Trading the Aussie200

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Ok guys thought I would put away the Real market(SPI) for a moment and hit a couple of these dodgy CFD index trades, just to show that I'm not a complete idiot that doesn't actual trade just criticize. As far as many ways to skin a cat, I'm a very active scalper, will often do a % or two of the SPI market up to lunch then go on to the HSI. Any way 15 minutes 9 trades 6 points X 50 contracts, which sucks if that was the SPI it would of been closer to 12 but that @ market + spread is there for a reason(take your money)

 

[Mike Trader]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

I have been trading the XJO200 with CFD's for over a year now and I am getting quite good with it, so I thought I would let you know what I am doing each time I make a trade. This will either continue or I will make a complete fool of myself. Here's to putting them on the chopping block.

After sitting on the sidelines and wishing I had ridden the last wave down from 5600, where I had exited at around 5580 because I thought a significant resistance had been reached at around 5754 and there had been 4 days of rises which are inevitably followed by a pause or a drop, I put my toe in for a long position at 5158 [no kidding] and rode that 400 price rise up.

Then I looked on in diss-belief at most of it fritter away yesterday. Then this morning I got up early to see with the US was doing and it had done the same bloody thing - so time to bail out with around 20% of the intial profit intact and see what today held on the XJO. So far down, good decision.

Note that the last three significant pushes up in both the DOW and the ASX have been clobberd. Note also, that a lot of the 400 increase was probably short selling. Note also price of petrol which will impact on consumer confidence which will impact on company profits.

Gotta figure that the chances of one more Elliot wave leg down is on the cards. Gotta remember not to fight the trend. Which I have done the last couple of times. BUT, the US did hold most of its gains last night, and it may just get on with it for what will probably be another sucker bounce.

The trouble with short positions at the moment is they we have implused so far down.

So, I'm gonna see what today holds on the ASX and maybe dip my toe into the US tonight for what is possibley and even money gamble for another rise.

My general trading demeanour

Hi ,I have found ,after trialling some of the cfd Xjo's I have found some have a tendency to jump around quite a bit-more so than the actual futures contract(which I trade)
due to ,I think , a lower volume-since there is no volume shown for most of these cfds ,this market is open to fluctuations by scalping small moves with lots of contracts since they seem to be at a premium up or down ,even to the futures contract,taking out wide stops quite regularly (I'm talking intraday.)Has anyone noticed this phenomena?Or am I imagining it?I just find the full contract more predictable.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Ok guys thought I would put away the Real market(SPI) for a moment and hit a couple of these dodgy CFD index trades, just to show that I'm not a complete idiot that doesn't actual trade just criticize. As far as many ways to skin a cat, I'm a very active scalper, will often do a % or two of the SPI market up to lunch then go on to the HSI. Any way 15 minutes 9 trades 6 points X 50 contracts, which sucks if that was the SPI it would of been closer to 12 but that @ market + spread is there for a reason(take your money)

Hi hand, smee again, checked your trades out and with a 2 point spread on the aussie 200 you only had 2 winning trades and the rest were losses or break even.Shorts #105402157 & 105402432 were the winning trades.Is this the way you see the trades shown?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Hi hand, smee again, checked your trades out and with a 2 point spread on the aussie 200 you only had 2 winning trades and the rest were losses or break even.Shorts #105402157 & 105402432 were the winning trades.Is this the way you see the trades shown?

no. -2,0,0,1-2,5,0,3,1

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

no. -2,0,0,1-2,5,0,3,1

Oh o.k. no spread on the aussie 200 with your service provider.All clear now.Thankyou.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Oh o.k. no spread on the aussie 200 with your service provider.All clear now.Thankyou.

No there is a spread, 2 points, but they are the prices that the trades where executed at. CFDs suck for short term trades as you have to always get over that spread then sell at market. Just to get a scratch trade you need it to go 2 points in your favour. On the Futures if you can work the spread that would of been a 2 or 3 point winner.

 

[happyjack]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Great stuff Blue, keep it coming, I think some people have seen your name and decided that it is OK to be rude, they don't realise that it is possible to disagree politely. looking forward to anything you may have to say about a change in platform.
Happyjack

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

re - trades

gotta start somewhere, and I am not trying to sell or prove anything, just increasing my knowledge and indulging in my small trading 'habit'.

I suppose from what I have seen here and over time that everyone has to find their own trading method which suites their psychology.

It was a good winning trade until the exit and 5656. I kept 82 or the 400 Dow rise and lost 34 of it last night. Went in at 5207 this morning and will see what the Dow does tonight.

I am not particularly interested in sitting and trading all day, scalping the 5 or less minute. I find it tedious and do not need to make the money, so why bother. I hasten to add, I am not knocking it, it just isn't for me.

But, I do spend most of my time at the screen writing, so a glance at the trading platform is not so difficult. I try to limit it to open, 11:30, 2:30, 3:30 and the occassional glance after closing.

Overall, I am up after this years trading, but it has taken a few years to be consistent. That, of course, could cease as of now, particularly in this uncertain and choppy environment.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

4:02

I will hold over-night and exit at the DOW close of trade tomorrow morning. Call it insurance.

On the hourly - resistance at 5220 and wrong below the triple bottom at 5100, hopefully it will act as support. But, if I put the SL too close then there is bound to be a push through before any turn around. So will put the SL at 5007 only to prevent complete meltdown over-night which so far I have managed to avoid, partly though good management and un-doubtably partly through luck. Still reckon we are in for a rally of some sort.

haveagoodweekend

Dialecticblue

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

That was interesting. Got up and decided to break the insurance rule and add to my position, 5118. Stubborn or stupid, time will tell. Notice how it bounced of the resistance of 5100 for most of the time and then had a spike down to around 5078. So, if I had set my SL at 5080, a logical place, it would have been stopped out. For sure, with CMC, hence market makers and tight SL's are deadly.

Why add? 5100 has now been bounced off for a while and it goes back to the Jan 22nd low spike. So, the bounce scenario on the ASX is still a reasonable assumption, and will not be invalidated until a clean break below 5100.

The US30 tanked to around 11,846, scurried up, then tanked again to 11,846, or thereabouts, then scurried up to finish around 11970. Bear-Sterns was a bummer, and if it is the sign of things to come, then we are in for a drubbing. But, that is the last thing the Fed wants and we may see a whopping .75 basis point cut this week. Risk reward - near a clear resistance line which gives a clear exit point, .75 cut and possible another 400 pointer.

Insurance is OK, but there is no need to be silly about it.

Some answers to points in the blog:

1. My trading is based on a a few things, overt and internalised, but I suppose if you want to put a label on it, you could try a version of swing trading. With a close eye on the 200 Day moving average and any clear Candle Sticks - note the first trade I talked about was signaled by a clear resistance line - on the daily - and a clear shooting star. Well, on the CMC platform, at least.
2. I only trade the Assie200 cause I figured that I only need to trade one thing really well, and consitantly, to do well. I used to get all excited after a few good trades and look for whatever I could find to capitilise on my genius. Invevitably there would be a correction and I would be too highly exposed - mainly for my psychololgy rather than wallet, I am a not a gambler at heart - so I would bail out, cut my losses and sulk for a while. I noticed that I was right more than I was wrong, but I was losing money. Why? I needed to keep my losses/potential losses well within a psychological limit. Some people could risk 100% of their capital and sleep well at night. I found I can risk less than 1% of my capital and sleep well at night. So, last night I couldn't really care less what happened, and that is just what you need to be a successful trader, I believe. I then could back my judgement and add to the position because it cannot possibly effect me financially.
3. The Assie200/XJO because I can go to sleep at night with a SL and not wake up to a massive move. That has become less imperative now that my trading capital is so conservative. I geuss I just feel more in control. Also, the 200 stocks tend to smooth things out a bit.
4. I will try to be accurate with the trades, but frankly, I didn't think anyone would be interested and I really don't take this all that seriously.

DialecticBlue


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[treefrog]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

I noticed that I was right more than I was wrong, but I was losing money. Why? I needed to keep my losses/potential losses well within a psychological limit. Some people could risk 100% of their capital and sleep well at night. I found I can risk less than 1% of my capital and sleep well at night.

good point blue - traders call it the wall - the level of funds staked at which you no longer trade effectively

for some its moving off a very impressive demo a/c into real money of any level - for others its moving into highly margined trades where they are unable to handle even one lot (100k for a 1k stake), and others just moving from pocket money into risking their real wealth - regardless of their money management system

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

10:23 - Assie200 - 5174

The trade ain't over till the fat lady sings

I'll have a look at 3:30 and see what the close has in store.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

4:10 Assie200 5093 I will hold to see what the Fed have in store. A large interest rate cut is anticipated by the market, so it is unlikely to have a massive impact. Could even diss-appoint.

 

[happyjack]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Hi Blue
The UK 100 index opened at 5600 and immediately fell like a brick to 5520. did you notice, CMC have moved their spread to 4 points instead of 2 on the Aussie ?

Happyjack

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Hi Blue
The UK 100 index opened at 5600 and immediately fell like a brick to 5520. did you notice, CMC have moved their spread to 4 points instead of 2 on the Aussie ?

Happyjack CMC tracks the SPI Bid/Ask in the overnight session. And that can have anything up to 20 points spread at times. A 4 point spread on the overnight is not that bad a spread.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

All prices are from the CMC Trading Platfrorm

2:30pm 5160 Let's see what happens this afternoon

Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

I`m lost dialectic blue.So you are still long Aussie 200 cash in at 5160 (increased exposure at 5118) with a stop loss at 5007.

So will put the SL at 5007 only to prevent complete meltdown over-night

Even with one $25 contract that stop loss is a fair bit of breathing space.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

I`m lost dialectic blue.So you are still long Aussie 200 cash in at 5160 (increased exposure at 5118) with a stop loss at 5007.



Even with one $25 contract that stop loss is a fair bit of breathing space.

I thought the same thing.

There is no way I would EVER accept a $2500+ loss on the SPI, no matter what time frame. Utter nonsense.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Utter nonsense.

That just about sums it up Chops.

Trading without an edge, no risk management, no care for correct execution, no logical stop, averaging down, all the works of a real trader

Yes I'm negative but I can only hope that someone starting out trading doesnt think this is the way to trade an index.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

All that detail

Aussie200 - 10:28am 5085

Fat lady is still singing.

Yep, still in there to see what will happen tonight.

I know there are a lot of fancy theories, but it is really about managing the trade within your own psychological profile & capital.

I do that OK fellas, and I sleep at night, and I ain't goona to, nor do I have to, sit here staring at the screen all day. See ya at 3:30

And yes, I still allow my psychology to get the better of me at times and make a silly trade or SL setting, but never to any real cost, just a minor fiscal irriation.

SL's are an interesting subject. I tend to think of them as Stop Profits as everyone can see where they are and the big guys take them out for a laugh. So, where to set them is a matter of personal risk profile or sitting in front of the screen, which is extremely tedious.

Yes, I was trading the Assie200 one morning after I found a lag between the US30 and the Aussie200. I was doing quite well until the spreads went out as far as 25 at one stage. Must get off my butt and sign in with a market taker.



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it. (not that it would appear that anyone is ........... which is sensible of them)

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

4:24 - Aussie200 5094 - within the support 5100 and resistance band 5200 - for those who like to state the obvious, 5094 is close enough, and it is now 4:36 Assie200 closed at 5101. US30 is bouncing along at around the close, not that that seems to mean much.

We all wait on the Fed it seems.

Why assume I have risked 2,500 and why assume that it is of concern to me?

Risk is a matter of % of capital you are happy to lose. For some that is $25, for others $250 for others $2,500. Packer used to bet millions on a race horse. He could afford it so he lost no sleep.

The 2 mistakes I made of late are 1. not trading the short side of the first trade, however I thought we were probably headed for a brief corretion. Wrong! 2. Looking at the US market before going to bed and being spooked by the news [which lags, not leads]. Should have stayed in.

I see trading as a continuous ride until profitability can be achieved or I am proven definitely wrong. I don't see it as a series of snap shots dictated by rigid rules. Trade within your risk profile and capital allows that approach.

At the moment the risks are on the downside - bank problems - but the market wants to go up as it is too far from the mean.




My disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.