prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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Trading the Aussie200
- Thread starter DialecticBlue
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>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Certainly hope so, and for what it is worth, that is my opinion also. At this time, until the market tells me otherwise. I will use the hourly chart and trend lines to manage the trade, with due nervousness near resistance.
Helped last night by the 7:30 Report John Clarke/Bryon Dawe being so gloomy and predicting the end of the economic world. When the talking heads are gloomy it is generally time to be optimistic.
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
Helped last night by the 7:30 Report John Clarke/Bryon Dawe being so gloomy and predicting the end of the economic world. When the talking heads are gloomy it is generally time to be optimistic.
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Well I'm certainly not ruling out that possibility.
Just that its going to take a while to take hold.
Life rafts are being launched as quick as they can,they have to run out before armageddon.
Any rally is likely to be short lived.
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I agree, I'm going to nurse this one like a nervous kitten
I think there are still some surprises in there.
W5 is a looming & ever present threat from the long side.
I think there are still some surprises in there.
W5 is a looming & ever present threat from the long side.
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Added to the US30 position this morning. That will be the last increase, I will now manage the trade - 12,547
The US news was good - housing and BS
All this optimism means a nasty surprise to test nerves - but I think momentum may build.
I will add to the Assie200 today, probably at the end of day.
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
The US news was good - housing and BS
All this optimism means a nasty surprise to test nerves - but I think momentum may build.
I will add to the Assie200 today, probably at the end of day.
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
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If you take the % rise of the Dow, then,depending on where you measure it from, the Assie200 should end up around 5400.
Added to the position - 5365 on that basis, rather than see what the day had in store - although I can't see any basis for another sinking day
still .................????????
just cleaned up after the next door neigbours mutt - now 5337 (low, so far, 5327)
and showing some signs of life - but not much. Oh well, it also could have over-shot the mark.
Watchin the 5400 resistance area
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
Added to the position - 5365 on that basis, rather than see what the day had in store - although I can't see any basis for another sinking day
still .................????????
just cleaned up after the next door neigbours mutt - now 5337 (low, so far, 5327)
and showing some signs of life - but not much. Oh well, it also could have over-shot the mark.
Watchin the 5400 resistance area
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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This is exactly what I meant about trading without an edge.
Do you know the statistical probability of the above trade?? That is buy the open on strength.
A quick back test of the last 3 months where you buy the open when the SPI has gaped greater than 1% from the previous days close (4:30)
By the end of the day you would have had 9 losers and only 6 winners!! but even worse the total number of points you would end up with on these 15 trades is a massive negative 460 points.
If you make the filter a gap greater than 1.5% its even worse only 3 winners and 6 losers but a total of negative 300 lost!! And that's only saved by one day being up 249 points, a very unusual day!
As every Index trader knows except you its better to fade these gaps rather than run with them. Even if you are looking at a longer term it makes no sense to buy the open. If you take the first test and hold until the close three days later again a total of negative 614 points!!
NO TRADING EDGE!!
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TremblingHand - Thanks, I actually appreciate that post
I didn't buy on strength, I bought because the open was way below what I calculated was the probable rise for the day.
Then, to add insult to injury, I added to the position when it broke out of that long consilidation - 5 minute. 5332 (not good psychology I grant you, I just had the s...s and could see no reason for the market to be where I had calculated)
If it had of fallen below that consolidation I would have exited the entire position to see what the afternoon held and whether the US30 was still holding - not that that tells you much at that time
I am playing with 'their' money now, so I am quite relaxed about losing some of it.
I will exit the 5332 trade this afternoon as it has taken me over my comfort zone and was not a considered trade
Yes, I am buying for a trade that I expect to be in for around 2/3 days.
I am aware that you regard this as seat of the pants trading. I used to do my aerobatics that way. One of my instructors, who was more 'fluid' in his approach, quite liked it as it was smoother. Another one couldn't stand it and wanted clear clean execution. I also don't seem to get on terribly well with engineers.
Consider this thread as a lesson in what not to do.
Either that, or interest will fade and so will it
Once again, thanks for your comment. I do not disagree.
Finally, all this is so far within my risk tolerance that it is just something to occupy me while I write.
1:32 5351 and falling, minor resistance at 5344 (5 minutes), wonder if it will hold
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it. It is, after all, highly personal to my psychology and bank account
I didn't buy on strength, I bought because the open was way below what I calculated was the probable rise for the day.
Then, to add insult to injury, I added to the position when it broke out of that long consilidation - 5 minute. 5332 (not good psychology I grant you, I just had the s...s and could see no reason for the market to be where I had calculated)
If it had of fallen below that consolidation I would have exited the entire position to see what the afternoon held and whether the US30 was still holding - not that that tells you much at that time
I am playing with 'their' money now, so I am quite relaxed about losing some of it.
I will exit the 5332 trade this afternoon as it has taken me over my comfort zone and was not a considered trade
Yes, I am buying for a trade that I expect to be in for around 2/3 days.
I am aware that you regard this as seat of the pants trading. I used to do my aerobatics that way. One of my instructors, who was more 'fluid' in his approach, quite liked it as it was smoother. Another one couldn't stand it and wanted clear clean execution. I also don't seem to get on terribly well with engineers.
Consider this thread as a lesson in what not to do.
Either that, or interest will fade and so will it
Once again, thanks for your comment. I do not disagree.
Finally, all this is so far within my risk tolerance that it is just something to occupy me while I write.
1:32 5351 and falling, minor resistance at 5344 (5 minutes), wonder if it will hold
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it. It is, after all, highly personal to my psychology and bank account
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god knows why you would be looking for longs on ~190 point gap
it's short or nothing at all imo...
it's short or nothing at all imo...
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That's why the market goes up and down
Just exited all the trades. If the market surges into the close then so be it.
Assie200 5344 and US30 12,542
Why change my mind?
Strong resistance at 5400 Aussie200 and 12680 US30 gives little up-side
Two strong up days US30, and a fizzer of a day Assie200.
So, I would rather book the profit and see if it travels cleanly through those two resistance areas
There will still be plenty of profit if it does.
I have to agree with everyone who thinks the US will contine to go up. I just decided that the resistance ceiling was too close
Hope you all make a motza tonight
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
Just exited all the trades. If the market surges into the close then so be it.
Assie200 5344 and US30 12,542
Why change my mind?
Strong resistance at 5400 Aussie200 and 12680 US30 gives little up-side
Two strong up days US30, and a fizzer of a day Assie200.
So, I would rather book the profit and see if it travels cleanly through those two resistance areas
There will still be plenty of profit if it does.
I have to agree with everyone who thinks the US will contine to go up. I just decided that the resistance ceiling was too close
Hope you all make a motza tonight
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Hi, is the market more predictable now?A rise one day and fall the next.If so a big short on the aussie 200 would be put in - take out.Yes!
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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I can't remember where I read it today -- some bigshot in the US is asking the banks to come clean and get it over with.
Don't want to be around when that happens
Of course, if you click on the link that Trembling Hand posted just a couple of posts up, then the sub-prime could just be the tip of the iceberg
Also, on the ABC Newsite - Greenspan is saying how this is the worst financial crisis since WWII
Which would be funny if it wasn't so annoying, since he caused it in my opinion.
He now advises a hedge fund. Is he talking the market down to set the hedge fund up for a long position.
Finally, as to today, I was looking for a surge through 5400 which was possible if the ASX had come out of the blocks sprinting [hence my position this morning, usually I prefer to wait until the end of day, unless I don't] and a strong close. The market had all the momentum of a wet bunger.
So, out and wait.
I'm not taking a short position because there is also a strong argument for the US deciding to get on with it tonight or sometime this week
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
Don't want to be around when that happens
Of course, if you click on the link that Trembling Hand posted just a couple of posts up, then the sub-prime could just be the tip of the iceberg
Also, on the ABC Newsite - Greenspan is saying how this is the worst financial crisis since WWII
Which would be funny if it wasn't so annoying, since he caused it in my opinion.
He now advises a hedge fund. Is he talking the market down to set the hedge fund up for a long position.
Finally, as to today, I was looking for a surge through 5400 which was possible if the ASX had come out of the blocks sprinting [hence my position this morning, usually I prefer to wait until the end of day, unless I don't] and a strong close. The market had all the momentum of a wet bunger.
So, out and wait.
I'm not taking a short position because there is also a strong argument for the US deciding to get on with it tonight or sometime this week
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
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Need to be dynamic and respond to the market
Beware of mind set in one direction
Cognitive dissonance is out to get you
I thought I would have a look at what was going on.
The headline for Marketwatch is - 'Europe Roars'. I thought, oh well, completely got that one wrong.
Alan Kholer on the ABC News had been breathless with excitement telling us that the ASX had doubled the DOW rise. Really? He omitted to mention the massive rise on Thursday night which triggered it. I double checked my numbers and I still reckon that a comparable rise on the Assie200 would have been at least 5400 -5480. In other words, cleanly breaking through the resistance and finishing at the top for the day. It has now faded to 5324 and the DOW30 has faded to 12,517.
The UK100 having shot to 5700 has faded to 5672 and is obviously waiting for a lead from the Dow
So, it is possible that it was the mouse that roared.
If the rise last night has sucked in traders looking for the bounce, then up goes the Dow. But it has had two healthy rises in a row, so the odds are diminishing for a 3rd one and both the US30 and the Aussie200 are bumping up against strong resistance.
If you had noticed my post on Gold a while back (this thread), I suggested a fall to around the 900 was possible - it fell to 906. While I see no evidence that the Dow intends to roar, gold certainly is, and is now 930. If my analysis is correct it will go past the 1,000 on this leg. And, sometime in the next 5 years, one once of gold will buy the S&P500.
Which all means a monstor rally on the Dow tonight, because I'm stepping aside.
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
Beware of mind set in one direction
Cognitive dissonance is out to get you
I thought I would have a look at what was going on.
The headline for Marketwatch is - 'Europe Roars'. I thought, oh well, completely got that one wrong.
Alan Kholer on the ABC News had been breathless with excitement telling us that the ASX had doubled the DOW rise. Really? He omitted to mention the massive rise on Thursday night which triggered it. I double checked my numbers and I still reckon that a comparable rise on the Assie200 would have been at least 5400 -5480. In other words, cleanly breaking through the resistance and finishing at the top for the day. It has now faded to 5324 and the DOW30 has faded to 12,517.
The UK100 having shot to 5700 has faded to 5672 and is obviously waiting for a lead from the Dow
So, it is possible that it was the mouse that roared.
If the rise last night has sucked in traders looking for the bounce, then up goes the Dow. But it has had two healthy rises in a row, so the odds are diminishing for a 3rd one and both the US30 and the Aussie200 are bumping up against strong resistance.
If you had noticed my post on Gold a while back (this thread), I suggested a fall to around the 900 was possible - it fell to 906. While I see no evidence that the Dow intends to roar, gold certainly is, and is now 930. If my analysis is correct it will go past the 1,000 on this leg. And, sometime in the next 5 years, one once of gold will buy the S&P500.
Which all means a monstor rally on the Dow tonight, because I'm stepping aside.
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
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Need to be dynamic and respond to the market
Beware of mind set in one direction
Cognitive dissonance is out to get you!
just goes to show
after all that pontificating the market showed the way
minutes after the last post it took off
so took a position in the Aussie200 at 5440 and the US30 at 12,586
The main lesson is that I got too close to the market today and got caught by the noise. Still think a bit more effort could have been put into the ASX
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
Beware of mind set in one direction
Cognitive dissonance is out to get you!
just goes to show
after all that pontificating the market showed the way
minutes after the last post it took off
so took a position in the Aussie200 at 5440 and the US30 at 12,586
The main lesson is that I got too close to the market today and got caught by the noise. Still think a bit more effort could have been put into the ASX
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Isn`t that emotion or self?Like i`m right and the majority are wrong.
No one gets it right all the time.Is that acceptable.
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Basically, my take on cognative dissonance -- when you have a belief in your head, ie: the market is going to go up, and you then filter out all news that says it will go down and take in all news that says it will go up. Plus, we tend to distort information to fit into our own belief. In effect, you see what you want to see, what fits into the belief that is in your head.
So, you have to try to be as objective as you can.
When the market blipped a while ago I became very human and took the trade as on the one hand I think the resistance areas will stop it but on the other hand all the news i& logic is up.
It then went back down, which triggered a couple of tight SL's I had in. I am too unsure to let it run this time. fortunately I made a profit on the Aussie200 which all but off-set the loss on the US30.
I suspect it is a fake out.
trade well, i'm out of here to watch that movie on the Stones - 'stoned' to see what I missed - might keep an eye on the open at the same time
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
So, you have to try to be as objective as you can.
When the market blipped a while ago I became very human and took the trade as on the one hand I think the resistance areas will stop it but on the other hand all the news i& logic is up.
It then went back down, which triggered a couple of tight SL's I had in. I am too unsure to let it run this time. fortunately I made a profit on the Aussie200 which all but off-set the loss on the US30.
I suspect it is a fake out.
trade well, i'm out of here to watch that movie on the Stones - 'stoned' to see what I missed - might keep an eye on the open at the same time
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
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DOW
Was that the pause that refreshes, or has it bumped its head?
Was that the pause that refreshes, or has it bumped its head?
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last post on this thread
I have taken a short position at 5408. I believe that it is in a tight wedge of a trend line and a resistance at 5411
US30 will hit a similar wedge at around 12,740
gold has been good
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
I have taken a short position at 5408. I believe that it is in a tight wedge of a trend line and a resistance at 5411
US30 will hit a similar wedge at around 12,740
gold has been good
Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.
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