Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

investtrader said:

Trump increased the US national debt by 39% last time in 4 yrs. Why would you believe anything he says.

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Pick your poison. Personally, I'd take the mean tweets and ambit claims over postmodernism and cultural vandalism.

waterbottle said:

Agree RE: dead cat bounces. We haven't had an economic emergency yet, no black Swan, bo emergency cuts, no Lehman brother's moment for a sustained down trend.

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there are plenty of black swans within binocular range though , i am NOT saying 'hide in the bunker '

but stocking that bunker with food , water , fresh blankets and stuff , before the prices go up more ( to unobtainable levels ) sounds like a good investment for your small change

wayneL said:

Pick your poison. Personally, I'd take the mean tweets and ambit claims over postmodernism and cultural vandalism.

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the data has been so twisted and distorted over the last 10 years , i trust nobody and go by gut feel ( and most of the data fails the sniff test , let alone the taste test ) and even then i have a litre of Coke handy in case something foul was still eaten after testing

Trump gives you a glimmer of hope that the landing will only be hard , not an absolute face-plant

but then some prefer certain suicide over a financial crippling ( and a long lingering poverty )

divs4ever said:

the data has been so twisted and distorted over the last 10 years , i trust nobody and go by gut feel ( and most of the data fails the sniff test , let alone the taste test ) and even then i have a litre of Coke handy in case something foul was still eaten after testing

Trump gives you a glimmer of hope that the landing will only be hard , not an absolute face-plant

but then some prefer certain suicide over a financial crippling ( and a long lingering poverty )

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Trump isn't there to help the people, overturning courts and laws to help himself and his cronies, firing complete governments without any forward planning.

I think America is going to get the lesson of its life that you can't run a government like a business.

He talks about wasteful governments but then just blows money at his own will.

If the public had faith in him, they wouldn't be dumping money into gold.




WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s insistence on playing golf at his Florida courses has now cost American taxpayers more than $18 million since he regained the presidency, setting him on a pace to exceed the $151.5 million he spent in his first term, according to a HuffPost analysis.

Both gold and the banks have been very quiet achievers over the last year or so.

The difference is that gold has actually run in response to all this uncertainty/trump stuff whereas banks plummeted along with the rest of the market. I grabbed a tiny bit of it quite a while ago just as one of those pure ultra defensive what-if type of things.

No intention of selling it.


There's even a 3x leveraged gold etn ticker SHNY if anyone's feeling adventurous

over9k said:

Both gold and the banks have been very quiet achievers over the last year or so.

The difference is that gold has actually run in response to all this uncertainty/trump stuff whereas banks plummeted along with the rest of the market. I grabbed a tiny bit of it quite a while ago just as one of those pure ultra defensive what-if type of things.

No intention of selling it.


There's even a 3x leveraged gold etn ticker SHNY if anyone's feeling adventurous

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Now that I did not know that. SHNY eh.

I wonder whether IBKR will allow me trade leveraged Gold products. Just a few kopeks, for a joke, for a laugh, haha ha, on a retracement.




gg

Stagflation effect on Gold prices. Gold went ballistic between 1970 and 1980. $35 in 1970 surging to $850 by 1980. Silver its poorer cousin was $1.77 in 1970 surging to $49.95 an ounce by 1980.

over9k said:

Both gold and the banks have been very quiet achievers over the last year or so.

The difference is that gold has actually run in response to all this uncertainty/trump stuff whereas banks plummeted along with the rest of the market. I grabbed a tiny bit of it quite a while ago just as one of those pure ultra defensive what-if type of things.

No intention of selling it.


There's even a 3x leveraged gold etn ticker SHNY if anyone's feeling adventurous

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Now you tell us, when it's at its height.

I'm still waiting for my gold juniors to explode to the sky.

TimeISmoney said:

I'm still waiting for my gold juniors to explode to the sky.

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from my limited experience .. when

A. they start producing

B. making an after tax profit

but please don't hold your breath waiting

NST bought in February 2013 @ 0.87 cents ( only a single mine back then )

EVN bought in March 2015 @ 74.5 cents

but several other producers have fallen by the wayside when they couldn't sustain a profit ( dud maintenance , fractious governments , bad management )

watch out for the ones that after making a maiden profit , below the money on new leases

TimeISmoney said:

Now you tell us, when it's at its height.

I'm still waiting for my gold juniors to explode to the sky.



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See what's so comical about a 3x leveraged ETN for gold is that gold is basically the most defensive play of all and leveraged ETF's/ETN's are as degen as it gets outside of options. The whole thing is a total contradiction.

If you were betting on a market meltdown traditional wisdom says to just make a short bet against risk assets, a 2x or 3x leveraged inverse ETN like SQQQ or FNGD or whatever.

But curiously, until trump's election, both risk assets and gold had run quite hard, it's only once trump's been elected that the expected result of risk plummeting and gold soaring has occurred. Up until now the run on gold had been totally contradictory.

I can only assume that either some very smart or some very fearful money has just been drip feeding into gold for quite some time and is now just starting to see their play come to fruition.

Chris macintosh from capitalist exploits (that I subscribe to) was talking about this several months ago:


I remember reading one of his newsletters and being a tad dismissive (I bought a bit out of fear rather than thinking I knew something everyone else didn't) but as you can see by looking at the price of gold going back several months it's been a very quiet achiever.

Some very smart money like chris was drip feeding into it then and from my perspective it was just my fearful money but the dude's turned out to be very right about it.

The only rub of things is that the rest of the market has run hard since several months ago and it's only been this trump election that's actually created the divergence you'd normally expect between gold (remember gold is as defensive a play as it gets) and basically everything else.

At the time the markets were actually putting kamala harris as the slight favourite to win so a gold position then would be at least some bet on a harris presidency rather than a trump one.

So yeah. Don't kick yourself for missing it. Chris is a very smart dude but considering how many other variables (like trump actually winning or not) there were at play I think there's been a pretty significant element of luck to his gold position here. Chris himself even stated it was an inflation bet rather than a chaos one.




So yeah. Taking out a 3x leveraged gold position from this point onwards is basically a chaos bet. The more toys trump throws out of the pram the harder it will run.

As for what trump's going to do next, well, I don't think even he knows that. We'll just have to wait and see if the rest of the world's political leaders will be stupid enough to poke the bear any further.

In the meantime, I'm just holding.

And just to further add weight to the chaos/luck argument:

Crypto, the biggest risk asset of all, has gone absolutely mental since trump won. Again, in total contradiction to the slaughter we've seen in the rest of the market.

over9k said:

I can only assume that either some very smart or some very fearful money has just been drip feeding into gold for quite some time and is now just starting to see their play come to fruition.

Chris macintosh from capitalist exploits (that I subscribe to) was talking about this several months ago:


I remember reading one of his newsletters and being a tad dismissive (I bought a bit out of fear rather than thinking I knew something everyone else didn't) but as you can see by looking at the price of gold going back several months it's been a very quiet achiever.

Some very smart money like chris was drip feeding into it then and from my perspective it was just my fearful money but the dude's turned out to be very right about it.

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Even better than that can be found on a site called ASF in the "gold heading " thread. All the info delivered by better than I and it is free. The link is ..


gg

Trump now getting into the foreign aid budgets. South africa's been cut off completely, more countries on the chopping block soon.

over9k said:

Trump now getting into the foreign aid budgets. South africa's been cut off completely, more countries on the chopping block soon.

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and bombing the Houthi

Garpal Gumnut said:

Thanks @IFocus . . Beautiful as your post was I decided to summarise it. You owe me. You owe me big time. Let me know if it is a fair summary. I didn't read your original. I do hope nobody with epilepsy tries to read it. cc. @Dona Ferentes


Danielle Booth argues that the narrative of persistent inflation is disconnected from reality, citing the 2019 FOMC transcripts and current data. She points to falling market-based prices, a slowdown in rent increases, and a decrease in wage inflation as evidence of disinflation. Booth believes that the fear of inflation is perpetuated by fast money hedge funds and latent shock from past price increases.

Inflation is falling, with average weekly earnings decreasing due to shorter workweeks. Job losses are occurring in the lodging sector, with service spending flatlining and personal income declining. This disinflationary pressure, coupled with private sector job cuts and bankruptcies, suggests a potential economic slowdown or recession.

The US economy is facing challenges, including high inflation and a potential recession. While some argue for bold action to address these issues, others caution against potential risks, such as a decline in the stock market and increased unemployment. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve faces a difficult decision regarding interest rates, balancing the needs of different economic groups and the potential impact on the overall economy.

Danielle DM Booth invites listeners to her Substack and Qiresearch.com for her research and institutional entree. She emphasises her unbiased approach, providing data for listeners to make informed decisions.

gg

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Sincere thanks GG the post was a cluster unfortunately I am in the far remote reaches of NSW (central coast) with only a phone and 1bar Telstra coverage couldn’t edit the article cheers

over9k said:

Trump now getting into the foreign aid budgets. South africa's been cut off completely, more countries on the chopping block soon.

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Trump sent a questionnaire to the Aussie universities, asking whether they should cut off research funding to us or not.

TimeISmoney said:

Trump sent a questionnaire to the Aussie universities, asking whether they should cut off research funding to us or not.

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i thought it was asking how their money was being spent.

over9k said:

Trump now getting into the foreign aid budgets. South africa's been cut off completely, more countries on the chopping block soon.

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awesome , the Chinese , Indians and Russians will quickly fill that vacuum in South Africa , more likely with real goods and services , slashing the 'middle-men' and other apparatchiks , maybe even Iran and Indonesia will find some attractive investments

Dona Ferentes said:

i thought it was asking how their money was being spent.

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It seems you need to align political views with Trump.

SYDNEY, March 13 (Reuters) - Australia’s top universities said on Thursday the Trump administration had cut U.S. funding to some of its researchers and asked others who receive U.S. government financial support to prove their work was aligned with American interests.

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TimeISmoney said:

It seems you need to align political views with Trump.

SYDNEY, March 13 (Reuters) - Australia’s top universities said on Thursday the Trump administration had cut U.S. funding to some of its researchers and asked others who receive U.S. government financial support to prove their work was aligned with American interests.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-top-universities-say-us-funding-risk-due-trump-crackdown-2025-03-13/

​

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very likely such was the case when the previous government was in power , but they had a different focus than the interests of a stronger America , more likely chasing green unicorn dreams

besides most universities are so bought serious scientists move overseas with their discoveries and patents