it turns that potential into actual profits it is all speculation about what the company could be worth in 2,5,10 years. A lot of thins will need to go right for TZ to be worth $25+.

 

[Chasero]

TZL is really trending upwards.. very interesting to watch.

 

[steamshovel]

Re: TZL about to go.

That's fine but has nothing to do with fair value.

Your guess of $2.50-$3 is just that a guess! I also think comparing TZ to Apple is a pretty long bow to draw.

The company has got potential but until it turns that potential into actual profits it is all speculation about what the company could be worth in 2,5,10 years. A lot of thins will need to go right for TZ to be worth $25+.

This company can just keep selling licence deals into all industries all over the world.

IMO we are just on the cusp of seeing real revenues THIS half, Two deals are done and dusted, they just subjected to confidentiality clauses atm

we have already seen NEXTDC & VTI announced, just don't know what sort of revenue from each deal....
NEXTDC said this.. "The TZ solution is the only system that effectively ticks all those boxs"
VTI said this "It’s the perfect solution for this client and other VTI clients in the same situation.”

Lets just see it get over a $1 then we will look for $2 it may take time but to get to $10-$20 and I may be dead by then, but it will get there !

 

[skc]

Re: TZL about to go.

This company can just keep selling licence deals into all industries all over the world.

IMO we are just on the cusp of seeing real revenues THIS half, Two deals are done and dusted, they just subjected to confidentiality clauses atm

we have already seen NEXTDC & VTI announced, just don't know what sort of revenue from each deal....
NEXTDC said this.. "The TZ solution is the only system that effectively ticks all those boxs"
VTI said this "It’s the perfect solution for this client and other VTI clients in the same situation.”

Lets just see it get over a $1 then we will look for $2 it may take time but to get to $10-$20 and I may be dead by then, but it will get there !

Why don't you just write to the company and request a 20:1 consolidation and you can have your $10 a share before you die. Surely the management would not disregard the dying wish of a long term shareholder.

BTW, have you considered the size of the locker market, the margin available, the competitors etc etc, and hence how large is the profit pool?

My guess is that it is not as big as the Smart phone market (if you really want to compare TZL to Apple ).

 

[steamshovel]

Hi firstly I didn't compare it to apple, secondly the locker market is huge

http://www.bybox.com/

then check out cloud computing data centres

then Aerospace applications

Last I'm happy with a consolidation or a split, but its just a waste of money.

 

[skc]

Hi firstly I didn't compare it to apple

No you didn't so my apologies.

Just that all the supporters here seem to have similar logic.

- IPO price was such and such and we are more advanced now.
- Look how such and such business started from small and became very big.
- Target price 10-20 bagger.
- My faith for holding since last century will be rewarded.

Secondly the locker market is huge

I think those lockers are great and they do solve a problem. The data centre market I am a little bit less sure as security can be achieved in a variety of methods. I am actually interested if anyone knows any hard numbers on the industry. Here's my equation for profit estimation...

Earning multiple x Industry size x profit margin x TZL market share = TZL's share price

Now I can't substitute these terms with "20+ because it's high growth", "huge", "high" and "dominant because they are the best" and arrive at a meaningful number... or if I did the answer will no doubt be "20 bagger".

 

[steamshovel]

Read about NEXTDC deal...
http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...lc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMvcGRmZGVsYXllZC5qc3A=

Bouris said...
"Over the past weeks we’ve been rolling out TZ across Canada, Europe and Australia,” he said."
http://www.techworld.com.au/article/379659/bouris_brings_security_products_local_data_centres/

 

[prawn_86]

Yet another ann without any figures. All well and good to say it "represents a significant opportunity" but just how significant? What prices or margins are they selling for?

Sure, they could sell millions, but if they are selling them at breakeven whats the point in that.

I want some hard numbers so the market can actually value these guys properly not just based on hyperbole

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Yet another ann without any figures. All well and good to say it "represents a significant opportunity" but just how significant? What prices or margins are they selling for?

Sure, they could sell millions, but if they are selling them at breakeven whats the point in that.

I want some hard numbers so the market can actually value these guys properly not just based on hyperbole

For somebody who has written of their investment, you seem awfully annoyed!!!
Just relax and wait for the Half Yearly in Feb - What's another 4 months for somebody that's waited 4 years?