Trading the Aussie200

[treefrog]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

4:24
We all wait on the Fed it seems.

I see trading as a continuous ride until profitability can be achieved or I am proven definitely wrong. I don't see it as a series of snap shots dictated by rigid rules. Trade within your risk profile and capital allows that approach.

At the moment the risks are on the downside - bank problems - but the market wants to go up as it is too far from the mean.

agree DB, but the longer it sits in this consolidation area the % increases for more downside
not so sure about hanging it all on the financials - two sectors that have been supporting the XAO since Nov (energy and materials) are both looking very ordinary on the current weekly charts

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Yes, I agree TF

The more it travels sideways the more the risk of a break-out become 50:50

I also agree that Fin and Materials looking sick but both have reasons to bounce around a little for a correction. ??????????

But, unless there is more banking bad news, the Fed will want to see the Dow head north. The traders know that, so it is probable that no matter what the Fed announce, the market will go down, to shake out the long positions.

That should be short lived and reverse for the reversion to the mean - I use a 200 day moving average.

bloody hope so

Assie200 5,114 with upward momentum (back in the game). Dow30 quite perky. UK100 with a nice gap they must want to fill (once again, bloody hope so)

All of which probably means a stab down to test nerves.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

7:38 - see, slept OK, didn't even wake up before the DOW closed

so, the Dow surprised by not doing anything surprising

bugger, thought of adding to the position last night, but didn't have the balls

Assie200 - 5,248 -- hope the fat lady stays in her dressing room this time

3rd time lucky? I will look at adding this afternoon.

Mulled a little over the reference to trading on the edge. That I supose means risking a loss that would hurt financially. You might, I don't.

I traded last night without a SL (gasp, horror), forgot frankly. I place them so far away that it is only for a meldown. And, did you see the f'n great spike down early in the day (US) which had to be the deliberate feint I always bang on about. Imagine waking up to a 400 point rise on the Dow and you had been stopped out just before. Well, I don't have to imagine. That is why I developed this trading strategy which is fluid rather than static.

I can trade without a SL and still sleep-in because it is well within my psychological risk profile. The Dow could have gone down 1,000 points, a 500/600 point loss on the ASX and the effect on me would have been to go, 'bugger' and drink St Henri tomorrow night instead of Grange.

That's a new take, eh?


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

GOLD

[prices from CMC Marketmaker Daily]

from breakout 676 we have 1, 2, th,th three, a lovely shooting star.

50% retrace of 2 - 3 = 900 which formed a nice triangle on the way up.

????????????????

 

[tech/a]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

So long at 5160.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Mulled a little over the reference to trading on the edge. That I supose means risking a loss that would hurt financially. You might, I don't.

Your a funny man!! You don't even know what you don't know.

A trading edge is information, statistical or historical proven advantage.

It doesnt refer to how big your balls are.

The fact that you are trading $1 per tick insy winsy contract would suggest that you have no edge. Or you would be trade something of value. How are you ever going to trade the real market thing at $25 per tick as you have suggested hanging on and averaging down 200 odd points.

But well done we will be up today and you will be back in the money.
Maybe Ben can cut again tonight and you will be able to afford a hot chocolate for Easter. Not so sure about the St Henri or Grange

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

you're going to love this

400/2= 200

5100 + 200 = 5300

Lessons from last couple of times, ASX goes up about 50% of the Dow increase. Any increase afte that is statistically improbable.

Thought I would see if it would get on with it, so put in a SL at 5280 and was duly hit, 10:23

I still think the ASX will get on with it, but I want to see the end of trading today, or very strong momentum

sleep well


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

I have three sayings [among others] above the screen - which apply to trading and life -- 'Mind set in one direction'; 'Need to be dynamic and respond to the market'; Cognative dissonance is out to get you'

Dow30 ?? Elliot Wave:14,140 - 12,736 = W1; 12,736 - 13,742 = W2;

13742 -11460 = w3; very complex w4, say 12,747.

wave 5 can't be the longest, so the max (w3) takes us to 10,465. Allow 66% = 11,241

10,465 - 11,241 takes us to a double bottom in June - Aug 2007


Aussie200 ??= Elliot Wave: 1 6,847 - 6,326 = W1; 6,326 - 6,731 = W2;

6,731 - 5258 = W3 (bugger, wished I'd traded that, mind set in one direction!); W4 complex - 5258 - 6020, but I prefer 5780, the top of the consolidation - the other was a spike.

wave 5 can't be the longest so the max (w3) takes us to 4,307. Allow 66% = 4808.

4800 coresponds to a base formed in June - Oct 2007

So, having wriggled out of the last trade for a profit, do I now trade this potential w5 and go against the fed and the reversion to the mean.

?????????????? something to think about

And no I am not warranting any of the above as accurate, but the gist is sound, I think.

Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Your a funny man!! You don't even know what you don't know.

And here is an example.

wave 5 can't be the longest

Of course it can.
You need to learn Elliott if your going to attempt to apply it.
In indexes it often is!


Try downloading Print key 2000 then Photobucket so you can post charts.
That way you may make more sense.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

yes, should check more carefully

wave 3 can't be the shortest. The rest hangs OK around that, but I don't pretend to be an Ellito Wave expert, it is just something to think about.

fella's, I'm just posting them as I see them. The disclaimer says it all and I ain't trying to sell nothing.


trade well

 

[prawn_86]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Please note that I have changed the title of this thread to "Aussie200" instead of XJO, so everybody knows that it is a CFD product rather than actual futures.

 

[waz]

Very unusual, the aussie has been trading extremely flat for the last hour.

Volatility is normally our friend when trading the aussie.

 

[julius]

Not through lunch Waz...volume picks up after ~2pm

 

[DialecticBlue]

Prawn 86 -I agree and will do so, but not until tomorrow morning.

4:03 - Aussie200 5203 Dow30 - 12,387

both flat, hmmmm

The Fed has shot its bolt, I think. Another massive interest rate cut would seem desparate. Actually, this one was, but what the heck. Bernanke is fighting the 1930's depression of which he is an expert [expert, a drip under pressure]. All that free money and no-ones wants to borrow it. Bastards.

It's just that he doesn't have a clue what to do with this one which appears to be developing rapidly.

They are actually opening the Fed window to the brokers such as Bear-Sterns. If you follow that logic, they will soon be lending to the sub-prime defaulters - hello mrs jackson, yes we do take your used dildos as security.

'mind set in one direction'; need to be dynamic ....

I will wait out the Dow overnight, don't think there is much chance of a follow through - and don't care if there is.

I will wait for a shorting opportunity for the leg 5 I can't identify.

At around 5400 where there is a trend line.

Might break another rule and have ago at the Dow30 as well.



very much -- Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[DialecticBlue]

7:08 - jeez, you'd think they could have got on with it for a couple of days

if you looked at the US30 chart you would have seen a steady climb until the announcment - I assume, as I was asleep and I couldn't be bothered looking up the time - then a sharp spike down, then a relatively small rise which was all but wiped out by 11pm Aus time. The ASX held the morning gain, but did not show any signs of real interest. Last night was going to tell us, and it did.

Assie200 5206

probably worth a short over easter, with any luck some American Bank will go belly up.

gold is behaving well



Another quote from my wall --- 'but remember, if you a clinician you know when somebody sounds crazy it usually means you're not smart enought to figure it out.'



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Please note that I have changed the title of this thread to "Aussie200" instead of XJO, so everybody knows that it is a CFD product rather than actual futures.

XJO is not the futures Prawn. XJO is the cash market. the SPI is the futures.

sorry to be picky

 

[DialecticBlue]

no one's going to believe it, but

last night I was mulling over the reaction to the Fed Actions and I came to the conclusion that it was not logical in the short term. It was more a reflex response, helped no doubt by the big money which you always have to 2nd guess. Easter was looming and no-one in Aus was prepared to ‘bet’ on what the US would do last night. So they went on holiday and the Aus market wallowed.

But, it did not go below the established resistance of 5100 and by the time I had a look, at around 11pm, it was struggling up. The US30 had also come off the bottom and the futures (Marketwatch Report) were showing a modest bit of enthusiasm.

The Aussie200 was closing at midnight.

My conclusion (guess?) was that the spike down after the Fed announcement would be reversed and that while normally the traders would want to eat their Easter eggs without long positions, they would have to scramble back into the market if it decided to go long last night.

If it did so, then waiting out the Aussie200 would be a mistake since it would gap up on opening.

So, at around 11pm I took two small long positions. One in the Assie200 at 5179 and the other in the US30 at 12,166.

But, that was lucky too, I suppose.

Have a happy and safe Easter.


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[tech/a]

no one's going to believe it, but

Yep your right.

A post 5 mins after your pretend trade was supposedly taken and you'd have restored some credibility.
Not at 6 in the morning when youve woken to a US rally.

 

[DialecticBlue]

This ain’t kindergarten of the air. I am not making any recommendations and all my posts to date, except that one, have been posted in real time. You can believe me or not, couldn’t give a toss really.

 

[tech/a]

This is now likely to be a sustained run I'm still favoring this analysis.



For 3 main reasons.

(1) The weakening of the Aussi $ against the Green back.
(2) Weakening Gold price dramatic and sustained.
(3) Weakening of Oil prices.

Technically I think the chart is self evident.
Possible end to wave 5 and "A" in this corrective move.
Lower targets mentioned are still highly likely but are more likely to be hit on the leg "C" after "B" later in the year.
This rise could be sharp.